Pakistan goes to the polls this week. Here’s what to watch. Christopher Clary, Sarah Khan, Zoha Waseem, Yasser Kureshi, and Asfandyar Mir - February 7, 2024 Four experts on Pakistani politics share their insights on the leading parties and candidates, voter turnout, and election integrity.
Violent deaths in Pakistan jumped last year. That’s a big worry. Christopher Clary - January 5, 2024 Outside powers may be unable to ignore the worsening turmoil in Pakistan.
Five things that didn’t happen in the world in 2023 Elizabeth N. Saunders - December 22, 2023 We missed some breakthroughs, but we dodged some disasters.
A closer look at the Gaza casualty data Marc Lynch and Sarah Parkinson - December 14, 2023 Casualty counts can be a political tool – and how we report the data has real consequences.
What political scientists know about occupation, applied to Gaza Elizabeth N. Saunders, Diana Greenwald, Dana El Kurd, David Edelstein, and Alexander Downes - October 24, 2023 Experts on the politics of foreign occupations tackle big questions in this week’s Good Chat.
How should we think about a mass exodus of Palestinians from Gaza? Elizabeth N. Saunders and Kelly M. Greenhill - October 20, 2023 Governments and non-state actors use mass migration as a tool of war.
The ICC is investigating violence in Israel and Palestine Kelebogile Zvobgo - October 18, 2023 Israel doesn’t recognize the court’s jurisdiction – but it should.
Biden will visit Israel during a war. That’s unprecedented. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 17, 2023 The humanitarian crisis and escalation fears heighten uncertainty.
Why the Gaza hostage crisis is different Danielle Gilbert - October 13, 2023 What we know about Hamas hostage-taking and Israel’s hostage recovery policy.
What the arrest warrant for Putin really means Kelebogile Zvobgo - October 3, 2023 He may never stand trial, but that’s not all that matters.
Will foreign policy actually matter in the 2024 U.S. election? Elizabeth N. Saunders - September 21, 2023 It may not matter much to voters, but foreign policy is definitely on the ballot.
Did the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan harm U.S. credibility? Christopher Clary - September 20, 2023 Here’s the latest research.
Why authoritarian governments take hostages Danielle Gilbert - December 11, 2022 It’s not just a terrorist tactic any more.
80 countries just signed a declaration on protecting civilians in war Naomi Egel - November 28, 2022 If it’s not a binding treaty, how can it influence military action? Here’s what research tells us.
Why are Germans losing enthusiasm for helping Ukraine? Yehonatan Abramson, Pauline Jones, Dean Dulay, and Anil Menon - November 23, 2022 It’s not just about energy costs, our research finds. Germans have a deep cultural aversion toward military intervention.
What’s in Biden’s National Security Strategy? Stacie Goddard - October 13, 2022 The NSS conveys the president’s vision – and the country’s ‘grand strategy.’
Today is International Day of Peace. Can you measure what peace is? Roger Mac Ginty and Pamina Firchow - September 21, 2022 One way is to see whether people feel safe going about their daily lives, the Everyday Peace Indicators project finds
Gorbachev didn’t set out to open the door to democracy Daniel Treisman - September 1, 2022 The former Soviet leader learned the hard way that reining in political changes is harder than making them
Do armed drones reduce terrorism? Here’s the data. Matthew Fuhrmann and Joshua Schwartz - August 18, 2022 This research analyzes patterns of terrorism in the 18 countries that utilize drones
Afghanistan’s women in exile continue to push for equality Mona Tajali - August 18, 2022 Activists and former politicians put pressure on the international community regarding concerns over key women’s rights
The U.S. killed al-Qaeda’s leader. That might boost terrorism. Jenna Jordan - August 9, 2022 ‘Leadership decapitation’ can inspire Islamist extremist groups and followers to carry out more attacks, my research finds
Thousands of nontraditional fighters have joined the Ukraine war Katherine Kramer and Andrew Bell - July 26, 2022 That puts civilians at risk, research shows
How many Ukrainian refugees have been trafficked? We won’t know for years. Laura A. Dean - July 21, 2022 Their fates will depend in part on which country they’ve landed in – and whether that country has comprehensive policies and services
Biden’s low poll numbers are exactly what we should expect Robert Griffin and John Sides / Managing Editor - July 11, 2022 We’re back to a world in which a weak economy hurts presidential approval.
