Iran is playing a high-stakes game by attacking Israel Jacquelyn Schneider - April 17, 2024 What political science tells us about conflict, war, and unmanned attacks.
Great movies and TV shows for international relations ▶️ Noah Zerbe - March 20, 2024 Check out two new Good Playlists!
Can the U.S. pressure Israel to end the war? Jeremy Pressman - February 12, 2024 The U.S. government has a long history of trying to restrain Israel, with mixed success.
Did Biden have the authority to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen? Andrew Rudalevige - January 30, 2024 Let’s look at the Constitution, the War Powers Resolution, and what might authorize or constrain military action.
Five things that didn’t happen in the world in 2023 Elizabeth N. Saunders - December 22, 2023 We missed some breakthroughs, but we dodged some disasters.
A closer look at the Gaza casualty data Marc Lynch and Sarah Parkinson - December 14, 2023 Casualty counts can be a political tool – and how we report the data has real consequences.
UK’s refugees-to-Rwanda plan could undermine Northern Ireland peace Stacie Goddard - December 1, 2023 A contested policy to send asylum seekers who arrive in the U.K. to Rwanda could rattle the Good Friday agreement.
What political scientists know about occupation, applied to Gaza Elizabeth N. Saunders, Diana Greenwald, Dana El Kurd, David Edelstein, and Alexander Downes - October 24, 2023 Experts on the politics of foreign occupations tackle big questions in this week’s Good Chat.
How should we think about a mass exodus of Palestinians from Gaza? Elizabeth N. Saunders and Kelly M. Greenhill - October 20, 2023 Governments and non-state actors use mass migration as a tool of war.
Biden will visit Israel during a war. That’s unprecedented. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 17, 2023 The humanitarian crisis and escalation fears heighten uncertainty.
The remarkable rise of isolationist Republicans Michael Tesler - September 20, 2023 Trump’s rise has turned back the clock to the 1930s.
Iraqis voted a year ago but still don’t have a government Hamzeh Hadad - October 10, 2022 Iraq’s democracy depends on consensus — yet parties in the minority in parliament don’t want to take the opposition role
In the Middle East and North Africa, people are worrying about food Michael Robbins and Amaney Jamal - October 6, 2022 Five things to know from Arab Barometer’s latest survey
Russia wants to put Syria back in control of humanitarian aid Jesse Marks / Managing Editor - August 30, 2022 Abandoning the U.N.-established cross-border aid routes could put millions of Syrians at risk
Do armed drones reduce terrorism? Here’s the data. Matthew Fuhrmann and Joshua Schwartz - August 18, 2022 This research analyzes patterns of terrorism in the 18 countries that utilize drones
Thousands of nontraditional fighters have joined the Ukraine war Katherine Kramer and Andrew Bell - July 26, 2022 That puts civilians at risk, research shows
‘Islamic State in Africa’ explores nine militant Islamist groups Dan Eizenga - July 14, 2022 This book takes a comprehensive look at the rise of Islamic State affiliates operating on the continent
Iraq’s populist leader quit parliament. What happens now? Renad Mansour and Benedict Robin-D’Cruz - June 21, 2022 Rallying anti-establishment protests strengthened Muqtada al-Sadr’s hand in the past. It might not work now.
NATO was founded to protect ‘civilized’ people. That means White. Amoz JY Hor - April 10, 2022 Four historical examples show how much race has always mattered in defining ‘Western civilization’
Why democracies win more wars than autocracies Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam - March 30, 2022 Like Putin, dictators tend to start risky wars, our research shows
Condemning Putin will make it harder to end the conflict with Russia Samuel Helfont - March 30, 2022 Consider how hard it was to lift sanctions after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait
Ukraine updated its defense institutions — and is defying expectations Louis-Alexandre Berg and Andrew Radin - March 29, 2022 Procurement changes addressed corruption and boosted Ukraine’s ability to defend itself
Putin is discovering that overwhelming military power can be a curse Todd Sechser - March 29, 2022 As Stalin learned in Finland, small countries can inflict serious damage on invading superpowers
Biden called Putin a ‘war criminal.’ That’s risky. Daniel Krcmaric and Alexander Downes - March 24, 2022 Here’s the downside to prosecuting former leaders
European countries are welcoming Ukrainian refugees. It was a different story in 2015. Lamis Abdelaaty - March 23, 2022 It’s not merely a shared ‘Europeanness,’ this research finds
Calling Ukrainian refugees more ‘civilized’ than Syrians requires willful amnesia Oumar Ba, Lina Benabdallah, and Elif Kalaycioglu - March 21, 2022 The history of the West suggests something else entirely
More than 2 million people have already fled the Ukraine conflict. How will they fare in new countries? Peter Esaiasson, Nazita Lajevardi, and Jacob Sohlberg - March 9, 2022 If European nations want to welcome these refugees, here’s what they can learn from our research
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t rely on cyberwarfare. Here’s why. Shawn W. Lonergan, Erica D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen - March 7, 2022 Cyber operations don’t win wars, our research finds.
