Negotiations over Ukraine are likely to fail. Here’s why. Stacie Goddard - November 17, 2023 Several factors can foil conflict negotiations. The Russian war in Ukraine has them all.
Putin’s Russia navigates Middle East conflict and war in Ukraine Joshua Tucker, Samuel Greene, and Kathryn Stoner - November 6, 2023 Two experts discuss the broader impact of the Israel-Hamas war.
America and Europe are targeting Russia’s oil profits Henry Farrell and Agathe Demarais / Managing Editor - December 21, 2022 The oil price cap makes it harder for Russia to use oil money to buy weapons and pay soldiers.
How to decode Putin’s nuclear warnings James Cameron - September 22, 2022 What is the risk of Russian nuclear use in Ukraine? Here’s what you need to know.
The invasion of Ukraine has upended Russian education Ksenia Northmore-Ball, Katerina Tertytchnaya, Eugenia Nazrullaeva, and Anja Neundorf - September 14, 2022 Russia continues to expand lessons in “patriotic” values, this research finds
Do Ukrainians want a ceasefire? Karina V. Korostelina and Gerard Toal - August 30, 2022 A new survey reveals how people on the front lines process the tradeoffs of war
Ukrainians believe they’ll win the war, a survey finds Serhii Dembitskyi and Mikhail Alexseev - August 14, 2022 They’re optimistic about the future, despite months of trauma
How many Ukrainian refugees have been trafficked? We won’t know for years. Laura A. Dean - July 21, 2022 Their fates will depend in part on which country they’ve landed in – and whether that country has comprehensive policies and services
Is Russia’s wartime propaganda more powerful than family bonds? Tymofii Brik, Jordan Gans-Morse, and Aaron Erlich - June 19, 2022 A new survey examines the conversations between Ukrainians and their Russian relatives
Ukraine’s Eurovision victory was political. So is Eurovision itself. Lauren Gilbert - May 16, 2022 Eurovision songs and voting are sometimes war by other means
Macron won in France — but Le Pen came closer than before Sophie Meunier - April 25, 2022 Marine Le Pen shifted toward a more socialist economic policy and focused less on far-right rhetoric
Do people in Donbas want to be ‘liberated’ by Russia? John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal, and Gwendolyn Sasse - April 14, 2022 We surveyed people in Ukraine’s contested eastern region to see what they wanted. Here’s what we found.
Russians think they’re engaged in a heroic struggle with the West Lily Wojtowicz and Dina Smeltz - April 13, 2022 A new survey finds that the public in Russia believes President Vladimir Putin’s rationale for the ‘military operation’ in Ukraine.
How popular is Putin, really? John Reuter, Noah Buckley, Kyle L. Marquardt, and Katerina Tertytchnaya - April 12, 2022 The image of Putin’s popularity bolsters his actual popularity, our research finds. But staged perceptions of popularity can be fragile.
Foreign companies continue to prop up the Kremlin Jura Liaukonyte - April 7, 2022 Some companies are only making vague commitments to get out of Russia
What’s so funny about a Russian invasion? Chonlawit Sirikupt - April 6, 2022 Here’s how Kyiv is wielding humor in its information war against Moscow
Ukraine’s oligarchs are united against Russia Silviya Nitsova - April 4, 2022 That wasn’t the case in 2014.
Ukraine updated its defense institutions — and is defying expectations Louis-Alexandre Berg and Andrew Radin - March 29, 2022 Procurement changes addressed corruption and boosted Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Ukraine has been winning the messaging wars. It’s been preparing for years. Torey McMurdo - March 27, 2022 My research examined how the country learned to craft a powerful national narrative — and limit Russian misinformation
Hundreds of Western companies quickly exited Russia. Why didn’t Putin see that coming? Igor Logvinenko - March 21, 2022 Here’s what Russia may have learned about globalization and corruption
An international court is investigating possible war crimes in Ukraine. What does that mean, exactly? Courtney Hillebrecht - March 21, 2022 The ICC can investigate Russia even though it’s not a member.
Ukraine invasion tests the relationship between Russia and China Elizabeth Wishnick and Andrew Taffer - March 14, 2022 Their ‘unlimited’ partnership may have some limits after all
People around the world are protesting the Russian invasion. Will their protests work? Erica Chenoweth - March 14, 2022 Within Ukraine, Russia and elsewhere, here’s what we know about civil resistance
There are two ways to kick Russia out of the world trade system. One is more likely to work. Timothy Meyer and Todd N. Tucker - March 11, 2022 Would WTO members change the rules?
