Why Javier Milei won and why he’ll struggle to keep his promises Adrián Lucardi, Noam Lupu, and Jorge Mangonnet - November 24, 2023 There are big barriers to his sweeping agenda for Argentina.
Why Colombia’s ELN freed a soccer star’s parents Danielle Gilbert - November 15, 2023 Research on kidnappings by armed groups explains the impact on Colombia’s peace process.
Why authoritarian governments take hostages Danielle Gilbert - December 11, 2022 It’s not just a terrorist tactic any more.
Russia’s using ‘dark’ tankers to evade Western oil sanctions Jan Stockbruegger - December 7, 2022 Sanctions-busting creates a higher risk of accidents and oil spills, if vessels operate outside global regulations
Brazil’s presidential runoff is between two populists Zoila Ponce de León and Gabriele Magni - October 24, 2022 Bolsonaro and Lula supporters alike show a preference for anti-traditional politics and strong leadership, a new survey shows
The West wants to cut off Russia’s oil revenues. Who will that hurt? Jan Stockbruegger - October 20, 2022 The United States and its allies plan to embargo Russian crude oil shipments — and impose a price cap on Russian oil. That might backfire.
If OPEC is a cartel, it’s not a very good one Henry Farrell - October 10, 2022 This book tells you what you need to know about Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and global oil politics
In El Salvador and elsewhere, leaders find ways to break term limits Joseph Wright, Erica Frantz, and Andrea Kendall-Taylor - October 3, 2022 When leaders bend the rules to stay in power, it’s a red flag for democracy
Iran’s security forces have little incentive to ease up on protesters Roya Izadi - September 30, 2022 Will forces remain loyal to the regime? That might depend on their business networks.
Is Putin vulnerable? One autocracy in Russia may lead to another. Kathryn Stoner - September 27, 2022 Here’s what we know about how autocratic regimes die.
Here’s what persuades Americans to support democracy over party Robb Willer and Jan Voelkel - September 12, 2022 Our new study tested 25 different approaches with both Republicans and Democrats. Here are three that made a difference.
Colombia’s new president aims to swing his country left. It won’t be easy. Sandra Botero, Laura Gamboa, and Juan Albarracín - June 29, 2022 Gustavo Petro will have to make alliances and deals with moderate parties, which may disappoint his supporters
Why Colombia can’t build the infrastructure it needs Alisha C. Holland - June 8, 2022 Presidential candidates are promising economic development, but the nation’s laws make that hard to fulfill
How do North and South Americans view the U.S.? Dinorah Azpuru - June 2, 2022 Leaders are gathering for the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles
Colombia’s elections in May could determine the fate of the peace deal Shauna Gillooly - April 28, 2022 Concerns about violence may push voters to the polls, this research shows
What rising oil prices tell us about the oil market’s geopolitics Inwook Kim - April 11, 2022 It’s not all about the war in Ukraine
There are two ways to kick Russia out of the world trade system. One is more likely to work. Timothy Meyer and Todd N. Tucker - March 11, 2022 Would WTO members change the rules?
The West has hit Russia with tough sanctions. They could be tougher still. Daniel McDowell - March 2, 2022 If Putin escalates the war in Ukraine, here’s what could be next
Worried about the state of democracy? Here are some reasons to be optimistic instead. Miguel Angel Lara Otaola - March 2, 2022 These factors help countries return to democracy after an authoritarian spell, our research finds
If Russia invades Ukraine, what happens next? David Lake - January 22, 2022 Many Ukrainians wouldn’t favor a pro-Russian leader — but would the U.S. support an anti-Russian insurgency?
Honduras voted for change. Can Xiomara Castro, the president-elect, deliver? Will Freeman and Paul J. Angelo - December 1, 2021 She’ll be facing deeply embedded corruption, extreme poverty and unfriendly institutions, among other challenges
If Biden wants to work with Mexico on migration and asylum, he might start talking to Mexican NGOs Zaid Hydari, Kelsey Norman, Kevin Cole, and Ana Martín Gil - August 16, 2021 The administration wants to encourage asylum seekers to stay in Mexico rather than continue traveling north
Zambia has an election this week. Here’s what you need to know. Danielle Resnick - August 10, 2021 Voters aren’t happy about the country’s economic outlook or its external debt problem
Will Haitians get the chance to determine their future — without foreign interference? Robert Fatton - July 22, 2021 The current crisis could push Haitians to seek a more democratic society.
