The self-proclaimed “greatest hostage negotiator in the history of the United States” is returning to the White House. In his first term as president, Donald Trump prized hostage recovery, celebrating captives’ return with photo opportunities in the Oval Office.
As he prepares for a second term, Trump has announced his interest in hostage recovery once again. Weighing in on the ongoing hostage crisis in Gaza, Trump demanded that Hamas release all remaining captives. Of the 250 hostages taken on Oct. 7, 2023, 100 reportedly remain in Gaza, including several American citizens. Trump repeatedly threatened those responsible with “all hell to pay” if the remaining hostages are not released by Inauguration Day.
What’s in store for hostage recovery policy during a second Trump term?
Trump loves this issue
As president, Trump professed to “love” hostage recovery – an issue in which his dealmaker persona comes to the fore. Successful stories appeared to reinforce Trump’s negotiator bona fides, providing victories that were tangible, personal – and made for TV. By inviting former hostages and detainees to the Oval Office, Trump could showcase his core identity as “Dealmaker-in-Chief.”
But Trump also saw recovering U.S. hostages as a vitally important policy issue with substantive heft. When Robert O’Brien replaced John Bolton in 2019 as Trump’s fourth national security advisor, Trump emphasized O’Brien’s hostage recovery successes as key to the decision.
In dozens of interviews I’ve conducted on U.S. hostage recovery policy, former senior officials stress that Trump liked hostage recovery because he believed it was a public relations and political “win.” The Trump team even put a spotlight on hostage recovery during the 2020 Republican National Convention, with a video of former detainees surrounding Trump to thank him for their freedom.
What is Trump’s record on recovering U.S. hostages?
Trump has claimed that his administration secured more hostage releases than any other administration, bringing hostage Americans home from 22 different countries. He also claimed that he did so without ever making concessions. Fact-checkers, however, find these claims are false in several respects.
To be sure, while Trump was in office, dozens of Americans returned from captivity abroad. While no public list verifies that Trump recovered 58 Americans, there were multiple noteworthy hostage recoveries during his first term. American hostages came home from Afghanistan, Iran, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen.
However, Trump was not actually responsible for many of the hostage recoveries that took place during his time in office. For instance, it was the Pakistani military that secured the release of Caitlan Coleman and her husband Joshua Boyle, who had been held by the Haqqani network for five years. A senior congressional aide secured the release of Utah resident Joshua Holt, imprisoned in Venezuela on trumped-up charges. A personal connection to a Lebanese official helped free adventure tourist Sam Goodwin from a Syrian prison.
Among recoveries orchestrated by the Trump White House, concessions played a major role. For instance, the Trump administration brokered prisoner swaps to free Xiyue Wang and Michael White from Iran and Kevin King from Afghanistan. To secure the release of Sandra Loli and Mikael Gidada from Yemen, the Trump administration agreed to swap 250 Houthi rebels held in Oman. (That hostage deal, incidentally, was brokered by Kash Patel – a former deputy assistant to the president who is now Trump’s nominee to lead the FBI.)
Perhaps more surprising was the Trump administration’s focus on pressuring allies to release imprisoned Americans. To release Christian pastors who had been wrongfully detained, Trump pressured Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and levied sanctions against Turkey. Famously, Trump sent hostage envoy Robert O’Brien to Stockholm to pressure the Swedish government to release rapper A$AP Rocky, who had been arrested for assault.
Precise numbers are difficult to tally
Thus, the Trump administration’s claims of successful hostage releases include cases – like A$AP Rocky – that don’t meet the definition of a hostage, as well as hostages that other interlocutors freed. But more important is what Trump’s tally leaves out. While focusing on Sweden and Turkey, Trump failed to resolve many of the most difficult cases of hostage diplomacy, leaving captive Americans behind in Afghanistan, China, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.
