A third party could be successful. But probably not this one. Seth Masket - August 3, 2022 To win voters, a party has to stand for something. But what would the Forward Party do in office?
How D.C. could decide the next presidential election Clarence Lusane - July 19, 2022 Washington’s lack of representation reveals several cracks in American democracy
How did 9/11 change South Asian Americans’ identities and politics? Sangay Mishra - September 17, 2021 Being targets of racial and religious hatred unified them behind the Democrats
New Yorkers used ranked-choice voting last month. Did it eliminate spoilers, as promised? Lindsey Cormack and Jack Santucci - July 26, 2021 And how does it work, exactly?
Here’s what Kamala Harris owes to Walter Mondale Aaron Mannes - April 23, 2021 Mondale forged today’s model of a vice president actively involved in policy
Will Breyer retire while Democrats hold the White House and Senate? Here’s what political science tells us. Christine Nemacheck - April 21, 2021 Most federal judges retire for personal, rather than politically strategic, reasons. Supreme Court justices may be different.
Biden’s climate change plan is all about jobs and justice Leigh Raymond - January 27, 2021 States have been using this message for the past 20 years
Four ways Donald Trump is already manipulating the U.S. elections Spencer Piston and Nic Cheeseman - June 15, 2020 Biden said Trump will try to steal the election. That’s already underway.
The Democratic nominee is often settled by Super Tuesday. Don’t hold your breath this year. Caitlin Jewitt - February 4, 2020 Here’s the primary calendar, explained
Would a ‘not guilty’ impeachment verdict help Trump? Martin Wattenberg - October 24, 2019 It didn’t help Bill Clinton
The Obama effect has helped Joe Biden with black voters. Will it last? Michael Tesler - October 7, 2019 With or without the Ukraine issues, Biden needs African American voters to win the Democratic nomination.
Mike Pence has lasted 2 years as Trump’s VP. That may be his main accomplishment. Joel Goldstein - January 18, 2019 [caption id="attachment_82747" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump and Vice President Pence
The latest global climate negotiations just finished. Here’s what happened. Joshua Busby - December 17, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81644" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Al Gore, Climate Reality Project chairman
No one is surprised that Jeff Sessions is out. But is his replacement’s appointment unconstitutional? Andrew Rudalevige - November 10, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80040" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions speaks in
Last week’s IG report about the FBI made a big splash. Here’s what you need to know about inspectors general. Nadia Hilliard - June 18, 2018 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Part of the Department of Justice
Whites have fled the Democratic Party. Here’s how the nation got there. Joshua Zingher - May 22, 2018 [caption id="attachment_41151" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Blue Democratic donkey cookies and red
John Bolton’s appointment reveals this much bigger problem Joshua Shifrinson - March 29, 2018 Last week, when President Trump announced he was replacing H.R.
No, the DNC didn’t ‘rig’ the Democratic primary for Hillary Clinton Boris Heersink - November 5, 2017 In November 2017, Donna Brazile — the interim chair of
Yes, U.S. election integrity could be improved. Here’s why the Pence commission probably won’t do it. German Feierherd and Francisco Cantú - September 18, 2017 In May, President Trump created the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election
Republicans like Pence better than Trump. That’s unprecedented. Martin Wattenberg - May 31, 2017 On a recent episode of “Saturday Night Live,” Colin Jost
Trump’s commission should investigate alien abductions, not voter fraud. There’s as much survey evidence for both Henry Farrell - May 11, 2017 [caption id="attachment_3001" align="aligncenter" width="800"] (Creative Commons/Wikimedia, P199)[/caption] ABC News has
Why presidential candidates (like Trump) campaign as isolationists but (like Trump) govern as hawks Verlan Lewis - April 18, 2017 [caption id="attachment_56963" align="alignleft" width="960"] A missile is fired from the
No, Republican opposition to Trump won’t hurt Democrats David Karol - February 21, 2017 [caption id="attachment_54402" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters of President Trump unfurl a
‘Red’ America is an illusion. Postindustrial towns go for Democrats. Jonathan Rodden - February 14, 2017 [caption id="attachment_45922" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A voter wears an “I voted”
Why Joe Biden was a most unusual — and effective — vice president Joel Goldstein - January 18, 2017 In two unprecedented acts in 48 hours, President Barack Obama confirmed