Americans see Afghan and Ukrainian refugees very differently. Why? Scott Williamson, Melina Platas, Lauren Prather, Claire Adida, and Adeline Lo - April 28, 2022 But research suggests some approaches can help communities successfully absorb all kinds of refugees
NATO was founded to protect ‘civilized’ people. That means White. Amoz JY Hor - April 10, 2022 Four historical examples show how much race has always mattered in defining ‘Western civilization’
Imran Khan dissolved Pakistan’s parliament. How did that happen? Yasser Kureshi and Asfandyar Mir - April 5, 2022 Pakistan’s Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of the prime minister’s moves
Why democracies win more wars than autocracies Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam - March 30, 2022 Like Putin, dictators tend to start risky wars, our research shows
Ukraine updated its defense institutions — and is defying expectations Louis-Alexandre Berg and Andrew Radin - March 29, 2022 Procurement changes addressed corruption and boosted Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Putin is discovering that overwhelming military power can be a curse Todd Sechser - March 29, 2022 As Stalin learned in Finland, small countries can inflict serious damage on invading superpowers
Muslim women in hijab get the brunt of discrimination. I asked them what that’s like. Nura Sediqe - March 27, 2022 In the past few years, in schools across the country, girls wearing hijab have been targeted by fellow classmates and teachers
European countries are welcoming Ukrainian refugees. It was a different story in 2015. Lamis Abdelaaty - March 23, 2022 It’s not merely a shared ‘Europeanness,’ this research finds
Calling Ukrainian refugees more ‘civilized’ than Syrians requires willful amnesia Oumar Ba, Lina Benabdallah, and Elif Kalaycioglu - March 21, 2022 The history of the West suggests something else entirely
More than 2 million people have already fled the Ukraine conflict. How will they fare in new countries? Peter Esaiasson, Nazita Lajevardi, and Jacob Sohlberg - March 9, 2022 If European nations want to welcome these refugees, here’s what they can learn from our research
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t rely on cyberwarfare. Here’s why. Shawn W. Lonergan, Erica D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen - March 7, 2022 Cyber operations don’t win wars, our research finds.
NATO can’t send troops to Ukraine. Here is what it will probably do instead. Sara Moller - February 28, 2022 The security and defense of alliance members that border Russia and Ukraine will be a top priority.
Biden hopes sanctions will deter Putin. It may not be so easy. Bruce W. Jentleson - February 18, 2022 Steep economic costs may not significantly change Russia’s behavior
Does Putin really want regime change in Ukraine? Alexander Downes - February 9, 2022 The research suggests this rarely works. But countries keep trying anyway.
If Russia invades Ukraine, what happens next? David Lake - January 22, 2022 Many Ukrainians wouldn’t favor a pro-Russian leader — but would the U.S. support an anti-Russian insurgency?
Biden promises to fight transnational corruption. But will the U.S. target friends as well as foes? Victor Peskin and Mieczysław Boduszyński - December 20, 2021 Washington tends to avoid confronting allies, this research shows
Colin Powell was a paradoxical man in a polarized time Clarence Lusane - November 2, 2021 He joined the Republican Party just as it was veering away from him.
Biden has resettled the fewest refugees in the history of the U.S. program. What could change that? Reva Dhingra, Olivia Woldemikael, and Mitchell Kilborn - November 2, 2021 Refugees bring communities a net financial gain, research finds
Hunger is getting worse, not better, around the globe. The pandemic didn’t help. Kit Evans and Kelly McFarland - September 22, 2021 Production and distribution systems haven’t kept pace with new threats, a new report finds.
Why the Pentagon can’t fully account for all its assets — in Afghanistan or anywhere else Christian I. Bale - September 22, 2021 Incomplete audits make wasteful spending more likely
What happens now to U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan? Sarah Kreps and Paul Lushenko - September 21, 2021 The lack of accountability for civilian casualties in drone strikes isn’t likely to change
What’s the big ruckus over the new defense partnership with the U.K. and Australia? Sophie Meunier - September 17, 2021 France isn’t happy about being sidelined by the new U.S. alliance for Indo-Pacific security.
How did 9/11 change South Asian Americans’ identities and politics? Sangay Mishra - September 17, 2021 Being targets of racial and religious hatred unified them behind the Democrats
Gen. Milley reportedly tried to work around Trump on nukes. Did he have authority to do this? Carrie Lee - September 15, 2021 No. And here’s why.
What 9/11 taught us about the president, Congress and who makes war and peace Douglas Kriner - September 11, 2021 It’s more complicated than it appears.
Fear of ‘terrorism’ shaped U.S. foreign policy after 9/11. Will the U.S. make China the next big obsession? Ronald Krebs - September 11, 2021 An overarching narrative can lead to fewer foreign policy choices.
20 years later, America’s ‘War on Terror’ language has gone global Somdeep Sen and John Collins - September 9, 2021 Right-wing governments and movements often use these words to justify authoritarian and racist policies.
