Almost all Republicans will vote for Trump this fall Michael Tesler - January 25, 2024 Ignore recent exit polls to the contrary. Minds will change by November.
Will foreign policy actually matter in the 2024 U.S. election? Elizabeth N. Saunders - September 21, 2023 It may not matter much to voters, but foreign policy is definitely on the ballot.
It’s been a great nine years for TMC political science analysis Kim Yi Dionne, John Sides, and Henry Farrell - December 31, 2022 We’ve published thousands of articles. Here are some of our editors’ favorites.
China’s top leadership excludes women for the first time in two decades Shan-Jan Liu - November 10, 2022 Is Xi Jinping’s new all-male Politburo backing away from the communist party’s commitment to advancing women?
The 9th Circuit live-streams all of its arguments. Will that spread? Christopher D. Kromphardt - September 13, 2022 Many federal appeals courts have been live-streaming audio, at a minimum, during the pandemic. They may or may not continue.
The Kansas abortion vote, in one graph Nathaniel Birkhead - August 5, 2022 Turnout and timing proved critical to Tuesday’s voting
A third party could be successful. But probably not this one. Seth Masket - August 3, 2022 To win voters, a party has to stand for something. But what would the Forward Party do in office?
How D.C. could decide the next presidential election Clarence Lusane - July 19, 2022 Washington’s lack of representation reveals several cracks in American democracy
Will Biden and Trump face off again in 2024? Peter Enns and Jonathon Schuldt - July 13, 2022 Conventional wisdom says it’s too soon to tell. Our research suggests otherwise.
Putin’s warning about Russian ‘fifth columns’ has a long, sordid lineage Scott Radnitz and Harris Mylonas - March 30, 2022 He is suggesting that anyone with a Western lifestyle could be a traitor
Even after Albright, foreign policy leaders are still mostly men Tiffany Barnes, Diana O'Brien, and Bomi K. Lee - March 28, 2022 Our research explores what happens when women reach high positions
Despite Manchin and Sinema, Democrats are more united than they’ve been for decades Adam Hilton - January 24, 2022 Since the 1960s, the Democratic Party has been dismantled and rebuilt in a strongly progressive direction
President of Honduras is a former first lady. Expect to see more former first ladies running for office. Ignacio Araya and Carolina Guerrero Valencia - December 9, 2021 Research explores this growing trend in Latin America
Colin Powell was a paradoxical man in a polarized time Clarence Lusane - November 2, 2021 He joined the Republican Party just as it was veering away from him.
How did 9/11 change South Asian Americans’ identities and politics? Sangay Mishra - September 17, 2021 Being targets of racial and religious hatred unified them behind the Democrats
White Republicans and White Democrats are moving farther apart on race. Or is that just an education gap? Scott Harris - July 21, 2021 To find out, I looked at six ways to measure White attitudes on race — and how those influenced their votes.
This is how Biden eked out his 2020 victory David Brady and Brett Parker - February 12, 2021 In a divided country, elections are won on the margin
Which Republicans are most likely to think the election was stolen? Those who dislike Democrats and don’t mind white nationalists. Joshua Tucker, Jonathan Nagler, and Jan Zilinsky - January 19, 2021 That includes plenty of Republicans with college educations
Despite the 2020 election results, you can still trust polling. Mostly. Robert Y. Shapiro - December 2, 2020 Yes, there’s a problem with pre-election polling. But mass opinion polls don’t have that problem.
Which 2020 election polls were most — and least — accurate? Kyle Endres and Costas Panagopoulos - November 25, 2020 Some were on the nose. Overall, though, they did worse than in 2016.
Why so many Republican officials went along with Trump’s fraud claims Ryan L. Claassen, Michael J. Ensley, and Barry Ryan - November 24, 2020 My party is trying to win. Your party is trying to cheat.
Biden’s win shows that suburbs are the new swing constituency John Curiel and Charles Stewart III - November 23, 2020 The urban-rural divide is reshaping American politics
Arizona may go for Biden. That took 20 years of grassroots organizing. Erin Mayo-Adam - November 12, 2020 My research examines what brought together Latino, immigrant, labor and LGBTQ community organizers into a coalition that gets out votes
What happened to that ‘blue wave’? Sam Rosenfeld, Daniel Galvin, and Daniel Schlozman - November 10, 2020 Democratic Party moderates and progressives are blaming each other. Here’s what our research suggests.
