How much trouble is Joe Biden really in? John Sides and Michael Tesler - March 19, 2024 There’s precedent for an election-year boost – but it’s not guaranteed.
Trump had the nomination sewn up before a single vote was cast John Sides - March 7, 2024 Two graphs show his dominance in the “invisible primary.”
Can the U.S. pressure Israel to end the war? Jeremy Pressman - February 12, 2024 The U.S. government has a long history of trying to restrain Israel, with mixed success.
Five things that didn’t happen in the world in 2023 Elizabeth N. Saunders - December 22, 2023 We missed some breakthroughs, but we dodged some disasters.
Biden will visit Israel during a war. That’s unprecedented. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 17, 2023 The humanitarian crisis and escalation fears heighten uncertainty.
In Memoriam: Bruce Russett Elizabeth N. Saunders, Harvey Starr, Daniela Donno, Paul Huth, and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell - October 1, 2023 Russett helped the world understand the democratic peace.
The Supreme Court may end college affirmative action. Then what? Lauren S. Foley - October 27, 2022 Universities have followed similar bans to the letter but tried other ways to admit racially diverse classes – with mixed results
What’s in Biden’s National Security Strategy? Stacie Goddard - October 13, 2022 The NSS conveys the president’s vision – and the country’s ‘grand strategy.’
Presidents can’t declassify documents with Green Lantern superpowers Andrew Rudalevige and Kenneth Mayer - August 18, 2022 Let’s look at the many, many holes in Donald Trump’s theory of executive power.
How D.C. could decide the next presidential election Clarence Lusane - July 19, 2022 Washington’s lack of representation reveals several cracks in American democracy
Biden’s low poll numbers are exactly what we should expect Robert Griffin and John Sides / Managing Editor - July 11, 2022 We’re back to a world in which a weak economy hurts presidential approval.
Trans advocates work locally. Conservatives fight back nationally. Alison L. Gash - May 31, 2022 Support for LGBTQ rights is at an all-time high, but some state legislatures are on the attack
The Philippines elected a dictator’s son. Why are dynasties popular? James Loxton - May 26, 2022 Ties to a former dictatorship are quite common in new democracies, this research explains
What will Congress do on abortion post-Roe? Michele Swers - May 9, 2022 Here’s what Democrats and Republicans will probably do
Condemning Putin will make it harder to end the conflict with Russia Samuel Helfont - March 30, 2022 Consider how hard it was to lift sanctions after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait
Republican senators used racially coded language to question Ketanji Brown Jackson. There’s history to that. Sharon Wright Austin - March 28, 2022 Compare that to the language senators used to grill Constance Baker Motley in 1966, slowing down her confirmation as the first Black female federal judge.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans are united in confronting Russia. That unity won’t last. Jordan Tama - March 3, 2022 Americans generally oppose Russia and support freedom, no matter their party.
Biden said he won’t make an ‘ideological’ Supreme Court pick. Republicans do exactly that. Amanda Hollis-Brusky - February 14, 2022 Liberals want to counter the influence of the Federalist Society. The Democratic Party may be their biggest obstacle.
The Senate failed to restore this voting rights protection. My research shows it worked. Nicole E. Willcoxon - January 21, 2022 Since Shelby County v. Holder ended ‘preclearance’ protections, states have had more leeway to make voting more difficult
Many college Republicans didn’t vote for Trump in 2020. His racist rhetoric may be why. Zachary Hertz, Pia Deshpande, and Brian Schaffner - January 20, 2022 The ‘diploma divide’ appears to run through Republicans as well
Rep. Boebert labels Rep. Omar a jihadist. Why don’t GOP leaders condemn the slur? Maneesh Arora - December 6, 2021 Many Republican voters endorse anti-Muslim sentiments, my research finds
Most Americans support Biden’s expanded child tax credit, our research finds. But there are caveats. Mariely Lopez-Santana and Lucas Núñez - November 10, 2021 They are even keener on supporting disabled or elderly Americans. But support for child benefits may grow.
Colin Powell was a paradoxical man in a polarized time Clarence Lusane - November 2, 2021 He joined the Republican Party just as it was veering away from him.
Big government vastly expanded presidential power. Republicans use it to sabotage the administrative state. William Howell and Terry Moe - October 31, 2021 The White House in October. Editor’s note: This article is
The Biden administration still has a lot of vacant positions. It’s a growing problem. Anne Joseph O’Connell - October 26, 2021 Delays in confirming successful nominations have doubled since the Reagan era
Big-name Democrats are campaigning in Virginia’s race for governor. Does that help candidates? Karina Mondragon, Christopher Stout, and Cara Nixon - October 24, 2021 They won’t change minds. But Obama, Abrams and Bottoms are likely to help get more Black voters to cast ballots.
