Unpacking Israel’s deterrence strategy after Iran’s missile attack Stacie Goddard and Boaz Atzili - April 25, 2024 A conversation with Boaz Aztili on Israel’s deterrence moves – and Iran's calculations
Why the House Speaker finally greenlit Ukraine aid Sarah Binder - April 23, 2024 There are underappreciated factors behind Rep. Mike Johnson’s shift.
Iran is playing a high-stakes game by attacking Israel Jacquelyn Schneider - April 17, 2024 What political science tells us about conflict, war, and unmanned attacks.
Can the U.S. pressure Israel to end the war? Jeremy Pressman - February 12, 2024 The U.S. government has a long history of trying to restrain Israel, with mixed success.
Pakistan goes to the polls this week. Here’s what to watch. Christopher Clary, Sarah Khan, Zoha Waseem, Yasser Kureshi, and Asfandyar Mir - February 7, 2024 Four experts on Pakistani politics share their insights on the leading parties and candidates, voter turnout, and election integrity.
Did Biden have the authority to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen? Andrew Rudalevige - January 30, 2024 Let’s look at the Constitution, the War Powers Resolution, and what might authorize or constrain military action.
Will the deadly drone attack draw the U.S. into a major war? Stacie Goddard - January 29, 2024 The spiral vs. deterrence model, explained, as violence surges in the Middle East.
Good to Know: Hostage taking and the rise in hostage diplomacy Danielle Gilbert - January 17, 2024 Media stories spotlight the high stakes – and the pressure to bring hostages home.
Why global commerce is now in the crossfire Bruce Jones - January 11, 2024 From the Red Sea to the Baltic and the Pacific, geopolitics are putting global commerce at risk.
The UN set out to protect human rights 75 years ago Kelebogile Zvobgo - December 10, 2023 The Universal Declaration of Human Rights was an important start – but there’s much work still ahead.
Putin’s Russia navigates Middle East conflict and war in Ukraine Joshua Tucker, Samuel Greene, and Kathryn Stoner - November 6, 2023 Two experts discuss the broader impact of the Israel-Hamas war.
What political scientists know about occupation, applied to Gaza Elizabeth N. Saunders, Diana Greenwald, Dana El Kurd, David Edelstein, and Alexander Downes - October 24, 2023 Experts on the politics of foreign occupations tackle big questions in this week’s Good Chat.
How should we think about a mass exodus of Palestinians from Gaza? Elizabeth N. Saunders and Kelly M. Greenhill - October 20, 2023 Governments and non-state actors use mass migration as a tool of war.
Biden will visit Israel during a war. That’s unprecedented. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 17, 2023 The humanitarian crisis and escalation fears heighten uncertainty.
Why the Gaza hostage crisis is different Danielle Gilbert - October 13, 2023 What we know about Hamas hostage-taking and Israel’s hostage recovery policy.
Will the Hamas attack on Israel lead to a broader regional war? Elizabeth N. Saunders and Austin Carson - October 12, 2023 Even bitter adversaries have tools to control escalation.
Gaza and Israel: Five things to watch Marc Lynch - October 9, 2023 Here’s what you need to know following Saturday’s attack by Hamas.
Will foreign policy actually matter in the 2024 U.S. election? Elizabeth N. Saunders - September 21, 2023 It may not matter much to voters, but foreign policy is definitely on the ballot.
Biden’s hostage diplomacy, explained Danielle Gilbert - September 20, 2023 It's a marriage of concessions and sanctions.
Why does Biden want Saudi-Israeli normalization so badly? Marc Lynch - September 20, 2023 The Abraham Accords may define a new regional order.
America and Europe are targeting Russia’s oil profits Henry Farrell and Agathe Demarais / Managing Editor - December 21, 2022 The oil price cap makes it harder for Russia to use oil money to buy weapons and pay soldiers.
How would we know if we were witnessing a revolution in Iran? Charles Kurzman - December 18, 2022 Revolutions are unpredictable. But the Islamic republic itself came to power through a similar scenario.
Why authoritarian governments take hostages Danielle Gilbert - December 11, 2022 It’s not just a terrorist tactic any more.
Russia’s using ‘dark’ tankers to evade Western oil sanctions Jan Stockbruegger - December 7, 2022 Sanctions-busting creates a higher risk of accidents and oil spills, if vessels operate outside global regulations
The West wants to cut off Russia’s oil revenues. Who will that hurt? Jan Stockbruegger - October 20, 2022 The United States and its allies plan to embargo Russian crude oil shipments — and impose a price cap on Russian oil. That might backfire.
