Most Republican candidates endorse the ‘big lie’ — even when voters don’t Brendan Hartnett and Brian Schaffner - October 12, 2022 We examined whether candidates’ beliefs — for and against the "big lie” — matched up with those of their state’s voters. Nope.
How D.C. could decide the next presidential election Clarence Lusane - July 19, 2022 Washington’s lack of representation reveals several cracks in American democracy
Build Back Better offers pre-K and child-care funding. States might not sign on. Philip Rocco, Daniel Béland, and Alex Waddan - December 15, 2021 These three things help policies succeed
Juneteenth brings together many celebrations, and reminders of the work still ahead Sheena Harris and Keneshia N. Grant - June 18, 2021 For Black Americans, freedom is tied to location — not a date in June
Is your town urban or rural? A lot of money rides on the government’s answer — which may soon change. Zoe Nemerever and Melissa Rogers - April 19, 2021 The Trump administration proposed expanding what is defined as ‘rural’
As Georgia’s new law shows, when Black people gain local power, states strip that power away. Domingo Morel - March 31, 2021 Think of Michigan officials taking over Flint’s water supply
Why Republicans haven’t abandoned Trumpism Pippa Norris - February 8, 2021 Parties can and do change. But these four barriers stand between the Republican Party and moderation.
The Trump years launched the biggest sustained protest movement in U.S. history. It’s not over. Tommy Leung, Nathan Perkins, Jeremy Pressman, Jay Ulfelder, and Erica Chenoweth - February 7, 2021 Here’s what we learned by counting the protests during the past four years
Here’s the problem Biden faces if he picks current lawmakers for his Cabinet. Jonathan Spiegler, Jacob Smith, and Aidan Floyd - December 1, 2020 Let’s count the ways to lose control of a House, Senate or governor’s seat.
Here are six big takeaways from the 2020 elections Emily Thorson and Chris Warshaw - November 7, 2020 Yes, polls are important
Openly LGBTQ candidates are running in record numbers — again Gabriele Magni and Andrew Reynolds - October 27, 2020 Numbers and diversity are increasing every election cycle. Here’s why.
These states are most likely to boost turnout — despite the pandemic Michael J. Pomante II - October 7, 2020 The Cost of Voting Index is keeping tabs on which states have made it easier to vote this year.
U.S. cities and states are discussing reparations for Black Americans. Here’s what’s key. Peter Dixon - August 23, 2020 One lesson from international efforts: Keep reparations distinct from general social support.
Donald Trump’s problems with senior voters started long before the coronavirus Robert Griffin and John Sides - May 25, 2020 Biden’s appeal to seniors has flattened
If Sanders pulls ahead, could superdelegates deny him the Democratic nomination? Joshua T. Putnam - March 5, 2020 Well, maybe. This explains how.
Can Bernie Sanders break out beyond his base in New Hampshire? Dante J. Scala - February 10, 2020 Flexibility brings in a wider range of voters — and enough delegates to win the nomination
The Democratic nominee is often settled by Super Tuesday. Don’t hold your breath this year. Caitlin Jewitt - February 4, 2020 Here’s the primary calendar, explained
Did Hillary Clinton’s criticism help or hurt Tulsi Gabbard’s candidacy? David A. M. Peterson - November 6, 2019 Here’s what our research found.
Who’s the most electable Democrat? It might be Warren or Buttigieg, not Biden. Cory McCartan - October 22, 2019 A study examines who might do best in the electoral college.
D.C. statehood is back on the House’s agenda. Here’s why it faces an uphill battle. Robinson Woodward-Burns - September 19, 2019 Can you say “taxation without representation”?
Democrats want to make D.C a state. Here’s what it would take. Jeffrey W. Ladewig - June 18, 2019 And here’s what it would do to the other states’ seats in Congress.
Surprised by all these abortion bans? Meet Americans United for Life — the most significant antiabortion group you’ve never heard of. Susan Roberts - May 31, 2019 It designs legislation aimed at staying out of the headlines and minimizing backlash.