Japan’s new prime minister is a third-generation politician. That’s more common than you might think. Daniel M. Smith - October 5, 2021 Why dynasties dominate the leadership in Japan, and around the world.
U.S. foreign policy was once all about race. If the U.S. isn’t careful, race may come back. Richard W. Maass - September 22, 2021 A new U.S. partnership with the U.K. and Australia could fuel risky notions of civilizational conflict
What’s the big ruckus over the new defense partnership with the U.K. and Australia? Sophie Meunier - September 17, 2021 France isn’t happy about being sidelined by the new U.S. alliance for Indo-Pacific security.
How did 9/11 change South Asian Americans’ identities and politics? Sangay Mishra - September 17, 2021 Being targets of racial and religious hatred unified them behind the Democrats
What 9/11 taught us about the president, Congress and who makes war and peace Douglas Kriner - September 11, 2021 It’s more complicated than it appears.
Fear of ‘terrorism’ shaped U.S. foreign policy after 9/11. Will the U.S. make China the next big obsession? Ronald Krebs - September 11, 2021 An overarching narrative can lead to fewer foreign policy choices.
20 years later, America’s ‘War on Terror’ language has gone global Somdeep Sen and John Collins - September 9, 2021 Right-wing governments and movements often use these words to justify authoritarian and racist policies.
20 years after 9/11, the U.S. is again in a great power confrontation James Goldgeier - September 9, 2021 The end of the Cold War scrambled U.S. foreign policy — and then 9/11 scrambled it again. Here’s what remains the same.
New Yorkers used ranked-choice voting last month. Did it eliminate spoilers, as promised? Lindsey Cormack and Jack Santucci - July 26, 2021 And how does it work, exactly?
NATO is about to launch a formal strategic review. Here’s what that means. Garret Martin and Balazs Martonffy - June 13, 2021 This week’s summit is about more than photo-ops and discussions of repairing the alliance.
4 reasons the GOP wouldn’t vote for a Jan. 6 commission Sarah Binder - May 27, 2021 It wasn’t the first filibuster of the year, and it won’t be the last
Will Breyer retire while Democrats hold the White House and Senate? Here’s what political science tells us. Christine Nemacheck - April 21, 2021 Most federal judges retire for personal, rather than politically strategic, reasons. Supreme Court justices may be different.
Trump didn’t bring White working-class voters to the Republican Party. The data suggests he kept them away. Noam Lupu and Nicholas Carnes - April 14, 2021 White working-class voters had been moving to the Republican Party for years. Trump stopped the trend.
MLB moved the All-Star Game to protest Georgia’s new voting law. Here’s what that says about democracy. Thomas David Bunting - April 8, 2021 That will alert far more ordinary citizens to concerns about voter suppression
Biden reversed Trump’s sanctions on International Criminal Court officials. What happens now? Kyle Rapp and Kelebogile Zvobgo - April 4, 2021 Past U.S. administrations supported the court’s work — when it aligned with U.S. interests
The U.S. has spent billions trying to fix Mexico’s drug war. It’s not working. Edward Hunt - March 14, 2021 Here’s why critics want to reassess U.S. security assistance to fight drug-related violence
Biden may be getting rid of the Authorizations for the Use of Military Force. That deserves a ‘Whoa.’ Andrew Rudalevige - March 6, 2021 The possibility of addressing the legal framework for the war on terror is big news.
The Hyde Amendment blocks federal funding of abortion. Will House Democrats repeal it? Michele Swers and Kelly L. Rolfes-Haase / Managing Editor - February 22, 2021 Democrats and Republicans weren’t always divided on abortion funding. That has changed.
Why Trump’s border wall failed Michael Albertus - February 16, 2021 In the United States, private property owners have a great deal of power to block or delay major public works
When local police cooperate with ICE, Latino communities under-report crime. Here’s the data. Reva Dhingra, Olivia Woldemikael, and Mitchell Kilborn - February 4, 2021 Such policies hurt public health and safety for upward of one-fifth of the country.
Biden can’t instruct the new U.S. attorneys on how to prosecute the Capitol rioters. But they’ll listen to his signals. Michael J. Nelson, Ian Ostrander, Ethan D. Boldt, and Christina L. Boyd - January 31, 2021 That’s been true at least since the 1990s, our research finds
Biden just changed immigration policy. That doesn’t mean you should expect a new wave of immigration. Margaret E. Peters - January 21, 2021 Potential migrants consider many things when deciding whether to leave home. The Biden administration is targeting them with relevant information.
Democratic presidents have traditionally hurt their parties. Joe Biden may be different. Josh Vincent and Daniel Galvin - January 20, 2021 Will he invest in building up a strong Democratic Party?
Members of Congress want a commission to investigate the Capitol invasion. Here’s when these work. Jordan Tama / Managing Editor - January 19, 2021 Some commissions kick the can down the road. Some prompt real change.