A Florida security company is entangled in the assassination of Haiti’s president. How is that possible? Deborah Avant - July 19, 2021 An increasing number of clients and providers in the private security market are dodging the rules
Across Latin America, citizens and governments are clashing over their countries’ authoritarian pasts Michael Albertus - July 8, 2021 Here’s what that looks like on the ground
Chile elected delegates to draft a new constitution — and it’s not tilted toward the elites Julieta Suarez-Cao and Javier Sajuria - June 24, 2021 Chilean political parties suffered a big blow: 40 percent of the votes went to independent candidates. Here’s what that means.
3 things to know about Nigeria’s Twitter ban Shelby Grossman, Lindsay Hundley, and Hakeem Bishi - June 14, 2021 Governments around the world are using social media’s language on content moderation to crack down on these platforms
Why Peru’s next leader was elected by a less than 1 percent margin Will Freeman and Cynthia McClintock - June 9, 2021 For Pedro Castillo and the left-wing Peru Libre party, the challenges ahead are enormous
Peru’s upcoming presidential election is really a referendum on its troubled constitution Paolo Sosa-Villagarcia and Maxwell A. Cameron - May 13, 2021 What’s at stake in the runoff between leftist front-runner Pedro Castillo and right-wing, dynastic candidate Keiko Fujimori?
Benin continues to slide toward autocracy Tyson Roberts - May 6, 2021 The government effectively banned opposition candidates, assuring an election win for President Patrice Talon last month.
Colombia is letting hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans stay. What can other countries learn? Katherine Palacio, Jose J. Padilla, and Erika Frydenlund - March 10, 2021 This new model might challenge assumptions about ‘safe and orderly migration’
Biden is pursuing a pathway to citizenship. He will face two key challenges. Romelia M. Solano - January 29, 2021 One challenge: inclusion of immigrants who don’t fit prevailing norms of deservingness.
Biden reverses Trump’s ‘Muslim ban.’ Americans support the decision. Nazita Lajevardi, Loren Collingwood, and Kassra AR Oskooii - January 26, 2021 In 2017, rallies and protests persuaded a big proportion of citizens that the ban was ‘un-American'
Biden promises to embrace multilateralism again. World leaders agree. Erik Voeten and Alexander Kentikelenis - December 15, 2020 Our research suggests the liberal order has staying power
In dozens of countries, governments rely on Internet shutdowns to hide repression Sophie Dyer, Likhita Banerji, and Anita R. Gohdes - December 3, 2020 Social media rhetoric from politicians, citizens and others helped influence political moves
Presidents who threaten election violence lose votes Stephanie Burchard - November 2, 2020 What can research on Africa tell us about the U.S.?
How will Florida’s Cuban Americans vote? That’s more complicated than many believe. Yamil Ricardo Velez - October 18, 2020 Let’s debunk the myths.
Are influence campaigns trolling your social media feeds? Meysam Alizadeh, Joshua Tucker, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Cody Buntain - October 12, 2020 New research shows how citizens can know in real time.
The longer-term coronavirus fallout could erode democracy. Here’s how that could play out. Cristina Bodea and Christian Houle - August 4, 2020 Rising economic inequality can damp support for democracy
What’s Vladimir Putin’s end game? Other post-Soviet autocrats give a few clues. Timothy Frye - July 2, 2020 Here’s why he will try to stay in power.
How will China respond when low-income countries can’t pay their debts? Scott Wingo - June 30, 2020 Expect to see some leeway — but probably not forgiveness
Four ways Donald Trump is already manipulating the U.S. elections Spencer Piston and Nic Cheeseman - June 15, 2020 Biden said Trump will try to steal the election. That’s already underway.
5 ways the coronavirus is making the world’s most vulnerable a lot more vulnerable Chen Reis - May 18, 2020 More people will need help — but wealthier nations may have less to give
Two years after Nicaragua’s mass uprising started, why is Daniel Ortega still in power? Mateo Jarquín and Kai M. Thaler - April 30, 2020 These three things explain why a mass nonviolent uprising didn’t manage to oust the authoritarian ruler.
The pandemic challenges democracies — but really hurts dictators Michael Albertus - April 30, 2020 Here’s how the economic fallout may fray domestic political alliances
The price of oil was actually negative last week. What happens next? Stephen Paduano - April 28, 2020 Cheap oil is causing pain from Texas to Nigeria.
In Latin America, coronavirus threatens not just public health, but also democracy Nicolás Saldías - April 16, 2020 Shaky economies are likely to get worse
This year’s low oil prices will hurt these countries the most Jeff D. Colgan and Emily Meierding - April 6, 2020 We looked at these 3 factors.
Saudi Arabia is launching an oil price war. That’s risky. Jim Krane - March 22, 2020 Without oil revenues, the monarchy could be in trouble
El Salvador’s president sent troops to occupy the legislature. Here’s what’s going on. Michael Paarlberg - February 17, 2020 Nayib Bukele is popular with the people, but not with lawmakers.