Could Ukraine become neutral, like Switzerland? Five things to know. Audrey Kurth Cronin - March 9, 2022 Neutral countries today are nonaligned — and well-armed
Even Russian-speaking Ukrainians don’t want to be evacuated to Russia or Belarus Michał Bilewicz - March 7, 2022 The research shows that Russian speakers across much of Ukraine identify as Ukrainian
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t rely on cyberwarfare. Here’s why. Shawn W. Lonergan, Erica D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen - March 7, 2022 Cyber operations don’t win wars, our research finds.
Germany didn’t used to spend much on its military. Putin changed that. Marina E. Henke - March 6, 2022 Many German politicians were convinced that the Russian president was bluffing about Ukraine
Russia’s land grabs in Ukraine could break the international order Sara Mitchell, Paul Hensel, Krista Wiegand, and Andrew Owsiak - March 3, 2022 Would other countries also try to claim territory that contains their ethnic kin?
Congressional Democrats and Republicans are united in confronting Russia. That unity won’t last. Jordan Tama - March 3, 2022 Americans generally oppose Russia and support freedom, no matter their party.
NATO can’t send troops to Ukraine. Here is what it will probably do instead. Sara Moller - February 28, 2022 The security and defense of alliance members that border Russia and Ukraine will be a top priority.
There’s a reason Putin can be so aggressive: Oil. Jeff D. Colgan and Jessica Weeks - February 27, 2022 Putin’s personalist rule leaves few domestic checks on his power.
Putin is breaking 70 years of norms by invading Ukraine. What comes next? Tanisha Fazal - February 25, 2022 Up until now, Russia tried to look like it was playing by the rules.
The U.S. and Europe didn’t get what they wanted from Putin. But Putin didn’t get what he wanted from them. Andrew H. Kydd - February 22, 2022 Russia’s president made threats without offering assurances
Putin is gambling his future — and Russia’s Zhaotian Luo and Scott Gehlbach - February 19, 2022 What would an invasion of Ukraine mean for Russia?
The German economy depends on Russian gas. There’s a long history behind that. Marina E. Henke - February 18, 2022 What happens now to the Nord Stream 2 project?
Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. Russians don’t want it to. John Reuter, Katerina Tertytchnaya, Henry E. Hale, David Szakonyi, and Bryn Rosenfeld - February 11, 2022 For Putin, invading Ukraine comes with political risk at home, these surveys show
Putin likes to talk about Russians and Ukrainians as ‘one people.’ Here’s the deeper history. Jeffrey Mankoff - February 9, 2022 For centuries, Moscow has worried that foreign powers are scheming to separate Ukraine from Russia.
When Xi and Putin declared a united front against the United States Stacie Goddard - February 8, 2022 A February 2022 joint statement reveals strong views about sovereignty and territorial integrity.
A majority of Ukrainians support joining NATO. Does this matter? Olga Onuch and Javier Pérez Sandoval - February 4, 2022 Support has been growing across all parts of Ukraine — not just regions close to Europe
The conflict over Ukraine is a conflict over international order. That makes it nearly impossible to resolve. Bear Braumoeller - January 31, 2022 Why are two world powers so intent on controlling Ukraine?
Experts from NATO countries disagree on how to approach Ukraine Volodymyr Kulyk, Mykola Riabchuk, Nadiia Koval, Marianna Fakhurdinova, and Kateryna Zarembo - January 26, 2022 Different countries have very different narratives about the crisis
If Russia invades Ukraine, what happens next? David Lake - January 22, 2022 Many Ukrainians wouldn’t favor a pro-Russian leader — but would the U.S. support an anti-Russian insurgency?
Biden’s rhetoric on Ukraine has been quite moderate. Here’s what that means. Abigail S. Post - January 17, 2022 The language leaders use can shape international disputes, this research finds.