If OPEC is a cartel, it’s not a very good one Henry Farrell - October 10, 2022 This book tells you what you need to know about Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and global oil politics
Iraqis voted a year ago but still don’t have a government Hamzeh Hadad - October 10, 2022 Iraq’s democracy depends on consensus — yet parties in the minority in parliament don’t want to take the opposition role
Biden’s broad marijuana pardon has precedents Andrew Rudalevige - October 7, 2022 In some ways, it looks like Jimmy Carter’s amnesty for Vietnam War draft dodgers
Iranian women have been protesting mandatory hijab for decades Mona Tajali - October 2, 2022 Both outside and within Iran’s government, women have been strategizing for this moment. So why did the movement catch fire now?
Iran’s security forces have little incentive to ease up on protesters Roya Izadi - September 30, 2022 Will forces remain loyal to the regime? That might depend on their business networks.
Is Putin vulnerable? One autocracy in Russia may lead to another. Kathryn Stoner - September 27, 2022 Here’s what we know about how autocratic regimes die.
Are Iran’s hijab protests different from past protest waves? Ali Kadivar - September 22, 2022 Broader and broader swaths of society are showing that they’re outraged, with grievances that won’t soon go away.
Presidents can’t declassify documents with Green Lantern superpowers Andrew Rudalevige and Kenneth Mayer - August 18, 2022 Let’s look at the many, many holes in Donald Trump’s theory of executive power.
Do armed drones reduce terrorism? Here’s the data. Matthew Fuhrmann and Joshua Schwartz - August 18, 2022 This research analyzes patterns of terrorism in the 18 countries that utilize drones
Afghanistan’s women in exile continue to push for equality Mona Tajali - August 18, 2022 Activists and former politicians put pressure on the international community regarding concerns over key women’s rights
Can the NPT fulfill its promise to eliminate nuclear weapons? J. Luis Rodriguez - August 1, 2022 Latin American countries will push again for nuclear disarmament at this month’s review conference
How the cyberwar between Iran and Israel has intensified Gil Baram - July 24, 2022 Three things to know about the not-so-covert cyber-operations between these two adversaries
Why further sanctions against North Korea could be tough to add Andrew Yeo - July 5, 2022 If Pyongyang carries out a seventh nuclear test, don’t expect China and Russia to back U.N. Security Council moves
Iraq’s populist leader quit parliament. What happens now? Renad Mansour and Benedict Robin-D’Cruz - June 21, 2022 Rallying anti-establishment protests strengthened Muqtada al-Sadr’s hand in the past. It might not work now.
Why is the Jan. 6 committee holding televised hearings? Sarah Binder - June 13, 2022 The committee wants to get Americans off the sidelines and into the fight to hold Trump accountable for the unprecedented attack on the Capitol
How the Ukraine crisis could make the Syrian civil war worse Tiina Hyyppä and Aaron Pilkington - May 23, 2022 Shifting Russian troops away from Syria risks opening up new threats
Brittney Griner was ‘wrongfully detained.’ What happens now? Danielle Gilbert - May 5, 2022 The State Department announcement gives the U.S. government ways to negotiate for the release of the WNBA star
What rising oil prices tell us about the oil market’s geopolitics Inwook Kim - April 11, 2022 It’s not all about the war in Ukraine
Ukraine war has side effects on Middle East geopolitics Shibley Telhami and Marc Lynch - April 10, 2022 Here’s what our 2022 survey of Middle East scholars found.
Why democracies win more wars than autocracies Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam - March 30, 2022 Like Putin, dictators tend to start risky wars, our research shows
The Ukraine conflict has Persian Gulf monarchies hedging their bets Cinzia Bianco - March 14, 2022 Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates haven’t been aligning with the U.S. — or Russia
The West has hit Russia with tough sanctions. They could be tougher still. Daniel McDowell - March 2, 2022 If Putin escalates the war in Ukraine, here’s what could be next
Turkey announced it would regulate warship access to the Black Sea. Does that change Russia’s strategy? Howard Eissenstat - March 1, 2022 Turkey’s diplomatic balancing act may be behind this move
The Ukraine crisis is now a nuclear crisis Caitlin Talmadge - February 27, 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin just put his nuclear forces on alert
There’s a reason Putin can be so aggressive: Oil. Jeff D. Colgan and Jessica Weeks - February 27, 2022 Putin’s personalist rule leaves few domestic checks on his power.
