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The 2008 Democratic Veepstakes, Round 2

- February 21, 2008

Several days ago I posted some very-early-in-the-game projections of the identity of the vice presidential candidate on the 2008 Democratic ticket; click here to see that post. Today, at no extra charge, I’m posting a new set of projections.

In making the earlier projections, I drew on the “pool” of possibilities named in the intrade onliine futures market. The probabilities, projected separately for tickets topped by Clinton and Obama, respectively, were:

.19 .xx Barack Obama
.xx .22 Hillary Clinton
.07 .03 Evan Bayh
.07 .07 Al Gore
.05 .05 Wesley Clark
.03 .03 Bill Richardson
.03 .02 John Edwards
.02 .02 Joe Biden
.05 .06 Tom Vilsack
.08 .09 Jim Webb
.08 .04 Mark Warner
.04 .04 Tom Daschle
.14 .15 Ted Strickland
.04 .05 Bob Kerrey
.10 .10 Sam Nunn
.03 .03 Christopher Dodd

I issued caveats of various types — that the model on which I based the projections leaves plenty of room for error, that such projections are premature this early in the year, and that some of those named as potential running mates seemed pretty far-fetched.

In Sunday’s edition of the Washington Post, Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray presented their take on “who will be on the short list” of vice-presidential possibilities. The model still leaves plenty of room for error and it’s still very early in the year, but Cillizza and Murray’s list gives me something a bit better to work with than the intrade one. So here, using the same base model and the same projection method, but the Cillizza-Murray short lists, is the new set of results.

First, assume that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic standard bearer and that the running mate she selects will be one of the following four. In that case, the projected probability for each is as follows.

.38 Barack Obama
.13 Evan Bayh
.28 Ted Strickland
.21 Tom Vilsack

Now assume that Barack Obama is the nominee. Assuming that the vice presidential candidate will be one of the following five, the projected probability for each is:

.14 Jack Reed
.28 Anthony Zinni
.16 Kathleen Sebelius
.13 Tim Kaine
.28 Jim Webb

Of course, the ultimate short list could end up including none of the above, so it would be prudent to interpret these projections simply as straws in the wind.