The U.S. seems ready for tougher sanctions against Russia. But is Europe? Maria Shagina - January 14, 2022 It’s not clear that sweeping sanctions are credible
Satellites make it harder for countries to launch surprise attacks. That’s in Ukraine’s favor. Erik Gartzke and Bryan Early - January 14, 2022 But seeing what’s happening on the ground doesn’t help explain Russia’s motives
What do Russia’s cyber moves mean for the Ukraine crisis? Shawn W. Lonergan and Erica D. Lonergan - January 11, 2022 Ambiguous signals raise the risk of miscalculating what’s really going on
The E.U. renewed its Russia sanctions last week. Not all Europeans are in favor. Paulina Pospieszna, Joanna Skrzypczyńska, Dawid Walentek, and Clara Portela - December 22, 2021 How Europe’s leaders keep the consensus on sanctions — but soften the economic blow at home
Biden is threatening Putin with European energy sanctions. That may be difficult to pull off. Emily Holland - December 15, 2021 Europe is counting on a new Russian gas pipeline to alleviate energy shortages
A Florida security company is entangled in the assassination of Haiti’s president. How is that possible? Deborah Avant - July 19, 2021 An increasing number of clients and providers in the private security market are dodging the rules
The Kremlin has a new toolkit for shutting down independent news media Tom Paskhalis, Katerina Tertytchnaya, and Bryn Rosenfeld - June 28, 2021 Worldwide, authoritarians are finding less overt ways to shut down independent news — and independent outlets are finding new ways to stay alive
The E.U. can’t stick to its Belarus sanctions. Will this time be different? Alexander Lanoszka - May 25, 2021 Further sanctions might harm ordinary Belarusians — and push leaders and businesses closer to Russia
The U.S. and NATO promised to protect Ukraine. If Ukraine is the aggressor, all bets are off. Ivanka Barzashka - May 13, 2021 Here’s what we learned from extensive war-gaming on the Ukraine-Russia conflict
Russians supported Putin’s moves in Crimea in 2014. Here’s what’s different in 2021. Timothy Frye - April 11, 2021 Survey data suggest it will be hard for Putin to rally support for a direct military intervention
A new survey of the Ukraine-Russia conflict finds deeply divided views in the contested Donbas region Kristin Bakke, John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal, and Gwendolyn Sasse - February 11, 2021 Many in the breakaway territory see a future with Russia
Alexei Navalny’s return to Russia — and his arrest — have upended Russian politics Joshua Tucker - January 27, 2021 What’s happening in the country, part 2.
By trying to silence protesters, Vladimir Putin is falling into a repression trap Timothy Frye - January 26, 2021 As the Russian president becomes less popular, he’s turning to blunt coercion
How a possible Biden victory is shaping international politics, even before Nov. 3 Scott Wolford and Cathy X. Wu - October 21, 2020 Americans aren’t the only ones watching the 2020 presidential election closely
If Putin sends troops to Belarus, don’t expect Russians to applaud Maria Snegovaya - September 14, 2020 Russians don’t like military adventures in bad economic times, my research finds
Putin’s support is weakening. Will that show up in Russia’s regional elections this weekend? Samuel Greene, Jeremy Morris, Grigore Pop-Eleches, Robertson Graeme, and Bryn Rosenfeld - September 10, 2020 Our survey finds these new cracks in his popularity
‘Fake news’ methods change faster than Western governments can react. Here’s how to keep up. H. Akin Unver - August 13, 2020 Understanding how Russia, Turkey and the Gulf nations use disinformation could guide better safeguards against foreign interference
Flight MH17 crashed six years ago. Ukrainians have very different views on who’s to blame. Kristin Bakke, John O’Loughlin, and Gerard Toal - July 16, 2020 Russian misinformation may be drowning out factual evidence
Why didn’t the U.S. rebuke Russia for its Taliban bounty deal? Four things to know. Asfandyar Mir - July 1, 2020 The Trump administration’s response seems unusual, on a number of levels
It’s Russia Day. What do high-ranking Russians think about the U.S.? Joshua Tucker - June 12, 2020 We get the scoop from William Zimmerman and Sharon Werning Rivera
Withdrawing thousands of troops from Germany will be costly for U.S. Mira Rapp-Hooper - June 8, 2020 These troops weren’t just protecting Germany.
The Belarus government is largely ignoring the pandemic. Here’s why. Tatsiana Kulakevich - April 21, 2020 With elections coming, this could be a risky move
Six years and $20 billion in Russian investment later, Crimeans are happy with Russian annexation Kristin Bakke, John O’Loughlin, and Gerard Toal - March 18, 2020 Our survey shows high levels of trust in Putin — though lower than in 2014.
Is Ukraine caught between Europe and Russia? We asked Ukrainians this important question. Kristin Bakke, John O’Loughlin, and Gerard Toal - February 25, 2020 Our new survey shows a divided nation
Why are Republicans using Putin’s talking points? This study helps explain. Olga Kamenchuk and Henry E. Hale - February 3, 2020 Increasingly, Republican voters think Vladimir Putin is a good leader. But Russians don’t feel the same way about President Trump.
Russia’s prime minister has just resigned. Putin clearly has plans. Timothy Frye - January 15, 2020 While Putin wants to shake up Russian politics, he also may want to stay in power longer.
Russia wants more influence in Africa. It’s using disinformation to get there. Shelby Grossman - December 2, 2019 Facebook says the oligarch behind the Internet Research Agency is involved.
Trump says he was looking for corruption in Ukraine — where President Zelensky was known for mocking corruption in Ukraine Jessica Pisano - November 14, 2019 Like Trump, Zelensky was a showman before he entered politics. So what does he stand for?
30 years after the Berlin Wall fell, some former Soviet-controlled countries are dismantling democracy. What happened? Pauline Jones and Anna Grzymala-Busse - November 8, 2019 How did Russia, populism and ‘illiberal democracy’ creep back in?
