Sonic Youth, ‘New Hampshire’: The Week In One Song Christopher Federico - January 26, 2024 Trump wins in New Hampshire.
Almost all Republicans will vote for Trump this fall Michael Tesler - January 25, 2024 Ignore recent exit polls to the contrary. Minds will change by November.
Trump’s GOP rivals are letting him off easy – again John Sides - December 12, 2023 Just as in the 2016 primary, they’d rather attack each other than Trump.
Why Donald Trump is happy a Colorado judge called him an insurrectionist Andrew Rudalevige - November 28, 2023 What happens when Trump's 2024 candidacy confronts the 14th Amendment?
Transgender candidates win elections. Here’s why. Zein Murib - November 13, 2023 Some research suggests the wave of trans candidates’ wins is unexpected.
Why the president can’t just fire bureaucrats Andrew Rudalevige - September 20, 2023 The "unitary executive theory" has its limits
What did we learn from the 2022 U.S. midterm elections? Christopher Stout - December 26, 2022 The TMC 2022 roundups: U.S. elections
Did amateur candidates cost Republicans the U.S. Senate? Carlos Algara and Byengseon Bae / Managing Editor - December 7, 2022 A lot of amateurs ran for the Senate this year and lost. Here’s what you need to know.
A third party could be successful. But probably not this one. Seth Masket - August 3, 2022 To win voters, a party has to stand for something. But what would the Forward Party do in office?
Republicans want to hand-count paper ballots. That’s less accurate. Charles Stewart III / Managing Editor - May 25, 2022 But expect state legislatures to file bills to ban ballot scanners in 2023 and beyond
Why counting vaccinated Americans doesn’t always add up David Lazer - April 7, 2022 The percentages the CDC reports don’t necessarily line up with census data. Here’s why.
Politics is still local. When incumbents face off in redrawn districts, community ties make a big difference. Charles Hunt - November 29, 2021 Yes, party matters. But so do incumbents’ deep ties to their districts.
Thirty states have covid-19 shield laws that businesses didn’t need or want. So why pass them? Nicholas Barry Creel and Jehan El-Jourbagy - September 15, 2021 Politics, politics, politics
State legislators make big decisions. So why do they get tiny paychecks? Christopher Cooper - September 8, 2021 New research uncovered one surprising reason.
Biden reversed Trump ban on transgender people serving in military. Expect backlash in states. Zein Murib - February 2, 2021 More than 20 bills restricting transgender freedoms have already been introduced.
Biden’s climate change plan is all about jobs and justice Leigh Raymond - January 27, 2021 States have been using this message for the past 20 years
Here are six big takeaways from the 2020 elections Emily Thorson and Chris Warshaw - November 7, 2020 Yes, polls are important
These nine swing states will see the biggest ‘blue shift’ as ballots are counted after the election Roy H. Perlis, Matthew Simonson, Mauricio Santillana, Matthew A. Baum, Katherine Ognyanova, Jonathan Green, Jennifer Lin, James Druckman, Hanyu Chwe, David Lazer, Alexi Quintana Mathé, and Adina Gitomer - October 19, 2020 Biden’s margin will almost certainly improve as mail-in ballots are counted — by up to 60 percentage points
Why Indian Americans are not becoming Republicans any time soon Sumitra Badrinathan, Milan Vaishnav, and Devesh Kapur - October 14, 2020 Our study examines why they’re sticking with the Democrats
These states are most likely to boost turnout — despite the pandemic Michael J. Pomante II - October 7, 2020 The Cost of Voting Index is keeping tabs on which states have made it easier to vote this year.
For Democratic governors, it pays to have a Democratic attorney general. Republicans, not so much. Nicholas Miras - August 2, 2020 Many states split up executive branch power among several elected officials. Here’s what happens when they are not from the same party.
States lead the fight against covid-19. That means we all depend on Medicaid now. Josh Pacewicz - April 7, 2020 And state Medicaid systems differ dramatically — giving the nation 50 different public health systems.
This 37-year-old book helps the long Democratic primary make sense David A. Hopkins - March 20, 2020 Reforms reduced party bosses’ power to pick a candidate — and handed that power to the media instead.
If Biden wins the nomination, will Sanders supporters vote for him? Jarrod Kelly and Eric Loepp - March 12, 2020 Maybe not. They don’t feel loyal to the Democratic Party.
Democrats aren’t voting only on ‘electability.’ They’re just as interested in candidates’ stances on the issues. Barry Burden - March 3, 2020 Here’s what new research shows
Why nobody knows how to assess Bloomberg’s chances — including political scientists Caitlin Jewitt - February 28, 2020 Past performance usually does predict results. But we’ve got no precedent for Bloomberg’s approach.