Biden will have more women in his Cabinet than any president ever. Other countries still do better. Susan Franceschet and Karen Beckwith - January 15, 2021 Most cabinets have a “concrete floor” for gender representation, and rarely go lower. Will Biden raise that floor in the U.S.?
Big trends in American politics are making events like the U.S. Capitol violence more likely Jonathan Bendor and Jacob N. Shapiro - January 7, 2021 Two of the trends: weaker parties and stronger presidents.
How political leaders could persuade more Americans to get a covid-19 vaccination Matt Motta - December 21, 2020 Republicans’ and Democrats’ attitudes have divided by party — but they shift quickly.
Many Republicans believe the election was fixed. But that’s what losing partisans often think. Dan Cassino - December 3, 2020 What’s new is how many are not just suspicious, but say they’re sure it’s true
What happened to that ‘blue wave’? Sam Rosenfeld, Daniel Galvin, and Daniel Schlozman - November 10, 2020 Democratic Party moderates and progressives are blaming each other. Here’s what our research suggests.
One in four Latinos voted for Trump last time. They’ll likely do so again. David Leal and Álvaro J. Corral - November 1, 2020 The Latino groups that lean Republican are the segments that are growing
If a president becomes incapacitated, here’s what the Constitution says Andrew Rudalevige - October 3, 2020 The 25th Amendment answers at least some of the big questions.
China is getting tough with Taiwan. How will that affect U.S. policy? Steven M. Goldstein - October 1, 2020 The U.S. posture of “strategic ambiguity” has helped keep the peace for decades
Trump’s ‘Chinese virus’ slur makes some people blame Chinese Americans. But others blame Trump. Gregory Porumbescu and Donald Moynihan - September 16, 2020 Even conservatives responded to the phrase by more often criticizing the president
Public outrage derailed Trump’s plans to slow the mail. That’s what keeps presidents in check. Douglas Kriner and Dino Christenson - August 24, 2020 Public opinion more effectively reins in the presidency than the other branches. But that may be changing.
There’s a reason the NRA is a key ‘surrogate’ for the Republican Party Henry Farrell - August 7, 2020 The NRA stokes outrage that gives cover to unpopular economic policies
House Democrats are sending dead-on-arrival bills to the Senate. There’s a good reason. Jeremy Gelman / Managing Editor - July 3, 2020 They’re not just scoring political points; they’re setting up their agenda for a Democratic win in November.
At the heart of Trump’s Taliban bounty crisis are questions about the President’s Daily Brief Michael Poznansky - July 2, 2020 Presidential decision making relies on good intel
Trump fired a federal prosecutor investigating his allies. Can he do that? Anne Joseph O’Connell - June 24, 2020 Here’s what you need to know about this Friday night massacre — and why it matters
Under the Insurrection Act of 1807, here’s what a U.S. president can and cannot do Steve Vladeck - June 19, 2020 Invoking this statute to deploy the U.S. military would raise constitutional questions
Four ways Donald Trump is already manipulating the U.S. elections Spencer Piston and Nic Cheeseman - June 15, 2020 Biden said Trump will try to steal the election. That’s already underway.
Congress can’t easily pass police reforms. Here’s why. Sarah Binder - June 5, 2020 Public attention will shift — and the Republican Senate will ignore House action.
Trump wants to defund the World Health Organization. That could hurt health partnerships in Africa. Emmanuel Balogun and Amy Patterson - May 5, 2020 Here’s why these collaborations help U.S. strategic goals.
So do morals matter in U.S. foreign policy? I asked the expert. Henry Farrell - April 23, 2020 A new book by Joseph S. Nye Jr. suggests that for presidents, good intentions are not enough.
This is the problem with calling it a ‘war’ against coronavirus Jessica Blankshain and Danielle Lupton - April 20, 2020 War changes the rules — for better or worse
Why Trump has received a much smaller approval bump than other world leaders during the pandemic Shane Markowitz - April 7, 2020 The country’s highly polarized two-party system discourages ‘rallying around the flag’
Apparently, Trump ignored early coronavirus warnings. That has consequences. Michael Poznansky - March 22, 2020 Other presidents distrusted their intelligence teams — often with dire results.
3 ways the coronavirus could end Trump’s presidency Michael Tesler - March 9, 2020 Voters are very influenced by what happens in an election year
Why Trump and the RNC are spending $10 million to fight Democrats’ voting rights lawsuits Richard Hasen - March 5, 2020 It’s part of a long trend of election litigation that is likely to hit an all-time high in 2020
Trump tweets that he’s America’s chief law enforcement officer. That’s only true if others let him be. William D. Adler - February 19, 2020 Impartial law enforcement is critical for democracy.