Trump makes more voters feel bad than Biden does. That’s a problem for the president. Kimberly Gross and Danny Hayes - November 1, 2020 Our poll suggests Americans’ emotions are endangering his reelection bid
One in four Latinos voted for Trump last time. They’ll likely do so again. David Leal and Álvaro J. Corral - November 1, 2020 The Latino groups that lean Republican are the segments that are growing
The ‘Trump Pride’ rally won’t win over LGBTQ voters. So why hold it? Zein Murib, Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte, Phillip Ayoub, and Gabriele Magni - October 26, 2020 Welcome to “homonationalism,” or justifying anti-immigrant policies by arguing that immigrants threaten gay rights.
The Trump campaign claims it wants a foreign policy debate. That’s not what we’re likely to get. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 21, 2020 But foreign policy will definitely be on the ballot on Nov. 3
Are influence campaigns trolling your social media feeds? Meysam Alizadeh, Joshua Tucker, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Cody Buntain - October 12, 2020 New research shows how citizens can know in real time.
Allegations of fraud weakened voter confidence in the 2016 election. That could happen again. Bethany Albertson - October 7, 2020 Fraud allegations make people less likely to say that the loser should concede. That varies by party.
Tonight Kamala Harris may need to prove she’s tough, to beat gender stereotypes. That affects foreign policy. Joshua Schwartz and Christopher W. Blair - October 7, 2020 Gender stereotypes push women leaders to be ‘iron ladies’ rather than peacemakers
Tonight, Biden could use Trump’s returns to shift the debate on taxes Vanessa Williamson - September 28, 2020 The Democrats may return to their roots and paint Republicans as the party of big business corruption
Identity politics can help Biden win in November Christopher Stout - September 16, 2020 Appeals for racial equity can motivate Democrats to vote.
Three things to know about military endorsements for the 2020 campaign Zachary E. Griffiths and Michael Robinson - August 28, 2020 Retired military figures offer endorsements in every presidential election. But these testimonials may not have much effect.
Kamala Harris is likely to bring in Indian American voters, this research finds Sara Sadhwani - August 14, 2020 Indian Americans are especially likely to vote when another Indian American is on the ballot — more so than people of other minority racial or ethnic identities.
Do vice-presidential picks matter? Kyle Kopko and Christopher J. Devine - August 13, 2020 Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris as his running mate. Here’s what we know about whether that will help him.
Who thinks that Latinos shouldn’t be able to vote? Mark D. Ramirez and David A. M. Peterson - August 9, 2020 Here’s how our new study measured this under-acknowledged form of racism.
The movement against coronavirus lockdowns is still going — and still angry. Rachel Meade - August 6, 2020 This isn’t an astroturf movement. These populists deeply distrust elites for leaving them behind.
Attacking LGBT life helped the right-wing Polish president win reelection — barely Phillip Ayoub - July 21, 2020 The Polish LGBT movement and its allies are responding with innovative tactics
Trump is going back to holding rallies. He might be helping Biden. Jordan Peterson and Boris Heersink - June 17, 2020 His campaign visits in 2016 also mobilized donations by Democrats
Does Biden have a problem with African American voters? Rob Griffin and Dan Cox - May 27, 2020 New data finds young black Americans aren’t as enthusiastic about Biden — or opposed to Trump — as their elders
Donald Trump’s problems with senior voters started long before the coronavirus Robert Griffin and John Sides - May 25, 2020 Biden’s appeal to seniors has flattened
Trump-Biden voters could decide the 2020 election Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin - May 19, 2020 Nine percent of Trump’s 2016 voters say they’re planning to vote for Biden, our data suggest.
More online campaigning in 2020 may invite more foreign interference in the U.S. election Brigitte Hugh and Anna O. Pechenkina - May 13, 2020 New research shows how Russian-sponsored accounts targeted U.S. voters on the right and left
Having a woman of color as his running mate could help Joe Biden. This explains how. Keith Baker and Christopher Stout - May 6, 2020 Trump will attack him on race. Our research shows that this could help neutralize those attacks.
Yes, Biden is more likely than Sanders to beat Trump. Here’s how we know. Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke - March 23, 2020 We examined presidential election data over 100 years.
The CDC isn’t favoring Trump states with coronavirus spending Nicholas G. Napolio - March 19, 2020 Sometimes presidents shift money toward ‘their’ voters. This is different.
Democrats named Biden, Sanders and Warren as their top picks 18 months ago. What did the primaries change? Peter Enns and Jonathon Schuldt - March 16, 2020 Our research reveals some flaws in the primary system
Trump’s rhetoric does encourage open prejudice and bias. We checked. Sono Shah, Loren Collingwood, Karthick Ramakrishnan, Jennifer Merolla, and Benjamin Newman - March 10, 2020 When other politicians don’t object, it amplifies that ‘Trump effect’
If Sanders pulls ahead, could superdelegates deny him the Democratic nomination? Joshua T. Putnam - March 5, 2020 Well, maybe. This explains how.