Who are black voters supporting in 2020? Here’s what we might learn from South Carolina. David Darmofal - February 26, 2020 It’s complicated.
Sanders and Bloomberg want to redistribute wealth. Most millionaires and billionaires don’t. Marko Klašnja, Gonzalo Rivero, and Elizabeth Suhay - February 16, 2020 They think they got rich by working hard and being smart – and deserve every penny.
Can Bernie Sanders break out beyond his base in New Hampshire? Dante J. Scala - February 10, 2020 Flexibility brings in a wider range of voters — and enough delegates to win the nomination
Despite the messy caucus results, Iowa will probably keep going first during primary season Josh Putnam - February 4, 2020 Iowa’s status is easy to criticize — and hard to change
The Democratic nominee is often settled by Super Tuesday. Don’t hold your breath this year. Caitlin Jewitt - February 4, 2020 Here’s the primary calendar, explained
Would Booker and Castro be in tonight’s debate if polls counted people of color accurately? Matt A. Barreto - December 18, 2019 Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate. Here’s how that skews the results.
California’s ‘Fair Pay to Play’ law for college athletes has other states racing to join up. Here’s why. Roshaun Colvin and Joshua Jansa - November 18, 2019 Even the NCAA is changing its rules on athlete pay.
Will voters support Elizabeth Warren’s trade policy? Our research says yes. Ida Bastiaens and Evgeny Postnikov - September 29, 2019 Including labor and environmental protections in trade deals boosts popular support for free trade
Who’s winning the Democratic debates? Here’s what Google search trends can’t tell you. Filippo Trevisan - July 30, 2019 What do those search spikes really mean, anyway?
New polling shows how much sexism is hurting the Democratic women running for president. Sam Luks and Brian Schaffner - July 11, 2019 More than a quarter of Democratic primary voters score higher than average on a “hostile sexism” scale.
Trump’s Fourth of July celebration is partisan and militaristic — just like the early Independence Day celebrations Simon Gilhooley - July 4, 2019 Americans in the 19th century wouldn’t have minded the partisanship or military parades, but would have balked at glorifying the commander in chief.
There’s a problem with Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s approach to revitalizing South Bend. Josh Pacewicz - May 12, 2019 Struggling cities and towns are in a costly, zero-sum competition for jobs.
Can Bill Weld unseat Trump? Let’s look at the history of challenges to incumbent presidents. Adam Hilton - April 26, 2019 Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld speaks during a New England
The 2018 blue wave included quite a few LGBT wins — even though voters are still wary of gay and trans candidates. Gabriele Magni and Andrew Reynolds - November 25, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80572" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) declares victory
New forecast: Democrats may gain control of 7 state legislative chambers John Sides - November 5, 2018 [caption id="attachment_78207" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A man arrives to vote on
Will there be a ‘rainbow wave’? 4 things to know about LGBTQ candidates running for office this year. Charles Gossett and Andrew Reynolds - October 22, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79173" align="aligncenter" width="960"] The first openly gay U.S. senator,
There’s an old conservative idea behind Donald Trump’s threat to regulate Google Henry Farrell - September 4, 2018 [caption id="attachment_77325" align="aligncenter" width="960"] The logo of Google is pictured
How today’s big Supreme Court case on public-sector unions could lead to a fiscal crisis Jeffrey Kucik and Daniel DiSalvo - February 26, 2018 [caption id="attachment_69679" align="alignnone" width="960"] The Supreme Court in Washington at
Americans think opioid addiction is a crisis. They’re not sure federal dollars will solve it. Travis Johnston - August 10, 2017 What do Americans think should be done about the opioid
Does military equipment lead police officers to be more violent? We did the research. Ryan Welch and Jack Mewhirter - June 30, 2017 [caption id="attachment_60519" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Slain teenager Jordan Edwards's mother, Charmaine
Despite Trump, many cities and states are fighting climate change. Including Pittsburgh. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo - June 6, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59367" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Demonstrators protest President Trump's decision to
Trump’s nominations for U.S. ambassador are hardly draining the swamp Dennis Jett - May 22, 2017 [caption id="attachment_58630" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former senator Scott Brown speaks in Nashua,
This is how you stop fake news Adam Berinsky - March 28, 2017 “Fake news” has become big news. President Trump has regularly
We can’t find any evidence of voting fraud in New Hampshire. Sean Westwood, Michael Herron, and David Cottrell - February 28, 2017 [caption id="attachment_54730" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A ballot box is set Nov.