Putin would recognize Trump’s ‘reality TV’ techniques in the State of the Union address Hannah Chapman - February 11, 2020 That kind of showmanship really does boost public opinion ratings
Has Trump’s approval rating really shot up to 49 percent? Probably not. Jacob Long - February 6, 2020 More Republicans — and fewer Democrats — are responding to pollsters. That could skew the results.
How the U.S.-Iran conflict could help China and Russia David Edelstein - January 13, 2020 Will preoccupation with Iran shift U.S. attention away from other urgent concerns?
Latin American democracy may be in trouble. The protests are a symptom of increasing mistrust. Dinorah Azpuru - December 8, 2019 Citizens are unhappy both with their own representatives and with democracy in general.
The U.N. passed a Russia-backed cybercrime resolution. That’s not good news for Internet freedom. Mark Raymond and Justin Sherman - December 3, 2019 Moscow is becoming far more skilled in advancing its agenda at the United Nations.
Would Republican senators ever vote to convict Trump? Here’s what we can learn from the rest of the world. David Samuels - November 26, 2019 Sure, parties dump their prime ministers — but they rarely throw out ‘their’ presidents. Here’s why.
Uruguay’s Sunday runoff election may bring down the ruling party Jennifer Pribble and Fernando Rosenblatt - November 19, 2019 Voters have generally been content — so why are they pushing for change?
Is Bolivia’s democracy in danger? Here’s what’s behind the disputed presidential election. Santiago Anria and Jennifer Cyr - October 30, 2019 Yes, Evo Morales is ignoring some constitutional limits. But he has also brought previously excluded groups into power.
It’s not easy to spot disinformation on Twitter. Here’s what we learned from 8 political ‘astroturfing’ campaigns. Sebastian Stier, JungHwan Yang, Franziska Keller, and David Schoch - October 27, 2019 Hint: Don’t look for an account that tweets like a bot.
No, Trump probably won’t start a war to distract from his difficulties. Here’s what he’ll do instead. Valerie Morkevičius and Danielle Lupton - October 16, 2019 Expect an even more chaotic foreign policy
No, the Trump impeachment inquiry is not a coup Joseph Wright, John Chin, and David Carter - October 15, 2019 There were four coups attempted in 2019. Trump supported one of them.
Trump’s travel ban really was a Muslim ban, data suggests Vahid Niayesh - September 25, 2019 What the Trump administration’s data can and can’t tell us about the true effect of the travel ban
World leaders are gathering at the U.N. Yes, U.S. sanctions can make this complicated. David Bosco - September 19, 2019 Travel restrictions are a popular way to punish foreign leaders.
Here’s why Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is still in power Charles Larratt-Smith - August 13, 2019 More sanctions aren’t likely to topple him
Humanitarian aid in Syria is being politicized — and too many civilians in need aren’t getting it Jesse Marks - August 5, 2019 When the government controls the aid, it gets used for political gain.
Colombia’s historic peace agreement with the FARC is fraying. We talked to 1,700 Colombians to understand why. Michael Weintraub, Marianne Dahl, Helga Malmin Binningsbø, Håvard Nygård, and Abbey Steele - August 5, 2019 Can the peace agreement hold?
D-Day would be nearly impossible to pull off today. Here’s why. Danielle Lupton - June 5, 2019 ‘Loose lips sink ships’ — but so can social media
Why the fragmentation of European politics could bode poorly for democracy Joseph Wright, Erica Frantz, and Andrea Kendall-Taylor - June 5, 2019 Reaching consensus in the new E.U. Parliament just got harder.
Here are 4 ways that Venezuela’s crisis could end Jennifer Cyr and Jessica Maves Braithwaite - May 23, 2019 The military will play a decisive role.
Why the Tunisian military ignored orders and sided with protesters Sharan Grewal - May 20, 2019 Interviews with retired senior officers point to two critical factors.
Trump changed U.S. policy toward Libya. This is why it matters. Mieczysław P. Boduszyński and Christopher K. Lamont - May 2, 2019 The Trump administration’s about-face on Libya leaves few options in the face of a dramatic escalation of violence.
Trump wants Venezuela’s military to remove its president. But Maduro has made that difficult. Erica De Bruin - May 2, 2019 Will Venezuela’s overlapping forces remain loyal?
What might be lost as China and the U.S. make it harder for scholars to travel back and forth? Xiaoyu Pu - May 1, 2019 Academics and researchers can help foreign policymakers better understand the implications of their decisions.