Who are black voters supporting in 2020? Here’s what we might learn from South Carolina. David Darmofal - February 26, 2020 It’s complicated.
Trump tweets that he’s America’s chief law enforcement officer. That’s only true if others let him be. William D. Adler - February 19, 2020 Impartial law enforcement is critical for democracy.
For the Super Bowl, Bloomberg and Trump are each spending $10 million on ads. Travis N. Ridout and Erika Franklin Fowler - February 1, 2020 How unusual is it for a contender for a party’s presidential nomination to drop so much cash on a single ad? Very.
Are Democrats really in disarray? Don’t underestimate their unity. John Sides - January 31, 2020 A new survey shows that Democrats like their candidates and — surprise! — don’t like Trump
How are Iowa voters picking candidates? Michael Greenberger, Marc J. Hetherington, David A. M. Peterson, Colin Case, and Abby Cassario - January 27, 2020 You’ve probably never considered this quality
Don’t expect Congress to rein in Trump’s use of military force in the Middle East Douglas Kriner - January 6, 2020 Presidents usually want Congress to approve their military decisions. Lawmakers usually want to stay out of it.
‘The Resistance’ built grass-roots groups across the U.S. Will the Democratic Party put that energy to work in 2020? Leah E. Gose - December 31, 2019 Here’s what these women — and they’re mostly women — are doing in swing states.
White evangelicals fear atheists and Democrats would strip away their rights. Why? Paul Djupe - December 23, 2019 Right-wing media is warning of a civil war — and urging evangelicals to stock up on guns
93 percent of Confederate monuments are still standing. Here’s why. Tyler Camarillo, Tyler Johnson, Ray Block, Jr., Kathleen Tipler, Julian Wamble, Jared Clemons, Chryl Laird, and Andrea Benjamin - December 16, 2019 Local governments are often banned from removing them
The impeachment hearings haven’t changed public opinion. This explains why. Michael Tesler - December 15, 2019 Three factors make opinion difficult to shift.
The ‘skinny’ articles of impeachment mean more than you may think Sarah Burns - December 13, 2019 Here’s how they’re like — and unlike — past impeachment charges.
Russia wants more influence in Africa. It’s using disinformation to get there. Shelby Grossman - December 2, 2019 Facebook says the oligarch behind the Internet Research Agency is involved.
Racially divisive parties have more voters now, but voters aren’t becoming more racist. What explains this? Sheri Berman - December 1, 2019 Populists thrive when the mainstream left and right focus on identity politics.
How women candidates are making girls feel better about politics David Campbell and Christina Wolbrecht - November 22, 2019 In 2018, the more women candidates running in a community, the more girls felt that the political system was responsive.
Older voters really like Joe Biden. That’s good news and bad news for him. Martin Wattenberg - November 19, 2019 Hillary Clinton never overcame her deficit among younger voters.
Did Hillary Clinton’s criticism help or hurt Tulsi Gabbard’s candidacy? David A. M. Peterson - November 6, 2019 Here’s what our research found.
Was Rep. Katie Hill held to a higher standard than men in Congress? This research suggests she was. Michael Tesler - November 4, 2019 Society expects women to be more honest and ethical than men — and punishes them more when they’re not
Think celebrities get punished for being political? In fact, they get retweeted. Joshua Tucker, Jonathan Nagler, Jan Zilinsky, and Cristian Vaccari - October 27, 2019 Michael Jordan’s supposed dictum — “Republicans buy sneakers, too” — may be outdated.
Would a ‘not guilty’ impeachment verdict help Trump? Martin Wattenberg - October 24, 2019 It didn’t help Bill Clinton
Who’s the most electable Democrat? It might be Warren or Buttigieg, not Biden. Cory McCartan - October 22, 2019 A study examines who might do best in the electoral college.
The Obama effect has helped Joe Biden with black voters. Will it last? Michael Tesler - October 7, 2019 With or without the Ukraine issues, Biden needs African American voters to win the Democratic nomination.
The Indian prime minister and Trump addressed a Houston rally. Who was signaling what? Devesh Kapur - September 29, 2019 Here’s why Indian Americans are conflicted about the U.S. president.
Why are Republicans silent about the Ukraine whistleblower scandal? This one chart explains. Michael Tesler - September 24, 2019 Comparing the political fortunes of Lindsey Graham and Jeff Flake tells you a lot.
The Democratic candidates are unabashedly liberal. Is that what Democratic voters want? Martin Wattenberg - September 12, 2019 More and more, Democrats think about policy and ideology when they think about politics.
