Six months later, the war in Ukraine has no apparent end in sight. President Vladimir Putin formalized new plans last week to expand Russia’s military. This comes on the heels of President Biden announcing the largest commitment of U.S. weapons and ammunition for Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in late February.
Speaking on Aug. 24, Ukraine’s Independence Day, President Volodymyr Zelensky remarked, “What is the end of the war for us? We used to say: peace. Now we say: victory.”
What do Ukrainians think? Public opinion polls suggest Ukrainians share Zelensky’s view, with one recent survey suggesting that 98 percent of Ukrainians believe that their country will win the war. Another survey found that 92 percent of Ukrainians believed in Ukraine’s victory.
Wartime rallying and optimism among ordinary Ukrainians is real. But research suggests wartime experience and location also matter. Our research in three front line Ukrainian cities reveals that people process the dilemmas of war in different ways. Ukrainians hold divergent views on how their country can best confront war’s painful trade-offs.
Ukrainians believe they’ll win the war, a survey finds
To understand the views of war-affected Ukrainians, we organized a face-to-face survey of over 1,800 Ukrainians, half of whom were local residents and half of whom were internally displaced people (IDPs). Participants were selected across three towns — Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Poltava — close to the regions involved in active fighting. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology administered the survey in July, and talked to local residents using a random selection of electoral precincts. Displaced Ukrainians were interviewed at specialized IDP housing locations. Overall, locals far outnumber IDPs in these cities. The survey findings reveal important differences in thinking about key wartime dilemmas.
Ceasefire or victory?
The war in Ukraine is among the more deadly wars in the last 200 years, though precise casualty figures are hard to locate. The Pentagon estimates that Russia may have suffered upward of 80,000 killed and wounded. Ukrainian numbers are rarely discussed, but Zelensky acknowledged Ukraine was losing between 100 and 200 people a day in May and June.
We used this figure to pose the following dilemma to respondents: “Some believe that Ukraine should look for ways to cease fire, even through concessions, in order to save lives. Others believe that a cease-fire cannot be achieved through concessions, as this will be a betrayal of the dead. What do you think?”
We offered respondents three options: “yes, we need an immediate cease-fire no matter the territorial cost” (5.6 percent chose this response); “yes, we need a cease-fire but only under the right conditions” (15.4 percent); and “no we should only have a cease-fire when we have liberated all our lands” (70.5 percent).
These results suggest that a strong majority of front line Ukrainians support Zelensky’s views and the sentiments that Ukraine should fight until it achieves victory. For many Ukrainians, liberation takes priority over peace. Other results, however, suggest a more complex picture.
Do people in Donbas want to be ‘liberated’ by Russia?
Lives or territory?
In the first question, the cost we explicitly named related to territory. But what if lives and territory are directly opposed as costs? When respondents were presented with this dilemma, the variation in opinion significantly increased — as shown in the figure. We asked respondents “What do you consider more important? (1) Save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians or (2) continue the war to free all Ukrainian territories including Crimea and Donbas” — and asked them to indicate whether they felt option (1) or option (2) was very important or slightly important, or if they saw both options as equally important.
Is it more important to (1) save lives or (2) free all Ukrainian territories?
Close to 27 percent of our sample of front line Ukrainians believe that it’s more important to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians rather than continue the war to free all Ukrainian territories including Crimea and Donbas. And 36 percent believe the opposite, prioritizing reclaiming all areas of the country currently under Russian control. Ukrainians overwhelmingly held strong views — both groups saw this topic as “very important.” In contrast, 34 percent saw both needs as equally important (“don’t know” and “refuse to answer” responses made up the rest).
Significantly, across all three cities, Ukrainians forcefully displaced because of the war tended to rank saving lives over territorial liberation more than local residents of these cities (40 percent vs. 26 percent in Poltava; 33 percent vs. 22 percent in Zaporizhzhia; and 35 percent vs. 27 percent in Dnipro).
Similarly, when we approached the issue indirectly by asking respondents their opinion on the extent to which most Ukrainians agree or disagree with some statements, 46 percent of respondents believe that for Ukrainians it is imperative to seek a cease-fire to stop Russians from killing Ukraine’s young men as the future of the nation. And 36 percent felt that Ukrainians should disagree with this position and avoid seeking the cease-fire.
Displaced respondents, who are personally impacted by the war, expressed a stronger belief than local residents that seeking a cease-fire to prevent the deaths of more young men is vital to Ukrainians (55 percent vs. 46 percent in Poltava; 59 percent vs. 44 percent in Zaporizhzhia; 61 percent vs. 45 percent in Dnipro).
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What’s the bottom line? The front line Ukrainians in our study, especially those whose lives have been uprooted by the war, don’t necessarily think the same way — they respond to the tragic dilemma of seeking a cease-fire to save lives or fighting until victory differently. Those directly affected by violence are more likely to support saving lives.
Given straightforward questions with clear patriotic answers, Ukrainians overwhelmingly affirm their belief in victory. But given indirect and trade-off dilemma questions, important differences of emphasis emerge.
Ukrainians understandably want to defeat Russia’s aggression, to achieve victory and liberate their lands. They are also understandably torn when faced with the real life-or-death dilemmas of this war. Recognizing differences among Ukrainians is important for all those interested in how Ukraine survives this war, successfully negotiates its end, and builds a peaceful future beyond it.
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Karina V. Korostelina is a professor and director of the Program on Prevention of Mass Violence and the Program on History, Memory, and Conflict at the Carter School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University.
Gerard Toal is a political geographer and professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at Virginia Tech’s campus in Arlington, Va. His new book, “Oceans Rise Empires Fall: Why Geopolitics Hastens Climate Catastrophe”, will be published next year.
This research was supported by National Science Foundation award number 2226741.