South Africa’s apartheid regime ended 25 years ago Evan Lieberman - April 26, 2019 Democracy has taken root with substantial success.
Sudan’s upheaval is the latest example of a ‘gray-zone coup’ Nandita Balakrishnan - April 17, 2019 Autocrats learned “coup-proofing” — and militaries learned negotiating.
How do you create a better asylum policy? We asked the asylum seekers. Margaret Peters - April 11, 2019 They want work, dignity, a chance to rebuild their lives and the possibility of a safe return home.
Here’s how democracy is eroding in Mongolia Boldsaikhan Sambuu and Aubrey Menard - April 2, 2019 Say goodbye to independent judges and corruption investigations.
The U.S. is thinking of invading Venezuela. That’s unlikely to lead to democracy. Gregory Weeks - March 25, 2019 U.S. armed intervention has been bad for Latin America.
Democracy matters for health care. Here’s how we measured this. Tom Bollyky, Tara Templin, and Simon Wigley - March 21, 2019 The effects are greatest for chronic diseases.
Trump declared a controversial state of emergency. That can erode democracy. Bryan Rooney and Anna Lührmann - March 10, 2019 Countries with states of emergency are 60 percent more likely to see democracy erode.
At Venezuela’s border with Colombia, women suffer extraordinary levels of violence Julia Zulver - February 26, 2019 Most international media outlets focus on the humanitarian aid blockade — and miss the rampant violence against women.
China and Russia have deep financial ties to Venezuela. Here’s what’s at stake. Stephen B. Kaplan and Michael Penfold - February 21, 2019 A month ago, Venezuelan National Assembly President Juan Guaidó refused
The U.S. has quietly supported the Venezuelan opposition for years Timothy Gill - February 19, 2019 While Venezuela’s political crisis has sunk below most Americans’ news
Guaidó backed an amnesty plan for Venezuela’s military. How might that play out? Mieczysław Boduszyński and Victor Peskin - February 11, 2019 Three weeks into Venezuela’s political standoff, will there be a
Why did China stand by Maduro in Venezuela? Matt Ferchen - February 5, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83445" align="aligncenter" width="960"] An anti-government protester wears Venezuelan flag
Will Venezuela’s military back — or abandon — Maduro? Here are the 4 things it will consider. Eva Bellin and David Pion-Berlin - February 1, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83327" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Security forces guard the entrance of
Four reasons it’ll be hard to offer Maduro a golden parachute (and one reason to try anyway) Zacc Ritter, Daniel Krcmaric, Ariya Hagh, and Andrew Bennett - January 26, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83142" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A Venezuelan opposition supporter holds a
What political science tells us about electoral fraud and protest Joshua Tucker - January 25, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83130" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (FILE) - A wounded protester as
Here are the 3 big shifts in Venezuela that you probably missed — and will change what comes next. Jana Morgan - January 25, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83074" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Protesters demanding Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's
Trump’s challenge to Venezuela’s president could lead to a military occupation. Here’s why — and why that’s dangerous. Benjamin Denison - January 24, 2019 President Trump recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the legitimate
Democracy is under threat in Hungary, Venezuela and Turkey. Could the U.S. be next? Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman - December 6, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81053" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump talks with reporters on
Here’s what Erick Erickson gets wrong about dictators and migration Kathryn Sikkink - December 5, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81107" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Undocumented Venezuelans are held in a
When Trump stretches democratic norms, do voters care? Milan Svolik and Matthew Graham - November 20, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80461" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump responded to CNN journalist
How Guatemala achieved what was once thought impossible: major reductions in homicides. Renard Sexton - November 13, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80147" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Migrants from Central American countries head
How Venezuela’s economic crisis is undermining social science research — about everything Tyler Burleigh, Scott Clifford, Ryan Jewell, Ryan Kennedy, and Philip Waggoner - November 7, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79925" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News)[/caption] For social scientists,
In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro’s victory may mean further shifts in tolerance and moderation Matthew Layton and Amy Erica Smith - November 2, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79722" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A supporter waves a flag with
Democracy is in crisis in Latin America. Brazil may be the next trouble spot. Scott Mainwaring and Luis Schenoni - October 22, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79199" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A man yells after listening to
Politicians blame refugees for violence. But refugees are more likely to be its victims. Tobias Böhmelt, Vincenzo Bove, and Skrede Gleditsch - September 19, 2018 [caption id="attachment_77948" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Newly displaced Syrian children arrive at
Brazil’s most popular politician, Lula, won’t be on the October presidential ballot. Here’s what comes next. Brett Kyle and Andrew Reiter - September 5, 2018 [caption id="attachment_77375" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters of former Brazilian president Luiz