20 years after 9/11, the U.S. is again in a great power confrontation James Goldgeier - September 9, 2021 The end of the Cold War scrambled U.S. foreign policy — and then 9/11 scrambled it again. Here’s what remains the same.
Did the Afghanistan exit diminish U.S. credibility among its allies? Probably not. Ronald Krebs and Jennifer Spindel - August 31, 2021 Prolonged wars make allies nervous, our research on Vietnam shows.
The U.S. couldn’t build Afghanistan a democracy. That rarely works. Jacqueline L. Hazelton - August 31, 2021 Regimes battling a counterinsurgency often depend on corruption to stay in power
Afghanistan’s security forces unraveled this month. What broke their seven-year stalemate with the Taliban? Yuri M. Zhukov and Stephen Biddle - August 31, 2021 The dynamics behind this kind of collapse are more common than you might think
Taliban leaders are back in charge in Afghanistan. Can they control their own army? Jean Lachapelle, Dan Slater, and Adam E. Casey - August 26, 2021 What we know from other victorious rebellions
How resettling Afghan refugees might help Afghanistan’s future Margaret Peters and David Leblang - August 25, 2021 Migrants help their home countries by building trade ties and by sending back both cash and political knowledge.
Groups like the Taliban have seized power elsewhere. Will the Taliban face similar difficulties governing? Raphael Lefevre - August 24, 2021 The research shows how hard it is to go from armed rebellion to leadership
Baroness, ‘Collapse’: The Week In One Song Christopher Federico - August 20, 2021 Afghanistan’s government collapses.
This book explains when peacekeeping works — and when it doesn’t Naazneen H. Barma - August 19, 2021 To give peace a chance, start with the grass roots, not the treetops.
Haiti needs international help — even though past help has often made things worse Henry (Chip) Carey - August 17, 2021 A presidential assassination, an earthquake and a tropical storm are beyond what the country can handle on its own
5 ways the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan will hurt Pakistan Fahd Humayun - August 16, 2021 Pakistan’s relationship with its own religious groups — and with Washington — just got more complicated
The U.S. government hasn’t protected noncitizen veterans from deportation. That may change. Elizabeth M.F. Grasmeder - August 12, 2021 The U.S. military has a long history of relying on foreign recruits.
What are the Taliban’s next moves? Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, and Austin L. Wright - August 9, 2021 Here’s the research on earlier withdrawals from Afghanistan.
The Taliban has seized more cities, despite U.S. efforts to build a strong Afghan military. What happened? Rachel Tecott - August 8, 2021 Persuading partners to emulate the U.S. military approach doesn’t necessarily work, new research finds
Can the U.S. and India depend on each other? Christopher Clary - August 1, 2021 Here are the takeaways from the July 2021 bilateral meetings.
Northern Afghanistan once kept out the Taliban. Why has it fallen so quickly this time? Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili - July 27, 2021 Political and ethnic tensions have fueled new discord — and the Taliban has capitalized on these grievances
Olympic officials resisted pressure to ban Iran from the Tokyo Games, but they’ve banned teams before Thandiwe Keet, Andrew Bertoli, and Aleksandra Smajevic - July 27, 2021 In these 9 cases, sporting authorities tried to ban a country from international competition — sometimes for years
The pandemic has reshaped conflicts around the world. Here’s what got worse. Ryan Sheely, Mayesha Alam, and Adam Lichtenheld - July 20, 2021 New research identifies specific areas of concern, as covid-19 aggravates the effect of conflicts
A Florida security company is entangled in the assassination of Haiti’s president. How is that possible? Deborah Avant - July 19, 2021 An increasing number of clients and providers in the private security market are dodging the rules
The Taliban isn’t the only challenge for the Afghanistan government Dipali Mukhopadhyay - July 7, 2021 The U.S. withdrawal leaves these big questions for the Ghani administration
NATO is about to launch a formal strategic review. Here’s what that means. Garret Martin and Balazs Martonffy - June 13, 2021 This week’s summit is about more than photo-ops and discussions of repairing the alliance.
The U.S. is pulling out of Afghanistan. Don’t expect an al-Qaeda reboot. Daniel Byman - April 30, 2021 Here’s why the country won’t necessarily become a base for international terrorist attacks
Bill Clinton said he was ending big government. Biden wants to bring it back. Andrew Rudalevige - April 29, 2021 Five takeaways from Biden’s speech on his first 99 (or 98?) days in office.
Five things to watch as the U.S. prepares to exit Afghanistan Asfandyar Mir - April 25, 2021 For Afghans, the conflict enters a new phase
Killing Joke, ‘Exit’: The Week In One Song Christopher Federico - April 16, 2021 An exit from Afghanistan.