When the Berlin Wall fell 30 years ago, it shook up U.S. politics. Here’s how. James Goldgeier - November 8, 2019 Republicans have been divided on foreign policy ever since the Cold War ended.
Trump’s mismanagement of the withdrawal from Syria hurt alliances — not the withdrawal itself Ronald Krebs and Jennifer Spindel - October 29, 2019 Our research suggests that withdrawals can hearten allies if handled properly.
Trump’s request for a ‘favor’ could really hurt Ukraine’s president and his agenda Oxana Shevel - October 6, 2019 Here’s how Zelensky’s anti-corruption campaign matters for international politics.
World leaders are gathering at the U.N. Yes, U.S. sanctions can make this complicated. David Bosco - September 19, 2019 Travel restrictions are a popular way to punish foreign leaders.
What Turkey’s purchase of a Russian air defense system means for the U.S. and NATO Jennifer Spindel - July 22, 2019 The alliance is far from thrilled about Turkey’s closer ties with Russia
Oil probably won’t cause a war with Iran, but it certainly adds fuel to the blaze Jeff Colgan - July 20, 2019 Tensions are high, and liquid natural gas tankers are vulnerable to attack.
Chernobyl’s effects go far beyond what you’re seeing on HBO. It shook up geopolitics for years. Mariana Budjeryn - July 15, 2019 From the Soviet Union’s fall to Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament, the disaster changed the region.
Why countries target civilians indiscriminately Anna O. Pechenkina - July 8, 2019 Is this just a poor decision — or a calculated trade-off?
Russians’ trust in Putin has plummeted. But that’s not the Kremlin’s only problem. Samuel A. Greene - June 3, 2019 The real bad news is that, increasingly, Russians are refusing to answer the survey question at all.
How has Tiananmen changed China? Yuhua Wang - June 3, 2019 Violence can influence people for a long time — despite repression — because families talk about it.
How Ukraine’s new president broke down a historic divide Miroslav Shapovalov and Konstantin Ash - April 30, 2019 For 20 years, Ukrainians voted largely by region. Not when comedian Volodymyr Zelensky ran.
The WTO just blew up Trump’s argument for steel tariffs Todd Tucker - April 5, 2019 'National security’ justifies trade restrictions only if there’s an actual national security exception.
Trump’s Golan Heights tweet will have global consequences on territorial expansion Stacie Goddard - March 23, 2019 As if undercutting efforts to build a lasting peace with the Palestinians and the region weren’t enough.
Kazakh President Nazarbayev has resigned. Here are three things to watch. Eric McGlinchey - March 20, 2019 A managed succession may be a hard promise to keep.
Could the new fighting between Russia and Ukraine escalate into all-out war? Sara McLaughlin Mitchell - December 5, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81079" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Three Ukrainian naval ships, which were
Why did Ukraine impose martial law? Lucan Way and Keith Darden - November 29, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80812" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko reacts as
Russia and Ukraine had a short naval battle. Here’s what you need to know. Dmitry Gorenburg and Michael Kofman - November 28, 2018 The Nov. 25, 2018, skirmish between Russian Border Guard and
When President Trump heads to Europe, discussion turns to burden-sharing. James Goldgeier - November 14, 2018 Editor's note: On Tuesday, Trump tweeted that French President Emmanuel
The Ukrainian Orthodox Church is trying to withdraw from Moscow’s control. The Kremlin is not happy. Robert Person and Aaron Brantly - October 31, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79609" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople,
Today, NATO begins a huge military exercise. Here’s what you need to know. Ralph Clem - October 25, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79358" align="aligncenter" width="960"] The U.S. Marine Corps version of
Russia is trying to influence the 2018 U.S. election. But this time the U.S. is prepared. Alla Baranovsky-Dewey - September 26, 2018 [caption id="attachment_46299" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People walk in Red Square, with
The Communist Party is supporting the Czech coalition government. What are the implications? Mary Stegmaier and Lukáš Linek - July 26, 2018 [caption id="attachment_76064" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Prime Minister Andrej Babis addresses the
Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings are dropping. This is why. Samuel Greene and Robertson Graeme - July 19, 2018 By rights, Vladimir Putin should be having the time of
What Trump and Putin want from their historic summit Jordan Gans-Morse and Joshua Tucker - July 14, 2018 [caption id="attachment_75621" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump shakes hands with Russian
Will it be ‘happy talk’ — or will Trump and Putin focus on arms control and other critical issues? Joshua Tucker - July 13, 2018 [caption id="attachment_75621" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump shakes hands with Russian
Russia used to see itself as part of Europe. Here’s why that changed. Andrew Foxall - June 18, 2018 [caption id="attachment_74544" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a
Russia is hosting this year’s World Cup. What could go wrong? Richard Arnold and Andrew Foxall - June 14, 2018 [caption id="attachment_74469" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A souvenir vendor shakes hands with