Did El Paso show us that white supremacists are a serious threat? Few Republicans think so. Michael Tesler - August 7, 2019 Republicans see the news media as a much greater threat than white supremacists.
Why didn’t more congressional Republicans condemn Trump’s racist tweets about the ‘Squad’? This graph explains. Jan Zilinsky - July 19, 2019 Look at the kind of district each represents, and their responses make more sense.
John Bolton is warning of a “Clash of Civilizations” with China. Here are the five things you need to know. Paul Musgrave - July 18, 2019 Academics and experts say that the “clash of civilizations” argument is misleading and destabilizing.
Here’s why Pelosi won’t allow the House to pursue impeachment — at least not yet Sarah Binder - June 14, 2019 But the speaker is giving investigating committees more freedom — and that matters.
Jeff Bezos’s new plans for space have stirred up old fights in science fiction Henry Farrell - May 10, 2019 Is planet Earth all that we have, or do we need to go to the stars?
On ‘Game of Thrones,’ Daenerys Targaryen faces a sexist double bind — like so many female leaders Michael Tesler - May 10, 2019 Or let’s put it this way: Is she “electable”?
Uber issues its IPO this week. Tomorrow its drivers are threatening a worldwide strike. Ashley Nunes - May 7, 2019 Who’s for — and who’s against — regulating its relationship with its workers?
Can Trump still install a loyalist at the Fed? Mark Spindel and Sarah Binder - May 6, 2019 Maybe. But he has to choose them a little more carefully.
The attorney general’s FBI conspiracy theory is all conspiracy and no theory Henry Farrell - April 16, 2019 (Courtesy of Princeton University Press)Russell Muirhead and Nancy Rosenblum’s new
Yes, Lori Lightfoot’s election as Chicago mayor was historic. But how will she govern? Thomas Ogorzalek and Dorian T. Warren - April 10, 2019 Let’s look at the evidence.
Pete Buttigieg is the first U.S. presidential candidate in a same-sex marriage. Here are 3 reasons that matters. Adam McMahon - April 9, 2019 Kavin Burkhalter, a volunteer coordinator for Democratic presidential candidate Pete
Holding their convention in Wisconsin could help Democrats in 2020. Here’s the evidence. Christopher J. Devine - March 17, 2019 Not visiting Wisconsin didn’t decide the 2016 election. But what about four years later?
Why are urban and rural areas so politically divided? Rahsaan Maxwell - March 5, 2019 Rural residents feel left behind by the globalized economy and alienated from big cities’ multiculturalism.
How Donald Trump helped turn teenage girls into political activists David Campbell and Christina Wolbrecht - February 28, 2019 It could get them involved in politics for a lifetime.
People used to joke about ‘Democrats in disarray.’ They’re not joking now. Henry Farrell - January 30, 2019 The comedian Will Rogers famously joked: “I am not a
What political science tells us about electoral fraud and protest Joshua Tucker - January 25, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83130" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (FILE) - A wounded protester as
What the Mattis resignation tells us about how Trump is damaging the military’s credibility Michael Robinson - December 21, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81861" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Defense Secretary Jim Mattis welcomes Vice
Is Texas finally turning blue? We looked at the electorate to find out. Juan Huerta and Beatriz Cuartas - December 18, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81680" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Beto O'Rourke, then running for the
Democracy is under threat in Hungary, Venezuela and Turkey. Could the U.S. be next? Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman - December 6, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81053" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump talks with reporters on
What can House Democrats accomplish with their new oversight and investigative powers? Eric Schickler and Douglas Kriner - November 28, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80751" align="aligncenter" width="960"] House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks
Secret groups of Democratic women are organizing deep in Republican territory Van Duyn - November 26, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80620" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Kellie Macdonald, left, and Michelle Pellegri
The 2018 blue wave included quite a few LGBT wins — even though voters are still wary of gay and trans candidates. Gabriele Magni and Andrew Reynolds - November 25, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80572" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) declares victory
Is Trump country really better off under Trump? No. It’s falling further behind. Anthony Orlando - November 18, 2018 Two years have passed since Donald Trump made his famous
Why we’re still waiting for election results from Florida and Georgia — and why newly counted ballots favor Democrats Charles Stewart III - November 14, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80200" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A worker loads a ballot into
Here are 4 things to expect from a new, Trumpier, more polarized Congress Sarah Binder - November 7, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79950" align="aligncenter" width="960"] House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a
Here’s how female candidates can sway fathers’ votes — if their first child is a daughter Tatishe M. Nteta, Jesse H. Rhodes, Jill Greenlee, and Elizabeth Sharrow - November 3, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79748" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton celebrates on stage after