Americans are divided over boycotting the 2022 Beijing Olympics. Here’s the data. Craig Kafura - April 11, 2021 Many Americans later regretted the decision not to participate in the 1980 Moscow Summer Olympics
Biden reversed Trump’s sanctions on International Criminal Court officials. What happens now? Kyle Rapp and Kelebogile Zvobgo - April 4, 2021 Past U.S. administrations supported the court’s work — when it aligned with U.S. interests
Afghans want peace. New data show they’re open to a surprising number of options. Renard Sexton and Christoph Zurcher - March 29, 2021 Our survey found Taliban power-sharing was not a dealbreaker.
Negotiating peace the same old way doesn’t work. Here’s what does. Séverine Autesserre - March 21, 2021 Over 20 years of research, these three things emerged as key to building a lasting peace
The Biden administration is planning for climate migration. Do Americans support helping climate migrants? Sabrina B. Arias and Christopher W. Blair - March 4, 2021 Here’s what our research finds
The International Criminal Court just elected a new chief prosecutor. Here’s what you need to know. Nastaran Far, Hailey Robertson, and Kelebogile Zvobgo - February 16, 2021 The ICC’s future will rest on the new prosecutor’s success in opening, trying and closing cases — and being fair
Trump changed how the U.S. assigns the label ‘terrorist.’ Can the Biden administration change it back? Samuel M. Hickey and Manuel Reinert - February 11, 2021 Trump changed ‘designation’ from a foreign policy tool to one aimed at influencing American public opinion
The ICC says it can investigate Israel’s alleged war crimes in the Palestinian territories. Netanyahu and Biden object. M.P. Broache and Kelebogile Zvobgo - February 10, 2021 Israel and the U.S. don’t think the International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over nonmember states. Here’s when it does.
The U.S. and Russia kept a bilateral nuclear weapons deal alive. The harder part comes next. James J. Cameron - February 1, 2021 These five developments make arms control agreements even more complicated
Why the Taliban agreed to let more girls in Afghanistan go to school Jori Breslawski - January 5, 2021 Afghan girls outside a temporary shelter in Kabul last month.
Australia discovered that its special forces committed war crimes in Afghanistan Thomas Gift, Charles Miller, and Andrew M. Bell - November 30, 2020 Here’s the research on how militaries can reduce violence against civilians
Why Ethiopia’s conflict could spill beyond its borders David Kampf - November 30, 2020 Civil wars rarely remain purely domestic affairs
A covid-19 vaccine might be tough to distribute in countries at war Jori Breslawski - November 12, 2020 Misinformation is just one of the challenges
What will America’s commitment to Afghanistan look like after the election? Asfandyar Mir - November 1, 2020 The peace negotiations are in flux, and the Taliban has ramped up the violence
The Trump campaign claims it wants a foreign policy debate. That’s not what we’re likely to get. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 21, 2020 But foreign policy will definitely be on the ballot on Nov. 3
How a possible Biden victory is shaping international politics, even before Nov. 3 Scott Wolford and Cathy X. Wu - October 21, 2020 Americans aren’t the only ones watching the 2020 presidential election closely
How Congress is pushing back against Trump’s unprecedented use of emergency powers Elizabeth Goitein - September 24, 2020 Unless the laws change, future presidents are more likely to exploit emergency powers, now that Trump has ended the tradition of restraint.
Why Trump’s alleged comments about soldiers brought so much outrage Lauren Prather and Danielle Gilbert - September 11, 2020 This study examines who Americans think deserves government support.
What can stop sexual harassment in the U.S. military? Stephanie Bonnes - July 13, 2020 Here’s what my research suggests.
At the heart of Trump’s Taliban bounty crisis are questions about the President’s Daily Brief Michael Poznansky - July 2, 2020 Presidential decision making relies on good intel
Why didn’t the U.S. rebuke Russia for its Taliban bounty deal? Four things to know. Asfandyar Mir - July 1, 2020 The Trump administration’s response seems unusual, on a number of levels
Colin Kaepernick is back in the news. Here’s how black athletes can inspire activism. Robert A. Bennett III, Nyron N. Crawford, and Christopher C. Towler - June 25, 2020 Our research found a measurable effect.
Despite U.S. sanctions, the International Criminal Court will keep investigating alleged war crimes in Afghanistan Stephen Chaudoin and Kelebogile Zvobgo - June 16, 2020 The U.S. public may not agree with Trump’s move
The U.N. has appealed for a global coronavirus cease-fire Govinda Clayton - April 12, 2020 But is it possible to quarantine conflict?