Can the U.S. pressure Israel to end the war? Jeremy Pressman - February 12, 2024 The U.S. government has a long history of trying to restrain Israel, with mixed success.
Will protests over the Israel-Hamas war shift U.S. policy? Marc Lynch, Jeremy Pressman, and Jay Ulfelder - October 27, 2023 Two experts share their insights on the growing number of U.S. protest events.
It’s been a great nine years for TMC political science analysis Kim Yi Dionne, John Sides, and Henry Farrell - December 31, 2022 We’ve published thousands of articles. Here are some of our editors’ favorites.
Tina Kotek was elected governor of Oregon, thanks to these 3 factors Rafael Silva-Molina and Christopher Stout - November 14, 2022 After an unexpectedly tight race, Oregon’s streak of Democratic governors continues.
Win or lose, progressive challengers have influenced the Democrats’ agenda Amelia Malpas - September 29, 2022 When ‘primaried’ by progressives, Democratic incumbents shift further left, research finds
Will Biden’s age keep him from being reelected? Jennifer Wolak and Damon C. Roberts - July 20, 2022 Young people are the most critical of older politicians, our research finds
Will Biden and Trump face off again in 2024? Peter Enns and Jonathon Schuldt - July 13, 2022 Conventional wisdom says it’s too soon to tell. Our research suggests otherwise.
Congress is polarized. Fear of being ‘primaried’ is one reason. Richard C. Barton - June 9, 2022 As incumbents face more primary challenges from the extremes, expect a more gridlocked Congress, my research suggests
How politically divided is the U.S.? It’s complicated but quantifiable. Mary Catherine Sullivan and John Geer - June 6, 2022 Our new measure of national unity examines shifts over decades
Despite Manchin and Sinema, Democrats are more united than they’ve been for decades Adam Hilton - January 24, 2022 Since the 1960s, the Democratic Party has been dismantled and rebuilt in a strongly progressive direction
Congress failed to block the sale of missiles to Saudi Arabia. Why? Alexandra Stark - December 23, 2021 Just voting on the measure helps draw Americans’ attention to the Saudi role in Yemen’s war
Does funding help encourage women to run for legislative office? Season Hoard, Ragnhild Muriaas, and Amy G. Mazur - September 28, 2021 Research explains when political financing works — and when it doesn’t
Why the Pentagon can’t fully account for all its assets — in Afghanistan or anywhere else Christian I. Bale - September 22, 2021 Incomplete audits make wasteful spending more likely
If Democrats want to go big on social protection, taxing rich people won’t be enough Kimberly Morgan - September 14, 2021 The plans are ambitious. In Biden’s words, ‘Somebody has got to pay.’ But who?
20 years after 9/11, the U.S. is again in a great power confrontation James Goldgeier - September 9, 2021 The end of the Cold War scrambled U.S. foreign policy — and then 9/11 scrambled it again. Here’s what remains the same.
A majority of Americans support ‘Bidenomics.’ The pandemic changed minds dramatically. Shaun P. Hargreaves Heap, Nina Sophie Weber, Konstantinos Matakos, Christel Koop, and Asli Unan - April 30, 2021 Watching the death toll and economic devastation transformed views on taxing corporations and the wealthy, our research suggests.
Biden told big multinational corporations to “get real” about paying taxes. Here’s what he plans to do Todd N. Tucker - April 5, 2021 Businesses have declared ‘all-out war’ on the Biden tax agenda
Biden’s Democrats want to roll back the Reagan era. Are the party and the country ready? Amelia Malpas and Adam Hilton - March 19, 2021 Democrats have been moving to the left since well before the pandemic, our research finds
Democrats moved Biden’s pandemic relief bill quickly. Their work will get a lot harder from here. Sarah Binder - March 8, 2021 Here are four takeaways from Democrats’ response to the pandemic
What the heck is budget reconciliation? Sarah Binder / Managing Editor - February 3, 2021 Your guide to another arcane congressional fiscal tool.
Here’s the problem Biden faces if he picks current lawmakers for his Cabinet. Jonathan Spiegler, Jacob Smith, and Aidan Floyd - December 1, 2020 Let’s count the ways to lose control of a House, Senate or governor’s seat.
Pompeo just visited the West Bank. That’s likely to deepen the partisan division over Israel-Palestine. Jeremy Pressman and Dov Waxman - November 19, 2020 Trump administration decisions on Israel marked a shift away from decades of U.S. policy.
One in four Latinos voted for Trump last time. They’ll likely do so again. David Leal and Álvaro J. Corral - November 1, 2020 The Latino groups that lean Republican are the segments that are growing
Can Congress reclaim authority it has handed over to the president? It’s trying. Soren Dayton and Mort Halperin - August 19, 2020 With their bipartisan backing, these bills could claw back some powers that have shifted to the presidency.