The DeVos confirmation vote suggests Trump will have a tough time passing a school voucher law Mona Vakilifathi - February 8, 2017 Despite thousands of phone calls, a pizza delivery and two
There are huge holes in how the U.S. states investigate politicians’ conflicts of interest Pedro Cruz, Mike Beaudet, and John Wihbey - January 12, 2017 [caption id="attachment_50207" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A voter casts a ballot behind
Why don’t more Americans vote? Maybe because they don’t trust U.S. elections. Pippa Norris, Max Grömping, and Holly Garnett - December 26, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49104" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Wristbands for voters at a polling
The Wisconsin recount may have a surprise in store after all Stephen Ansolabehere, Kenneth Mayer, Charles Stewart III, and Barry Burden - December 5, 2016 Thanks to the efforts of Green Party presidential candidate Jill
We checked Trump’s allegations of voter fraud. We found no evidence at all. Sean Westwood, Michael Herron, and David Cottrell - December 2, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49957" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks
Two of the most prominent arguments for the electoral college are completely wrong George Edwards - November 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49740" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People protest against President-elect Donald Trump
The U.S. elected fewer openly LGBT legislators this cycle than last. Again. Charles Gossett and Andrew Reynolds - November 11, 2016 A rainbow flag blows during a demonstration in Berlin.
New proposals would let lotteries or experts replace voting. Here’s what’s wrong with that. Der Meer and Eric Schliesser - August 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_45421" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A ballot box sits on a
Do betting markets outperform election polls? Hardly. Thomas Wood - August 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44984" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] President Harry S. Truman holds up
Trump is the first modern Republican to win the nomination based on racial prejudice Michael Tesler - August 1, 2016 Republicans have long been the party of racial conservatism. Since
A lot of election analysis focuses only on the white working class. That’s a mistake. David A. Hopkins - July 6, 2016 [caption id="attachment_43372" align="aligncenter" width="960"] An attendee sits on a stack
What do college students really think about diversity? We asked. Yusaku Horiuchi and John Carey - July 5, 2016 [caption id="attachment_43207" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A student walks by a notice
Yesterday’s Congressional women’s softball game was bipartisan. But are women actually more bipartisan in practice? Mary Nugent and Catherine Wineinger - June 16, 2016 [caption id="attachment_42235" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] The Congressional Members team put their
Is Trump threatening the GOP’s Senate majority? Not yet. John Sides - June 15, 2016 [caption id="attachment_42113" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks
Chris Christie says high state taxes drive millionaires away. Here’s why he’s mistaken. Cristobal Young - June 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41859" align="aligncenter" width="960"] New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie answers
Getting federal stimulus money turned blue U.S. counties bluer, and red counties redder. How can that be? Vanessa Williamson, Kris-Stella Trump, and Katherine Einstein - June 2, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41516" align="aligncenter" width="960"] From left, Deputy Secretary of Transportation
How did the dramatic election of 1968 change U.S. politics? This new book explains. John Sides - May 25, 2016 [caption id="attachment_40583" align="aligncenter" width="908"] The Rev. Billy Graham gives the
Holding hearings for Merrick Garland would actually help Senate Republicans. Here’s how. Barbara Perry - April 19, 2016 [caption id="attachment_36037" align="aligncenter" width="908"] The chair of the late Supreme
Will anxiety about terrorism affect the 2016 election? Clinton has the advantage for now. Shana Gadarian, Joshua Busby, and Bethany Albertson - March 28, 2016 [caption id="attachment_37791" align="aligncenter" width="908"] A mourner places a candle next
Will Trump win over Sanders’ voters on free trade? These 3 graphs help explain how trade affects the election. Erik Voeten - March 21, 2016 The role of trade in the 2016 U.S. election is
The prediction markets were right about Tuesday’s primaries. So what do they say about November? David Rothschild - March 17, 2016 [caption id="attachment_37371" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Voters cast their ballots at Miami
Why isn’t Bernie Sanders expanding the electorate? Adam Levine - February 29, 2016 [caption id="attachment_32039" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Bernie Sanders at a rally Nov.