Biden hopes sanctions will deter Putin. It may not be so easy. Bruce W. Jentleson - February 18, 2022 Steep economic costs may not significantly change Russia’s behavior
Yemen’s Houthi movement stepped up its attacks. That complicates U.S. policy in the region. Tyler B. Parker - January 31, 2022 The U.S. wants to end help the war in Yemen — and secure a nuclear deal with Iran
What do Russia’s cyber moves mean for the Ukraine crisis? Shawn W. Lonergan and Erica D. Lonergan - January 11, 2022 Ambiguous signals raise the risk of miscalculating what’s really going on
Iran passed restrictions on contraception and abortion. Will that distract protesters from the economy? Pardis Mahdavi - December 21, 2021 Controlling women’s bodies may not work as well this round
Scholar Robert L. Jervis passed away this month. He pushed policymakers to see the world’s complexity. Stacie Goddard, Keren Yarhi-Milo, and Jack Snyder - December 14, 2021 Jervis had a boundless curiosity about both theory and policy in international relations.
Qatar’s first elected parliament may have more power than other Persian Gulf legislatures. Here’s why. Dania Thafer - October 13, 2021 The elected-appointed legislator ratio is one key indicator of parliamentary power
Facebook’s global outage wasn’t the result of a hack, but big political questions lurk behind it Laura DeNardis - October 7, 2021 ‘Public’ Internet relies on private networks and technical protocols that have to work in sync
Australia will get nuclear-powered submarines. Some see a proliferation threat. Debak Das - September 23, 2021 The U.S. has shared this type of technology before — with France, in fact.
What happens now to U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan? Sarah Kreps and Paul Lushenko - September 21, 2021 The lack of accountability for civilian casualties in drone strikes isn’t likely to change
Academic experts believe that Middle East politics are actually getting worse Shibley Telhami and Marc Lynch - September 16, 2021 Nearly two-thirds of our recent survey group think the Israeli-Palestinian situation is akin to apartheid
20 years later, America’s ‘War on Terror’ language has gone global Somdeep Sen and John Collins - September 9, 2021 Right-wing governments and movements often use these words to justify authoritarian and racist policies.
20 years after 9/11, the U.S. is again in a great power confrontation James Goldgeier - September 9, 2021 The end of the Cold War scrambled U.S. foreign policy — and then 9/11 scrambled it again. Here’s what remains the same.
The dollar provides the U.S. with enormous power. Will new payment technologies change that? Henry Farrell - September 2, 2021 Europe and China will both find it hard to escape the dollar
Last month, three drones attacked an Israeli tanker. Here’s why that’s something new. James Rogers - August 18, 2021 Will Iran’s ‘shadow war’ slip into the open?
The E.U. is furious that Belarus allowed more than 4,000 migrants to cross into Europe Gerasimos Tsourapas - August 12, 2021 As countries in the global north outsource refugee management to the global south, expect more poor countries to ‘weaponize’ migration.
Northern Afghanistan once kept out the Taliban. Why has it fallen so quickly this time? Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili - July 27, 2021 Political and ethnic tensions have fueled new discord — and the Taliban has capitalized on these grievances
Olympic officials resisted pressure to ban Iran from the Tokyo Games, but they’ve banned teams before Thandiwe Keet, Andrew Bertoli, and Aleksandra Smajevic - July 27, 2021 In these 9 cases, sporting authorities tried to ban a country from international competition — sometimes for years
Iran elected a hard-liner president. What does that mean for the nuclear deal? Henry Rome - June 21, 2021 Ebrahim Raisi’s anti-Western views may limit the benefits that many Iranians hope to see under a revival of the deal
Do cease-fires in Syria work? We checked the data. Sunniva Unn Hustad and Siri Aas Rustad - June 17, 2021 Our research looks at 10 years of truces in Syria.
We know one thing about Iran’s new president, even before this week’s election. He won’t be a reformer. Hossein Mahdavi - June 17, 2021 The consolidation of power within the Revolutionary Guard leaves little room for opposition politicians
Belarus forced down a plane because it couldn’t shut down an app Aliaksandr Herasimenka - May 28, 2021 Telegram became a cornerstone of last summer’s anti-government protests
4 reasons the GOP wouldn’t vote for a Jan. 6 commission Sarah Binder - May 27, 2021 It wasn’t the first filibuster of the year, and it won’t be the last
How can the world hold Belarus accountable? Alexander Cooley - May 25, 2021 Technology has become the ‘long arm’ of authoritarians
When Belarus forced down a plane, it may have committed state-sponsored hijacking Yuval Weber - May 23, 2021 International treaties outlaw false communications that might endanger a flight
Thai protesters don’t like what the king and government are doing. Can they make them change? Kana Inata - May 17, 2021 Yes, citizens can hold even unelected leaders accountable
Why do some Muslim-majority countries support China’s crackdown on Muslims? Jonathan Hoffman - May 3, 2021 Western countries have condemned the repression in Xinjiang, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt praised China’s efforts to restore ‘safety and security’
Five things to watch as the U.S. prepares to exit Afghanistan Asfandyar Mir - April 25, 2021 For Afghans, the conflict enters a new phase
Iran’s nuclear program won’t be stopped by the recent explosion. But the attack puts pressure on negotiators. Nicholas Miller - April 19, 2021 History suggests that diplomacy is more effective than sabotage.