Russia’s land grabs in Ukraine could break the international order Sara Mitchell, Paul Hensel, Krista Wiegand, and Andrew Owsiak - March 3, 2022 Would other countries also try to claim territory that contains their ethnic kin?
It’s not just a Putin problem. ‘Personalists’ like him are behind much of the world’s bad behavior. Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz - March 1, 2022 Here’s why this style of autocracy is on the rise.
The Russian invasion has some logistical problems. That doesn’t mean it’s doomed. Ryan Baker - February 28, 2022 Supply problems are the norm, not the exception
There’s a reason Putin can be so aggressive: Oil. Jeff D. Colgan and Jessica Weeks - February 27, 2022 Putin’s personalist rule leaves few domestic checks on his power.
Putin is breaking 70 years of norms by invading Ukraine. What comes next? Tanisha Fazal - February 25, 2022 Up until now, Russia tried to look like it was playing by the rules.
The German economy depends on Russian gas. There’s a long history behind that. Marina E. Henke - February 18, 2022 What happens now to the Nord Stream 2 project?
The Islamic State’s leader died this month. What type of leader might come next? Tricia L. Bacon and Elizabeth Grimm - February 16, 2022 Our book on terrorist leaders gives some clues
Does Putin really want regime change in Ukraine? Alexander Downes - February 9, 2022 The research suggests this rarely works. But countries keep trying anyway.
Thousands of men, women and children remain in detention because of their former ties to ISIS Devorah Margolin and Austin Doctor - February 2, 2022 Our research identifies what’s blocking repatriation
If Russia invades Ukraine, what happens next? David Lake - January 22, 2022 Many Ukrainians wouldn’t favor a pro-Russian leader — but would the U.S. support an anti-Russian insurgency?
Biden promises to fight transnational corruption. But will the U.S. target friends as well as foes? Victor Peskin and Mieczysław Boduszyński - December 20, 2021 Washington tends to avoid confronting allies, this research shows
Are coups really contagious? Salah Ben Hammou and Jonathan Powell - November 21, 2021 The international reaction to a coup attempt may matter more than you think
Sudan’s military coup seems to be supported by some civilian politicians. That’s happened before. Salah Ben Hammou - October 24, 2021 The military has now dissolved the joint civilian-military government.
Qatar’s first elected parliament may have more power than other Persian Gulf legislatures. Here’s why. Dania Thafer - October 13, 2021 The elected-appointed legislator ratio is one key indicator of parliamentary power
South Sudan promised to investigate civil war atrocities. Why hasn’t that happened? Jacqueline R. McAllister - October 5, 2021 The peace deal included a plan for an Africa-led hybrid court
U.S. foreign policy was once all about race. If the U.S. isn’t careful, race may come back. Richard W. Maass - September 22, 2021 A new U.S. partnership with the U.K. and Australia could fuel risky notions of civilizational conflict
What 9/11 taught us about the president, Congress and who makes war and peace Douglas Kriner - September 11, 2021 It’s more complicated than it appears.
Fear of ‘terrorism’ shaped U.S. foreign policy after 9/11. Will the U.S. make China the next big obsession? Ronald Krebs - September 11, 2021 An overarching narrative can lead to fewer foreign policy choices.
20 years later, America’s ‘War on Terror’ language has gone global Somdeep Sen and John Collins - September 9, 2021 Right-wing governments and movements often use these words to justify authoritarian and racist policies.
20 years after 9/11, the U.S. is again in a great power confrontation James Goldgeier - September 9, 2021 The end of the Cold War scrambled U.S. foreign policy — and then 9/11 scrambled it again. Here’s what remains the same.
Afghanistan’s security forces unraveled this month. What broke their seven-year stalemate with the Taliban? Yuri M. Zhukov and Stephen Biddle - August 31, 2021 The dynamics behind this kind of collapse are more common than you might think
Mozambique’s Islamist insurgents are on the run. Integrating former rebel fighters could help usher in peace. Kai M. Thaler - August 26, 2021 Bringing ex-insurgents into a government’s security forces can win over locals and improve intelligence — but only if it is done well.
Groups like the Taliban have seized power elsewhere. Will the Taliban face similar difficulties governing? Raphael Lefevre - August 24, 2021 The research shows how hard it is to go from armed rebellion to leadership
Last month, three drones attacked an Israeli tanker. Here’s why that’s something new. James Rogers - August 18, 2021 Will Iran’s ‘shadow war’ slip into the open?