Trump will win or lose. Either way, the Koch network will still shape the Republican Party. Theda Skocpol, Henry Farrell, and Alexander Hertel-Fernandez - February 29, 2016 [caption id="attachment_36521" align="aligncenter" width="908"] David Koch, executive vice president of
How do primary voters decide between ‘electable’ and ideologically pure? Our research surprised us. Nora Lenhard, Margot Graham, Hazel Millard, Bertram Johnson, and Andrew Plotch - February 26, 2016 In presidential primaries, a voter may agree with one candidate
Is Hillary losing the women’s vote? Nope. Here’s how the gender gap really works. Barbara Norrander - February 26, 2016 [caption id="attachment_24542" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (Reuters/Mike Blake)[/caption] Is a gender gap
Will superdelegates pick the Democratic nominee? Here’s everything you need to know. Stephen Voss - February 26, 2016 [caption id="attachment_34791" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (left)
These 6 charts show how much sexism Hillary Clinton faces on Twitter Rebekah Tromble and Dirk Hovy - February 24, 2016 [caption id="attachment_36253" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Supporters for both former Secretary of
Here’s what Clinton and Sanders need to do to sway Latino and black voters Rudy Alamillo and Loren Collingwood - February 20, 2016 [caption id="attachment_36068" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and
New poll shows that black voters really aren’t ‘Feeling the Bern’ Mackenzie Israel-Trummel and Ariela Schachter - February 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35927" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Supporters cheer for Bernie Sanders at
Everything you need to know about delegate math in the presidential primary John Sides - February 16, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35097" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (Joshua Lott for The Washington Post;
Two reasons the Republican presidential race is still such a mess Tony Lucadamo and Nicole Hemmer - February 16, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35833" align="aligncenter" width="908"] From left, John Kasich, Jeb Bush,
How the ‘Obama effect’ helps Hillary Clinton, and hurts Bernie Sanders, with black voters Michael Tesler - February 16, 2016 [caption id="attachment_23621" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)[/caption] Hillary Clinton
Kraftwerk, ‘The Man-Machine’: The Week In One Song Christopher Federico - February 12, 2016 This week: Marco Rubio robotically repeats himself (multiple times!) at
A key reason young people don’t support Hillary Clinton? They don’t have daughters. Michael Tesler - February 11, 2016 [caption id="attachment_30916" align="aligncenter" width="992"] (Jon Davidson, Office of President Clinton)[/caption]
Here’s what the presidential candidates are really telling us about how they think–and how they’d lead Kayla Jordan and James Pennebaker - February 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35521" align="aligncenter" width="908"] The Republican U.S. presidential candidates debate
Once again, Ted Cruz has an under-appreciated strength in New Hampshire Will Cubbison, Josh Putnam, Craig Goodman, and Boris Shor - February 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35484" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Duane and Joyce Cate leave their
How to understand Trump’s appeal to resentful whites Benjamin Denison - February 3, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35222" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Donald Trump arrives to address his
Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders had a good caucus. But primaries are another matter. Jeremy Pope and Chris Karpowitz - February 3, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35245" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Clockwise: Former Secretary of State Hillary
Can Trump win over the supporters of his Republican opponents? New research says: maybe not. Sean Westwood and Joseph Bafumi - February 1, 2016 [caption id="attachment_34967" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives
The Republican establishment can fix its problems by picking a name out of a hat Joshua Tucker - January 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_34845" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump, left,
Will foreign policy be a major issue in the 2016 election? Here’s what we know. Elizabeth N. Saunders - January 26, 2016 At the last two Republican debates, the looming center-stage presence
Voters vote, non-voters don’t. Why is this so hard for pollsters? Todd Rogers and Adan Acevedo - January 22, 2016 [caption id="attachment_33341" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] A voted places a sticker on
Think you can predict the election? Join our 2016 Forecasting Tournament. John Sides - January 22, 2016 [caption id="attachment_34090" align="aligncenter" width="908"] The Republican presidential candidates are introduced
These were our 10 most popular posts of 2015 John Sides - December 30, 2015 [caption id="attachment_22406" align="aligncenter" width="565"] President Frank Underwood (Kevin Spacey) and
These four reasons explain why bipartisanship is breaking out all over. Will it last? Sarah Binder - December 17, 2015 Congress will close out 2015 with a raft of bipartisan accomplishments. Hill
These days we watch debates on two screens: TV and social media. And that’s good for democracy. Cristian Vaccari, Ben O’Loughlin, and Andrew Chadwick - December 15, 2015 As the Republican presidential hopefuls prepare for their last 2015
Trump continues to lead the polls. Here’s why he might not win the election. David Peterson and David Andersen - December 7, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27331" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Donald Trump speaks on Saturday, July
Ted Cruz cited this research when he said most violent criminals are Democrats. Now the researchers say he’s wrong. Michael Morse and Marc Meredith - December 2, 2015 [caption id="attachment_33043" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz,
Recent veterans are more Republican than older ones. Why? Jeremy Teigen and David Leal - November 11, 2015 [caption id="attachment_32022" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Phil Kirstein, a Vietnam War veteran,
Why Asian Americans don’t vote Republican Cecilia Mo - November 2, 2015 [caption id="attachment_17892" align="aligncenter" width="460"] (Credit: AP/Matt Rourke)[/caption] During the recent