Because most hostage takings are not publicly reported, it’s impossible to know how many Americans were taken hostage during the Trump or Biden administrations. But at least 17 of the 73 American hostages recovered by the Biden administration were taken captive before or during the first Trump term. These hostages include Paul Whelan and Trevor Reed in Russia; Siamak Namazi, the longest confirmed American hostage in Iran; Mark Frerichs, an American contractor who had been kidnapped in Afghanistan; and all remaining American wrongful detainees in Venezuela and China. The “greatest hostage negotiator” was unable to recover any of these men during his time in office.
Less cooperation, more threats in 2025?
There are three central ways U.S. hostage policy is likely to shift when Trump returns to office.
First, we should expect to see less cooperation with Western allies on hostage recovery and prevention. The Biden administration centered friends and allies in its efforts to bring Americans home. This past August, for example, President Joe Biden facilitated a massive, multi-country prisoner swap to recover several Americans wrongfully detained in Russia. In order to bring home Paul Whelan and Evan Gershkovich, Biden convinced the leaders of Germany, Poland, Slovenia, and Norway to release Russian criminals in their own countries, so that Russian President Vladimir Putin would set 16 hostages and political prisoners free. Without President Biden’s close and constructive relationship with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for instance, the deal never would have come together.
We should also expect to see less cooperation in deterrence and prevention. The Biden White House has touted international cooperation as key to preventing future hostage taking. Biden officials have worked closely with Canadian officials, for instance, on Canada’s 2021 Initiative Against Arbitrary Detention in State-to-State Relations. In contrast, Trump in the past often pressured allies and flattered adversaries to gain the release of U.S. hostages. It’s likely we’ll see the new Trump administration conducting hostage policy by reprising similar tactics.
Second, we should expect to see the new Trump White House threaten to use force to bring hostages home – and, perhaps, actually launch armed missions. In my research interviews, former Trump officials often talked about military rescue as an option of first – not last – resort. Surprisingly, they didn’t limit that possibility to attacking armed groups who kidnap foreigners in places like Niger and Somalia. Instead, they speculated about sending U.S. Special Forces to extract wrongfully detained Americans from foreign prisons.
Trump’s nominee to serve as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs has expressed a preference for military action, too. Writing in The Hill in August, former Trump official and negotiator Adam Boehler urged U.S. military action in Gaza – and that article may explain in part why Trump tapped him for the hostage envoy post. Following Trump’s threats to Hamas, Boehler predicted “serious action” if the hostages are not released before Trump returns to office.
Freeing U.S. hostages is far more complicated than it seems
Of course, hostage rescue missions sound great: They hold the promise of saving captives without rewarding hostage takers. As I’ve explained before, however, hostage rescues are incredibly dangerous and seldom succeed. A stealth rescue mission is also when hostages are most likely to die in captivity. By far, the most reliable way to recover hostages alive is to negotiate patiently – over months or even years – for their safe release.
This unpleasant truth presents a dilemma to any leader whose citizens are held hostage abroad. Yes, concessions may help recover captives, but this practice also rewards hostage takers. Critics like Trump’s pick for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), claim that prisoner swaps incentivize more hostage taking in the future. (This question is hotly debated by policymakers and advocates; the limited research on this question is decidedly mixed.)
The third change we can expect to U.S. hostage policy under Trump, then, concerns the type of concessions used to win hostages’ release. The Biden administration orchestrated prisoner exchanges to bring Americans home – at times facing criticism for making concessions. While critics like Rubio note that these hostage deals present a “huge win” for autocrats, Biden always stressed that swaps were the high but vital price to pay to save American lives.
Trump claims to eschew concessions – though the record shows that he has swapped plenty of prisoners. But he seems to prefer less tangible concessions, rewarding some hostage-taking countries by embracing their autocratic rulers. Trump praised Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, for example – after both countries had taken U.S. citizens hostage. Trump framed hostage release as proof of hostage takers’ goodness, not a discrete solution to an asymmetric tool of coercion.
Hostage taking remains a significant problem in U.S. foreign policy, and we will continue to see the need for hostage recovery during Trump’s second term. Judging by his first stint in office and the priorities of his team, we should expect to see hostage takers incur both the wrath and the embrace of the next president of the United States.