Israel is about to reveal its West Bank annexation plans. How will Congress respond? Shibley Telhami / Managing Editor - June 21, 2020 Our new poll finds Americans are open to questioning the Israeli-U.S. relationship.
America’s classrooms shut down this spring. Civics lessons shifted to the streets. Matthew Nelsen - June 21, 2020 This is what protests teach about political engagement.
Donald Trump’s problems with senior voters started long before the coronavirus Robert Griffin and John Sides - May 25, 2020 Biden’s appeal to seniors has flattened
Under Trump, Democrats and Republicans have never been more divided — on nearly everything Larry Bartels - May 20, 2020 And they are holding tightly to their party identities
More online campaigning in 2020 may invite more foreign interference in the U.S. election Brigitte Hugh and Anna O. Pechenkina - May 13, 2020 New research shows how Russian-sponsored accounts targeted U.S. voters on the right and left
The Wisconsin primary had extraordinarily high voter turnout Richard H. Pildes and Charles Stewart III - April 15, 2020 We analyzed this two ways. The result was the same: Unexpectedly high rates of voting, despite the chaos.
Sanders is out. Does that mean that ‘the party decides’ after all? Adam Hilton - April 9, 2020 A look at this year’s primaries shows it’s more complicated than that.
Sanders was losing to Biden anyway. But he lost more in areas with coronavirus cases. James Bisbee and Dan Honig - April 1, 2020 A study found evidence that coronavirus-induced anxiety prompted a political “flight to safety” that cost Sanders votes.
Yes, Biden is more likely than Sanders to beat Trump. Here’s how we know. Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke - March 23, 2020 We examined presidential election data over 100 years.
This 37-year-old book helps the long Democratic primary make sense David A. Hopkins - March 20, 2020 Reforms reduced party bosses’ power to pick a candidate — and handed that power to the media instead.
Many Americans deeply distrust experts. So will they ignore the warnings about coronavirus? Eric Merkley - March 18, 2020 The problem isn’t just partisanship; it’s the anti-intellectualism in American life.
Democrats named Biden, Sanders and Warren as their top picks 18 months ago. What did the primaries change? Peter Enns and Jonathon Schuldt - March 16, 2020 Our research reveals some flaws in the primary system
Biden and Sanders are debating tonight. What got Twitter users buzzing during past Democratic debates? Zhanna Terechshenko, Tom Paskhalis, Niklas Loynes, Megan Brown, and Jonathan Nagler - March 13, 2020 We checked. No candidate’s issues broke out ahead of the rest.
If Biden wins the nomination, will Sanders supporters vote for him? Jarrod Kelly and Eric Loepp - March 12, 2020 Maybe not. They don’t feel loyal to the Democratic Party.
In 2020, conservatives believe they’re battling to save America’s soul by supporting Trump Geneva Cole - March 11, 2020 Here’s what else my research found at CPAC
If Sanders pulls ahead, could superdelegates deny him the Democratic nomination? Joshua T. Putnam - March 5, 2020 Well, maybe. This explains how.
Democrats aren’t voting only on ‘electability.’ They’re just as interested in candidates’ stances on the issues. Barry Burden - March 3, 2020 Here’s what new research shows
Democrats and Republicans both worry about foreign misinformation campaigns. But Republicans also blame journalists. Kimberly Gross and Danny Hayes - February 28, 2020 Here’s what our new poll found.
Why nobody knows how to assess Bloomberg’s chances — including political scientists Caitlin Jewitt - February 28, 2020 Past performance usually does predict results. But we’ve got no precedent for Bloomberg’s approach.
Trump wants a deal with the Taliban. Will it hurt him at home? Michaela Mattes and Jessica Weeks - February 28, 2020 Our research looks at how Americans view hawks and doves.
In South Carolina, Democrats debated when a dictator is really a dictator. So what’s the answer? Valerie Bunce, Karrie J. Koesel, and Jessica Chen Weiss - February 27, 2020 Our new book explains.
Who are black voters supporting in 2020? Here’s what we might learn from South Carolina. David Darmofal - February 26, 2020 It’s complicated.
Several black mayors have endorsed Bloomberg. Will that influence black voters? Andrea Benjamin - February 24, 2020 Some endorsements matter more than others
Sanders and Trump supporters have this quality in common. So do other populist voters. Matthijs Rooduijn, Gijs Schumacher, and Bert N. Bakker - February 21, 2020 Here’s a trait you may not have heard of before
Sanders and Bloomberg want to redistribute wealth. Most millionaires and billionaires don’t. Marko Klašnja, Gonzalo Rivero, and Elizabeth Suhay - February 16, 2020 They think they got rich by working hard and being smart – and deserve every penny.