The U.S. government hasn’t protected noncitizen veterans from deportation. That may change. Elizabeth M.F. Grasmeder - August 12, 2021 The U.S. military has a long history of relying on foreign recruits.
The E.U. is furious that Belarus allowed more than 4,000 migrants to cross into Europe Gerasimos Tsourapas - August 12, 2021 As countries in the global north outsource refugee management to the global south, expect more poor countries to ‘weaponize’ migration.
What are the Taliban’s next moves? Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, and Austin L. Wright - August 9, 2021 Here’s the research on earlier withdrawals from Afghanistan.
Hobby Lobby’s owner returned thousands of artifacts to Iraq. How did he get them in the first place? Daniel Klerman and Anja Shortland - August 9, 2021 Once it was easy to collect gray-market antiquities. Things have tightened up.
The Taliban has seized more cities, despite U.S. efforts to build a strong Afghan military. What happened? Rachel Tecott - August 8, 2021 Persuading partners to emulate the U.S. military approach doesn’t necessarily work, new research finds
Tunisia’s president launched a political crisis. Is it a coup? Nicholas J. Lotito - July 28, 2021 Sunday’s move started a fight for public approval and control of government institutions
Olympic officials resisted pressure to ban Iran from the Tokyo Games, but they’ve banned teams before Thandiwe Keet, Andrew Bertoli, and Aleksandra Smajevic - July 27, 2021 In these 9 cases, sporting authorities tried to ban a country from international competition — sometimes for years
The U.N. says Syrians can keep getting international aid from Turkey — for now. Here’s what’s at stake. Rana B. Khoury - July 22, 2021 Syrian activists have built humanitarian aid groups and a nascent civil society in rebel-held areas — which puts them in danger if the Syrian government retakes that territory.
A Florida security company is entangled in the assassination of Haiti’s president. How is that possible? Deborah Avant - July 19, 2021 An increasing number of clients and providers in the private security market are dodging the rules
Iraqis protest deadly hospital fires as symptom of embedded corruption Renad Mansour - July 19, 2021 Demands for a stable electricity supply also raise the stakes in this fall’s election
Congo officials claim that a rebel group is tied to the Islamic State. That could backfire. Lindsay Scorgie and Mallory Dunlop - July 7, 2021 A local armed group claimed responsibility for recent attacks.
The Islamic State has ‘provinces’ in Africa. That doesn’t mean what you might think. Jason Warner - June 6, 2021 Africa’s militant groups retain considerable autonomy, research shows
International relations scholar Nuno Monteiro asked and answered the big questions about real-world politics Sebastian Rosato, David Edelstein, and Alexandre Debs - May 20, 2021 Monteiro, who passed away this month, influenced debates about U.S. dominance in the world
China and Iran announced a new economic and security partnership. That’s not as alarming as it sounds. Lucille Greer and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj - March 31, 2021 China has similar deals with a number of Middle Eastern countries
Negotiating peace the same old way doesn’t work. Here’s what does. Séverine Autesserre - March 21, 2021 Over 20 years of research, these three things emerged as key to building a lasting peace
If you want to know what Americans think about bombing Iran, find out what they think about race Vladimir Enrique Medenica and David Ebner - March 10, 2021 That matters — because when political leaders shape foreign policy, they keep public opinion in mind.
Saudi Twitter blew up with support for the crown prince. How much of it is genuine? Andrew Leber and Alexei Abrahams - March 8, 2021 Tweets in support of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman racked up after a U.S. report implicated him in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi
The International Criminal Court just elected a new chief prosecutor. Here’s what you need to know. Nastaran Far, Hailey Robertson, and Kelebogile Zvobgo - February 16, 2021 The ICC’s future will rest on the new prosecutor’s success in opening, trying and closing cases — and being fair
Iran and Turkey have become drone powers James Rogers - January 27, 2021 Drones have become the weapon of choice around the world.
Biden reverses Trump’s ‘Muslim ban.’ Americans support the decision. Nazita Lajevardi, Loren Collingwood, and Kassra AR Oskooii - January 26, 2021 In 2017, rallies and protests persuaded a big proportion of citizens that the ban was ‘un-American'
Biden just changed immigration policy. That doesn’t mean you should expect a new wave of immigration. Margaret E. Peters - January 21, 2021 Potential migrants consider many things when deciding whether to leave home. The Biden administration is targeting them with relevant information.