Despite the messy caucus results, Iowa will probably keep going first during primary season Josh Putnam - February 4, 2020 Iowa’s status is easy to criticize — and hard to change
Trump just de-escalated in the Middle East. Here’s why we shouldn’t be surprised. Andrew Payne - January 10, 2020 In an election year, presidents don’t want U.S. troops in harm’s way
Incumbent presidents usually get more popular when they run for reelection. Will Trump? John Sides - January 6, 2020 Trump’s best-case scenario could be what happened to Barack Obama.
Attacking Iran will not help Trump win reelection. Here’s why. Michael Tesler - January 4, 2020 Military crises don’t always trigger a rally around the flag
The ‘skinny’ articles of impeachment mean more than you may think Sarah Burns - December 13, 2019 Here’s how they’re like — and unlike — past impeachment charges.
Biden plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. Here’s what we learned about America’s longest war. Elizabeth N. Saunders - December 11, 2019 Here are experts’ key takeaways on the war in Afghanistan, drawn from the Afghanistan Papers.
Trump overrode the Navy’s plans to discipline a SEAL. That wasn’t as troubling as some think. Carrie Lee - December 9, 2019 Firing a civilian Navy secretary – not a career military officer – averted a potential crisis.
Barr blames lawyers for undermining the president’s power. Actually, they helped build it. Amanda Hollis-Brusky - November 18, 2019 Federalist Society lawyers are the architects in chief of the “imperial presidency.”
30 years after the Berlin Wall fell, some former Soviet-controlled countries are dismantling democracy. What happened? Pauline Jones and Anna Grzymala-Busse - November 8, 2019 How did Russia, populism and ‘illiberal democracy’ creep back in?
When the Berlin Wall fell 30 years ago, it shook up U.S. politics. Here’s how. James Goldgeier - November 8, 2019 Republicans have been divided on foreign policy ever since the Cold War ended.
Think celebrities get punished for being political? In fact, they get retweeted. Joshua Tucker, Jonathan Nagler, Jan Zilinsky, and Cristian Vaccari - October 27, 2019 Michael Jordan’s supposed dictum — “Republicans buy sneakers, too” — may be outdated.
Would a ‘not guilty’ impeachment verdict help Trump? Martin Wattenberg - October 24, 2019 It didn’t help Bill Clinton
Now that Trump has abandoned the Kurds, will other countries ever trust the U.S.? Marina E. Henke - October 16, 2019 Alliances are based on trust, not just U.S. assistance
Is the impeachment inquiry really ‘unconstitutional’? Andrew Rudalevige - October 10, 2019 There’s a long history of White House lawyers saying what the boss wants to hear.
President Trump tapped Gen. Mark Milley as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Here are 3 things to know. Jim Golby - September 30, 2019 Statements by the JCS chairman can have a significant impact on public opinion.
What Americans really think about California’s auto emissions waiver — and what could change their minds Karthick Ramakrishnan, Jennifer L. Merolla, Chris Haynes, and Allan Colbern - September 24, 2019 A narrow majority supports the waiver, but some people can be persuaded either way.
Military service was once a fast track to U.S. citizenship. The Trump administration keeps narrowing that possibility. Theresa Schroeder, Rebecca Best, Kyleanne Hunter, and Jeremy Teigen - September 5, 2019 And that’s hurting military readiness and effectiveness.
Why young white evangelicals aren’t likely to leave the Republican Party Ryan Burge, Paul Djupe, and Jeremiah J. Castle - September 3, 2019 Maybe they don’t like Trump. But that’s not what counts.
U.S. military confrontation with Iran would be unpopular. Here’s why. Jason Brownlee - August 19, 2019 Survey data shows when Americans are – and aren’t – up for intervention.
What does Israel’s response to two U.S. congresswomen mean for the future? Brent E. Sasley - August 16, 2019 The U.S.-Israel relationship has been rocky for years.
Iran’s cooperation with the Taliban could affect talks on U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan Ariane M. Tabatabai - August 8, 2019 Here’s what’s motivating the recently publicized ties.
‘Foreign Intervention in Africa After the Cold War’ looks at new players and old powers in Africa’s conflicts Anna Mwaba - July 11, 2019 Author Elizabeth Schmidt tackles important questions on foreign intervention in one accessible text.
Conservative legal groups are suing public school yoga and mindfulness programs. This explains why. Candy Gunther Brown - July 9, 2019 If not everyone thinks they’re secular, what does that mean for the separation of church and state?
Trump picked a fight with India. Here’s what’s going on. Christopher Clary - July 2, 2019 Trump exacerbates India’s strategic fears.
The Trump administration is revealing U.S. intelligence operations. Is it revealing too much? Austin Carson and Allison Carnegie - June 20, 2019 Every administration faces tension between credibility and protecting sources — but it’s especially sharp for Trump.