Can Bernie Sanders break out beyond his base in New Hampshire? Dante J. Scala - February 10, 2020 Flexibility brings in a wider range of voters — and enough delegates to win the nomination
The Democratic nominee is often settled by Super Tuesday. Don’t hold your breath this year. Caitlin Jewitt - February 4, 2020 Here’s the primary calendar, explained
For the Super Bowl, Bloomberg and Trump are each spending $10 million on ads. Travis N. Ridout and Erika Franklin Fowler - February 1, 2020 How unusual is it for a contender for a party’s presidential nomination to drop so much cash on a single ad? Very.
Are Democrats really in disarray? Don’t underestimate their unity. John Sides - January 31, 2020 A new survey shows that Democrats like their candidates and — surprise! — don’t like Trump
The Democratic Party in Iowa changed the caucus rules. There could be controversy. Hollie Gilman - January 31, 2020 Iowa votes on Monday. Here’s how those caucuses really work.
How are Iowa voters picking candidates? Michael Greenberger, Marc J. Hetherington, David A. M. Peterson, Colin Case, and Abby Cassario - January 27, 2020 You’ve probably never considered this quality
Can a woman win the presidency? Even asking the question discourages women from running. Lori Poloni-Staudinger and Cherie Strachan - January 21, 2020 When women run, they win as often as men do. So why don’t more run?
Biden appeals both to black voters — and to white voters suspicious of Black Lives Matter Richard Burke, Nicole Huffman, Connor Munis, and Kal Munis - January 1, 2020 That could help him win the Democratic nomination — and maybe the general election.
These were our 10 most popular posts of 2019 E.J. Graff - December 31, 2019 You were very interested in evidence that could be used in the fierce partisan battles in the U.S.
Would Booker and Castro be in tonight’s debate if polls counted people of color accurately? Matt A. Barreto - December 18, 2019 Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate. Here’s how that skews the results.
Both the Democrats and Republicans were once white majority parties. Now race divides them. Lilliana Mason - December 1, 2019 This creates challenges for racial diversity, but also opportunities.
Who’s most electable? Don’t trust polls that match Democratic candidates against Trump. Robert Griffin - November 21, 2019 They’re measuring who’s most well known, not who’s most likely to win.
Older voters really like Joe Biden. That’s good news and bad news for him. Martin Wattenberg - November 19, 2019 Hillary Clinton never overcame her deficit among younger voters.
Did Hillary Clinton’s criticism help or hurt Tulsi Gabbard’s candidacy? David A. M. Peterson - November 6, 2019 Here’s what our research found.
Think celebrities get punished for being political? In fact, they get retweeted. Joshua Tucker, Jonathan Nagler, Jan Zilinsky, and Cristian Vaccari - October 27, 2019 Michael Jordan’s supposed dictum — “Republicans buy sneakers, too” — may be outdated.
Who’s the most electable Democrat? It might be Warren or Buttigieg, not Biden. Cory McCartan - October 22, 2019 A study examines who might do best in the electoral college.
Republicans’ advantage on national security has faded — and Democratic candidates are responding Michael Robinson - October 20, 2019 The Trump administration keeps moving further from what Americans say they want.
A new poll shows Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic field, with 28 percent. Danny Hayes - October 14, 2019 That’s 7 percent ahead of Sanders and 10 percent ahead of Biden.
The young Climate Strikers marching this week are all fired up and ready to vote. Dana Fisher - September 27, 2019 And if voting doesn’t bring change, expect more confrontational tactics.
The UAW is on strike against General Motors. Here’s what that says about today’s labor movement. Laura C. Bucci - September 19, 2019 What you need to know about why we’re seeing more strikes — and what will affect the outcome.
Here’s how Democratic candidates can change American opinion when talking about inequality Bastian Becker - September 16, 2019 Americans feel uneasy about income gaps that grow from characteristics that are hard or impossible to change.
The Democratic candidates are unabashedly liberal. Is that what Democratic voters want? Martin Wattenberg - September 12, 2019 More and more, Democrats think about policy and ideology when they think about politics.
With Hurricane Dorian looming, Democratic candidates discuss their climate plans tonight Leah C. Stokes - September 3, 2019 Here’s the background you need.
The Democratic candidates promise action on climate change. Here’s what stands in the way. Ashley Nunes - August 7, 2019 It’s not easy being green.
Joe Biden isn’t the only ‘electable’ candidate. Here’s what Democratic primary voters are thinking — and how to change it. Regina Bateson - July 18, 2019 My research shows how candidates can overcome primary voters’ ‘strategic discrimination’
New polling shows how much sexism is hurting the Democratic women running for president. Sam Luks and Brian Schaffner - July 11, 2019 More than a quarter of Democratic primary voters score higher than average on a “hostile sexism” scale.