Syria and some host governments want refugees to go home. What do refugees think? Marine Casalis, Daniel Masterson, and Ala’ Alrababa’h - December 23, 2020 Research suggests this pressure won’t convince Syria’s 5.5 million refugees to return
Biden has picked a retired general for defense secretary. Here’s why it matters. Risa A. Brooks, Michael Robinson, and Heidi A. Urben - December 9, 2020 The move marks back-to-back administrations tapping retired generals to fill high-level government positions
Australia discovered that its special forces committed war crimes in Afghanistan Thomas Gift, Charles Miller, and Andrew M. Bell - November 30, 2020 Here’s the research on how militaries can reduce violence against civilians
Does covid-19 raise the risk of violent conflict? Not everywhere. Colette Salemi - October 15, 2020 New research shows conflicts rose in some countries but fell in others.
Important Iraqi archives are now back in Baghdad. Where were they, and what happens now? Marsin Alshamary - September 15, 2020 These documents detail crimes during Saddam Hussein’s regime
U.S. school principals discriminate against Muslims and atheists, our study finds Steven Pfaff, John B. Holbein, Holger L. Kern, and Charles Crabtree - September 10, 2020 Nineteen years after the 9/11 attacks, anti-Muslim bias still operates widely
Another unity government won’t solve Lebanon’s crisis Christiana Parreira - August 20, 2020 Research shows ideologically opposed parties rarely share power well
What happens now to Lebanon’s government? Here’s why real reforms may be unlikely. Bassel Salloukh - August 17, 2020 The Aug. 4 explosion may be unable to shift the power structure.
Why do foreign donors face a tough choice in dealing with Lebanon’s economic crisis? Jamal Ibrahim Haidar and Adeel Malik - July 29, 2020 Sectarianism and cronyism stifle economic reform
Has Israel been sabotaging Iran? Here’s what we know. Dalia Dassa Kaye - July 15, 2020 Four reasons Israel might be waging its shadow war more overtly — which could backfire.
The George Floyd protests generated more media coverage than any protest in 50 years Michael T. Heaney - July 5, 2020 Yes, these are historically significant demonstrations.
At the heart of Trump’s Taliban bounty crisis are questions about the President’s Daily Brief Michael Poznansky - July 2, 2020 Presidential decision making relies on good intel
Why didn’t the U.S. rebuke Russia for its Taliban bounty deal? Four things to know. Asfandyar Mir - July 1, 2020 The Trump administration’s response seems unusual, on a number of levels
U.S. officials are talking about urban warfare. Here’s what urban warfare really involves. Margarita Konaev and Kirstin J.H. Brathwaite - June 4, 2020 How do you ‘mass and dominate the battlespace’ in a U.S. city?
Is Trump hurting the military? Elizabeth N. Saunders - June 2, 2020 Using the military as a political prop may have these three consequences.
The price of oil was actually negative last week. What happens next? Stephen Paduano - April 28, 2020 Cheap oil is causing pain from Texas to Nigeria.
So do morals matter in U.S. foreign policy? I asked the expert. Henry Farrell - April 23, 2020 A new book by Joseph S. Nye Jr. suggests that for presidents, good intentions are not enough.
Iraq is trying yet again to form a government. Why is it so hard? Renad Mansour - April 15, 2020 Mustafa al-Kadhimi has emerged as the compromise prime minister designate
Syria’s civil war will make fighting coronavirus particularly difficult Jesse Marks - April 2, 2020 Many Syrians won’t be able to take preventive measures — or access health care
Why China and the U.S. can’t cooperate to fight coronavirus Ali Wyne - March 26, 2020 These new rifts have begun to emerge
A coronavirus recession would hurt all kinds of Republican candidates — not just Trump Justin de Benedictis-Kessner and Chris Warshaw - March 16, 2020 We looked at how wages influenced votes over the past 50 years
With two American soldiers dead in Iraq, how will the U.S. respond? Ramzy Mardini and Asfandyar Mir - March 12, 2020 Iran and its Shiite militias may be trying to provoke the U.S. into attacking.
If the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan, will its military contractors stay? That’s not clear. Deborah Avant - February 28, 2020 Here’s what we know about this invisible army.
What will happen to Iraqi Shiite militias after one key leader’s death? Ranj Alaaldin - February 28, 2020 This won’t help U.S.-Iran tensions
Trump has given quid pro quos a bad rap. Here’s where they actually help. Desha Girod - January 21, 2020 In development funding, donor countries say they expect aid recipients to shape up
Iran shot down a Ukrainian plane. How did Ukraine respond? Orysiya Lutsevych - January 17, 2020 In a tough situation, the government handled most things well.
Trump is still pushing for a new nuclear deal with Iran. How likely is that? Nicholas Miller - January 14, 2020 Let’s examine the key factors for pursuing such a deal.