Super Tuesday scrambled the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, thinning what had been a 20-person field to two serious contenders: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former vice president Joe Biden. Biden has 433 delegates to Sanders’s 388, with California still tallying results — but there are more than 2,000 delegates still to be allocated.
Here’s the unknown quantity: 771 superdelegates remain unpledged. Superdelegates are elected officials and Democratic National Committee members who are automatically delegates at the national convention. They have been a part of the Democratic nomination process since 1984, and make up more than 16 percent of all the delegates — and nearly one-third of those needed to clinch the nomination if they voted as a unified bloc for one candidate.
But 2020 is different, with changed rules. Superdelegates no longer have guaranteed voting privileges at the Democratic national convention, which this year will be held July 13-16 in Milwaukee.
In 2016, most superdelegates endorsed Hillary Clinton before anyone voted — and Sanders’s campaign complained about their influence and power. To resolve the difficulties, the Democratic National Committee adopted revamped rules. Now, superdelegates can’t vote on the first ballot at the national convention — unless one candidate controls so many pledged delegates that superdelegates couldn’t overturn that victory. Given Super Tuesday’s results, a superdelegate rubber stamp on the first ballot may not be likely.
But there are ways in which superdelegates could affect the outcome of the nomination. Let’s look at three scenarios.
1. Sanders enters the convention with a majority of pledged delegates
This seems clear but is not. Sanders could enter the convention with 1,991 pledged delegates or more — a majority plus one or more — and still technically lose the nomination. That’s because superdelegates can vote on procedure — for example, on the rules of the convention. So if Sanders controlled 1,991 or more pledged delegates, a unified bloc of non-Sanders delegates plus a unified group of superdelegates could possibly vote together to change the temporary rules now in place — and allow superdelegates to vote in that first round of balloting.
But just because it’s possible doesn’t mean it’s likely. Breaking from the “unity” rules would bring attacks on the nomination’s legitimacy. Any potential coalition between superdelegates and delegates pledged to candidates other than Sanders would probably split apart under the pressure. But it’s still a possibility.
2. Sanders arrives at the convention with a plurality of pledged delegates
If the Vermont senator gets to the end of primary season with a plurality of pledged delegates — more than anyone else, but not enough to win outright on the first ballot — that procedural maneuver might strike delegates and superdelegates as less treacherous. But it would depend on the size of the plurality — and whether Biden could pull together the majority of pledged delegates against Sanders and/or bring in the superdelegates.
The smaller the Sanders plurality, the more likely it is that Biden would emerge as the nominee. If Biden arrives with majority support of all non-Sanders pledged delegates, then superdelegates would not be necessary to ensure his nomination on the first ballot. What’s more, it would be easier for the delegates pledged to candidates other than either Biden or Sanders to hold together against Sanders, if they wished.
But the closer Sanders gets to having 1,991 pledged delegates, the winning number, the harder it would be for any small majority against him to stay together.
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3. No one gets to the end of primary season with even a convincing plurality of pledged delegates
However implausible that may seem after Tuesday, it’s still possible. In such a scenario, superdelegates could be allowed to vote on the first ballot simply to resolve the nomination. Again, that could happen only if a majority of all delegates agreed to adopt a changed package of rules. But in such a scenario, the convention might instead change the rules to allow a plurality winner to travel a path of least resistance to win. For instance, if all the delegates see are dead ends, with discouraged Sanders supporters unwilling to turn out for the general election and a loss in November, then the easiest resolution may be to allow a plurality winner.
Each convention adopts the rules that will govern it. Changing the status quo can be difficult, especially when rules decisions have clear winners and losers. Voting to allow a candidate with a plurality of delegates to win might seem a small enough change that most delegates would agree to it. But that, too, would probably bring questions about the process’s legitimacy, something the Democratic Party doesn’t want as it attempts to unseat President Trump.
In the end, superdelegates can affect the convention process, most meaningfully on any procedural vote. But political forces would make that a difficult decision for a convention to make.
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Joshua T. Putnam (@FHQ) is a political scientist who runs the elections blog FrontloadingHQ and is founder of the political consulting firm FHQ Strategies, both of which focus on the delegate selection rules of the presidential nomination process.