The Senate confirmed Eric Miller to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals — despite his home state senators’ objections. That’s new. Sarah Binder - February 28, 2019 Here’s what you need to know about the ‘blue slip’ — and how Republicans rejected yet another Senate tradition.
Three takeaways from Congress’s ability to avoid a shutdown — this time around, at least Sarah Binder - February 15, 2019 No one wants the blame for shutting down the government.
The 2019 Women’s March was bigger than you think Jeremy Pressman and Erica Chenoweth - February 1, 2019 After two years of counting political crowds in the United
The shutdown is just the finale. Here are five takeaways from the Republican Congress’s chaotic 2018. Sarah Binder - December 27, 2018 Five takeaways from a year of one-party rule.
What gets ex-prisoners politically and civically involved? Michael Owens and Hannah Walker - September 21, 2018 [caption id="attachment_78059" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A sign directs citizens to a
Breaking border laws is as American as it gets Peter Andreas - July 3, 2018 [caption id="attachment_75142" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Independence Day fireworks explode over the
How will you know if there’s E. coli in your marijuana? No one’s figured out how to test and regulate it yet. Nick Jikomes and Michael Zoorob - March 19, 2018 [caption id="attachment_70691" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A “budtender” helps a customer at the
In December, thousands of Americans protested against the tax plan, for DACA and about all the other usual suspects Jeremy Pressman and Erica Chenoweth - January 25, 2018 This is the 12th installment in a monthly series reporting
The Senate just made it a lot easier for Trump to appoint federal judges, over Democrats’ objections Sarah Binder - November 20, 2017 [caption id="attachment_66461" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E.
More people in the U.S. protested in June than in any month since the January Women’s Marches. Jeremy Pressman, Erica Chenoweth, and Devin Finn - July 25, 2017 This is the sixth installment in a monthly series reporting
Despite Trump, many cities and states are fighting climate change. Including Pittsburgh. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo - June 6, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59367" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Demonstrators protest President Trump's decision to
The 40-year decline in the tolerance of college students, graphed John Sides - March 9, 2017 [caption id="attachment_55140" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Middlebury College students turn their backs
There are huge holes in how the U.S. states investigate politicians’ conflicts of interest Pedro Cruz, Mike Beaudet, and John Wihbey - January 12, 2017 [caption id="attachment_50207" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A voter casts a ballot behind
Why don’t more Americans vote? Maybe because they don’t trust U.S. elections. Pippa Norris, Max Grömping, and Holly Garnett - December 26, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49104" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Wristbands for voters at a polling
The Democrats are surprisingly unified. That should help Hillary Clinton. Sidney Milkis and Boris Heersink - August 3, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44902" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reacts
Here’s what was surprising about the protesters at the Democratic convention this week Michael Heaney - July 30, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44737" align="aligncenter" width="1429"] Protesters marched on July 24, the
Are Clinton’s supporters to the right of Sanders’s on the Middle East? Hardly. Shibley Telhami - July 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44529" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks as Hillary
Did Tim Kaine need to flip his position on the TPP to win Sanders’s supporters? Nope. Dina Smeltz - July 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44503" align="aligncenter" width="960"] U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont delivers
Trump and Sanders aren’t blazing new trails. Populism has run through U.S. politics for a very long time. Noam Gidron and Bart Bonikowski - April 28, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39837" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses
Who agrees with Bernie Sanders on Israel? Large numbers of Americans. Dina Smeltz - April 22, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39277" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Bernie Sanders gestures during the Democratic
This is why Bernie Sanders’s criticism of Israel won’t hurt him in today’s New York primary Dov Waxman - April 19, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39277" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Sen. Bernie Sanders gestures during the