Watching the Democratic debate tonight — with Twitter on the little screen? Keep this in mind. Shannon C. McGregor - June 26, 2019 When journalists treat Twitter as representing public opinion, they’re misshaping the news.
Uber issues its IPO this week. Tomorrow its drivers are threatening a worldwide strike. Ashley Nunes - May 7, 2019 Who’s for — and who’s against — regulating its relationship with its workers?
Pete Buttigieg is the first U.S. presidential candidate in a same-sex marriage. Here are 3 reasons that matters. Adam McMahon - April 9, 2019 Kavin Burkhalter, a volunteer coordinator for Democratic presidential candidate Pete
Would Iranians welcome a new nuclear deal? Think again. John R. Cookson and Dina Smeltz - March 26, 2019 Trump’s withdrawal has made its citizens cynical about negotiations.
Is Trump a racist? Let’s examine how we define ‘racism.’ Brian Tilley - March 6, 2019 Thinking of racism as an individual moral failing limits what we can do about it.
People used to joke about ‘Democrats in disarray.’ They’re not joking now. Henry Farrell - January 30, 2019 The comedian Will Rogers famously joked: “I am not a
Why is the Senate challenging Trump on Yemen? Jordan Tama - November 30, 2018 Here’s what you need to know.
The DNC voted to strip superdelegates of their powers. Will it matter for 2020? Boris Heersink - September 4, 2018 [caption id="attachment_77305" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A model of the White House
Mexico’s president-elect has offered two important clues about his approach to NAFTA Brian Palmer-Rubin - July 16, 2018 [caption id="attachment_75605" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Andrés Manuel López Obrador at his
What’s next for Mexico? Here are 5 things you need to know. Kenneth Greene - July 6, 2018 [caption id="attachment_75425" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Andrés Manuel López Obrador, winner of
The U.S.-North Korea summit could be Trump’s ‘Nixon-to-China’ moment Michaela Mattes and Jessica Weeks - May 10, 2018 [caption id="attachment_73149" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives
Populists have one big thing right: Democracies are becoming less open Sheri Berman - January 8, 2018 [caption id="attachment_67897" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump visited Nashville to rally
It sure looks as if Kirsten Gillibrand is running for president Sean McElwee and Jon Green - January 1, 2018 Will Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) run for president in 2020?
The Democratic Party’s latest reform commission just met. It’s likely to slash the power of superdelegates. Adam Hilton - December 12, 2017 On Friday and Saturday, the Democratic Party’s Unity Reform Commission
No, the DNC didn’t ‘rig’ the Democratic primary for Hillary Clinton Boris Heersink - November 5, 2017 In November 2017, Donna Brazile — the interim chair of
This new poll shows that populism doesn’t stem from people’s economic distress Kathleen Powers, Evgeniia Iakhnis, and Brian Rathbun - October 19, 2017 [caption id="attachment_52286" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Demonstrators wave signs against social cuts
Politicians take a negative view on trade deals — even the ones they voted for Alexandra Guisinger - October 11, 2017 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Trucks travel on an overpass to
This is what millennials think about the NFL protests Vladimir Medenica and Matthew Fowler - October 5, 2017 Last week, polling data suggested that most Americans think athletes
Unlike Trump, most presidents emphasize our common ideals Mary Stuckey - August 25, 2017 [caption id="attachment_62808" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump answers questions about his
Did enough Bernie Sanders supporters vote for Trump to cost Clinton the election? John Sides - August 24, 2017 On Tuesday night, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was in Detroit
Was Nobel Laureate James Buchanan really opposed to democracy? Not at all. Georg Vanberg - August 4, 2017 [caption id="attachment_61841" align="aligncenter" width="480"] Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at a
Young and old are voting very differently in the U.K. and U.S. That’s a big deal. Pippa Norris - June 14, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59872" align="alignleft" width="960"] Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn casts
Here’s what happened in the first round of France’s presidential election, and what happens next Manuel Reinert - April 25, 2017 http://www.washingtonpost.com/video/world/macron-and-le-pen-faceoff-for-french-presidency/2017/04/24/c44af520-2932-11e7-9081-f5405f56d3e4_video.html On Sunday, French citizens went to the polls in
Denmark already had a Muslim ban. It was just called something else. Samantha Brown - March 23, 2017 [caption id="attachment_55740" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Nyhavn Canal in Copenhagen (iStock)[/caption] The
The Dutch pushed back against Geert Wilders’s ‘Patriotic Spring.’ Here’s what you need to know. Matthew Bergman - March 16, 2017 In the Netherlands, the conservative, pro-market People's Party for Freedom