Will the attack on Iran’s nuclear research facility derail U.S. nuclear talks? Dalia Dassa Kaye - April 13, 2021 The Biden administration will find it difficult to contain Israel and Iran’s escalating tensions.
China and Russia announced a joint pledge to push back against dollar hegemony Carla Norrlof - April 8, 2021 Controlling the world’s reserve currency gives the U.S. government a powerful lever to police geopolitical behavior
Germany has banned political parties in the past. Can it credibly condemn Turkey for doing the same? Mika Hackner - April 7, 2021 Trying to protect democracy from anti-democratic parties can give anti-democratic governments cover if they use the same tactics
Jordan detained a prince. The government’s determined to squash political dissent. Jillian Schwedler - April 5, 2021 Criticizing the king is considered an act of terrorism
China and Iran announced a new economic and security partnership. That’s not as alarming as it sounds. Lucille Greer and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj - March 31, 2021 China has similar deals with a number of Middle Eastern countries
North Korea conducted more missile tests. What happens next? Patricia M. Kim - March 27, 2021 The Biden administration faces three big challenges on the Korean Peninsula
Reviving the Iran nuclear deal requires tackling these three issues Henry Rome and Eric Brewer - March 18, 2021 But winding back Iran’s nuclear program and Trump-era sanctions won’t be easy
If you want to know what Americans think about bombing Iran, find out what they think about race Vladimir Enrique Medenica and David Ebner - March 10, 2021 That matters — because when political leaders shape foreign policy, they keep public opinion in mind.
Saudi Twitter blew up with support for the crown prince. How much of it is genuine? Andrew Leber and Alexei Abrahams - March 8, 2021 Tweets in support of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman racked up after a U.S. report implicated him in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi
Biden may be getting rid of the Authorizations for the Use of Military Force. That deserves a ‘Whoa.’ Andrew Rudalevige - March 6, 2021 The possibility of addressing the legal framework for the war on terror is big news.
Here’s how experts on the Middle East see the region’s key issues, our new survey finds Shibley Telhami and Marc Lynch - February 16, 2021 We asked about their views on the Israel-Palestine conflict, Iran’s nuclear program and more
Trump changed how the U.S. assigns the label ‘terrorist.’ Can the Biden administration change it back? Samuel M. Hickey and Manuel Reinert - February 11, 2021 Trump changed ‘designation’ from a foreign policy tool to one aimed at influencing American public opinion
Biden announced a major policy shift on Yemen. What happens now? Alexandra Stark - February 7, 2021 U.S. diplomacy, not U.S. military support, will shorten the war in Yemen
The U.S. and Russia kept a bilateral nuclear weapons deal alive. The harder part comes next. James J. Cameron - February 1, 2021 These five developments make arms control agreements even more complicated
Iran and Turkey have become drone powers James Rogers - January 27, 2021 Drones have become the weapon of choice around the world.
There was no legal way to stop Trump from ordering a nuclear strike if he wanted to, expert says Elizabeth N. Saunders - January 8, 2021 New revelations about Gen. Mark A. Milley’s calls to his Chinese counterpart remind of us of that fact
Saudi Arabia just lifted Qatar’s 43-month blockade. How did this rift end? Coates Ulrichsen - January 8, 2021 A new agreement appears to cover these three points
How the assassination of an Iranian scientist could affect nuclear negotiations with Iran Farzan Sabet - December 11, 2020 Fakhrizadeh’s death potentially complicates a path back to a nuclear deal and follow-up agreements.
In dozens of countries, governments rely on Internet shutdowns to hide repression Sophie Dyer, Likhita Banerji, and Anita R. Gohdes - December 3, 2020 Social media rhetoric from politicians, citizens and others helped influence political moves
Reviving the Iran nuclear deal will be harder than it looks Henry Rome - November 22, 2020 Politics in the region — and in the United States — have changed since 2015
What will America’s commitment to Afghanistan look like after the election? Asfandyar Mir - November 1, 2020 The peace negotiations are in flux, and the Taliban has ramped up the violence
How foreign influence efforts are targeting journalists Kelly McFarland and Alistair Somerville - October 29, 2020 Disinformation in 2020 has become even more complex.