Bernie Sanders thinks the Democratic primary process ‘distorts reality.’ Does history back this up? Jeffery Jenkins and Boris Heersink - April 17, 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont recently said his
New poll shows Trump supporters more likely to fear a majority-minority U.S. Tatishe M. Nteta and Brian Schaffner - March 5, 2016 [caption id="attachment_36767" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump argues
How do primary voters decide between ‘electable’ and ideologically pure? Our research surprised us. Nora Lenhard, Margot Graham, Hazel Millard, Bertram Johnson, and Andrew Plotch - February 26, 2016 In presidential primaries, a voter may agree with one candidate
Will superdelegates pick the Democratic nominee? Here’s everything you need to know. Stephen Voss - February 26, 2016 [caption id="attachment_34791" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (left)
Everything you need to know about delegate math in the presidential primary John Sides - February 16, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35097" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (Joshua Lott for The Washington Post;
Once again, Ted Cruz has an under-appreciated strength in New Hampshire Will Cubbison, Josh Putnam, Craig Goodman, and Boris Shor - February 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35484" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Duane and Joyce Cate leave their
Bill O’Reilly will flee to Ireland if Sanders is elected. He’s in for a shock. Henry Farrell - January 16, 2016 Bill O'Reilly, the host of Fox News's "The O'Reilly Factor,"
Has Britain’s Labour party already lost the 2020 election? Andrew Gelman - September 14, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29358" align="aligncenter" width="982"] Jeremy Corbyn speaks on stage after
Has Britain's Labour party already lost the 2020 election? Andrew Gelman - September 14, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29358" align="aligncenter" width="982"] Jeremy Corbyn speaks on stage after
Polls show a Biden presidential run would hurt Clinton, not Sanders Patrick Egan - September 6, 2015 In Atlanta on Friday morning, Vice President Biden confirmed for
A majority in every state favors a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants John Sides - February 25, 2015 The good folks at the Public Religion Research Institute have
Same-sex divorce rate not as low as it seemed Andrew Gelman - December 16, 2014 Earlier today I reported on a study by M. V.
Same-sex couples less likely to get divorced than straight couples . . . so far Andrew Gelman - December 15, 2014 [Update: I think these calculations of the dissolution rate of
Democrats pull ahead in NYT wedding announcements that have a party identification Andrew Gelman - April 3, 2014 After seeing my post on the sister blog that discussed
Republicans have a 44% chance of taking the Senate. But it may be much higher. John Sides - January 27, 2014 [caption id="attachment_5758" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press)[/caption] At
Demographics != destiny Andrew Gelman - June 20, 2013 Louis points to this news article by John Harwood, "Dissent
The State of the Presidential Race in Kenya Joshua Tucker - February 16, 2013 Continuing our series of election reports, we are pleased to
Bring back pork barrel spending Eric Patashnik - January 14, 2013 Many people complain about pork barrel spending, but pork adapts
Earning More Seats with Fewer Votes: Why the 1996 House Election Results are Not Necessarily a Good Analogy for 2012 Joshua Tucker - December 6, 2012 The following is a guest post from Yale University political
The electoral college favors voters in small states (on average), not large states Andrew Gelman - July 28, 2012 Jonathan Bernstein writes: The big, urban states traditionally did very
South Carolina Has Fewer Women in Their Legislature Than Syria John Sides - February 9, 2011 Specifically, a lower percentage of women. Ilya Gerner has "some
Just chaid Andrew Gelman - November 19, 2010 Reading somebody else's statistics rant made me realize the inherent
Lou Dobbs hires illegal immigrants Andrew Gelman - October 7, 2010 This news story (from Isabel Macdonald; I followed the link
Don’t believe everything you see on a graph Andrew Gelman - November 9, 2009 This graph that Brendan Nyhan posted the other day got
Gay marriage: a tipping point? Andrew Gelman - June 12, 2009 Fancy statistical analysis can indeed lead to better understanding. Jeff
Mapping Religiosity in the States John Sides - February 7, 2009 (Be forewarned: a dorky post to follow...) Via CQ, I
Ranking states by the liberalism/conservatism of their voters Andrew Gelman - June 30, 2008 Here's a graph of the 50 states (actually, I think