Will Pence be the most powerful vice president ever? Not so fast. Joel Goldstein - December 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_50892" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Vice President Biden, right, shakes hands
It’s always hard to win as the heir of a popular president. Clinton is in very good company. Donald Zinman - November 30, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49465" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton concedes the presidential
Two of the most prominent arguments for the electoral college are completely wrong George Edwards - November 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49740" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People protest against President-elect Donald Trump
The electoral college badly distorts the vote. And it’s going to get worse. Katy Collin - November 17, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49696" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Protesters demonstrate against President-elect Donald Trump
Trump got more votes from people of color than Romney did. Here’s the data. Karthick Ramakrishnan - November 11, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49295" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters cheer for President-elect Donald Trump
How the conservative media is taking over the Republican Party Matt Grossmann and David A. Hopkins - September 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46059" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Megyn Kelly (right) interviews Donald Trump
The Democrats are surprisingly unified. That should help Hillary Clinton. Sidney Milkis and Boris Heersink - August 3, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44902" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reacts
Do U.S. voters prefer optimistic politicians? Here’s what we found. Yotam Margalit and Neil Malhotra - August 1, 2016 [caption id="attachment_44751" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reacts as
How the vice president became a powerful and influential White House player Joel Goldstein - July 20, 2016 [caption id="attachment_43886" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump points
Will the Cleveland convention help Trump win Ohio? Probably not. Joseph Uscinski and Christopher B. Mann - July 15, 2016 [caption id="attachment_43710" align="aligncenter" width="960"] CLEVELAND, OH - JULY 11: Windows
Would early attack ads actually hurt Donald Trump? John Sides - May 31, 2016 [caption id="attachment_40205" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump models
If Hillary Clinton is running for Obama’s ‘third term,’ she faces these challenges Donald Zinman - April 15, 2016 [caption id="attachment_24542" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (Mike Blake/Reuters)[/caption] So it looks as
Is Hillary losing the women’s vote? Nope. Here’s how the gender gap really works. Barbara Norrander - February 26, 2016 [caption id="attachment_24542" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (Reuters/Mike Blake)[/caption] Is a gender gap
This is what doomed Al Jazeera America William Youmans - January 14, 2016 The announcement that the Al Jazeera Media Network was shutting
Ted Cruz cited this research when he said most violent criminals are Democrats. Now the researchers say he’s wrong. Michael Morse and Marc Meredith - December 2, 2015 [caption id="attachment_33043" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz,
Can Bernie win in 2016? Andrew Gelman - August 17, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27976" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders
Clinton scandals may have defeated one presidential candidate. Could they do it again? Jeremy Pope - March 27, 2015 [caption id="attachment_22987" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Former U.S. secretary of state Hillary
Have the nerds really beaten the campaign pundits? Not yet. John Sides - March 23, 2015 David Leonhardt, the editor of The Upshot, recently took on
A scientific perspective on politics and science Elizabeth Suhay - February 23, 2015 Human activity is causing climate change. Vaccines save lives. Humans
How minor parties help address climate change Salomon Orellana - September 1, 2014 [caption id="attachment_15086" align="alignnone" width="620"] Day laborers struggle to navigate their
Robert Putnam on funding the social sciences Henry Farrell - July 11, 2013 In "Politico":http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/political-science-research-offers-better-democracy-93970.html bq. This week, I was one of 12
If you’re havin’ electoral problems I feel bad for you son, I got 538 problems but partisan bias ain’t one Andrew Gelman - February 1, 2013 As Andrew Thomas, Gary King, Jonathan Katz, and I discussed
So is Partisanship Really in our DNA? Joshua Tucker - February 1, 2013 The following is a guest post from New York University
The big campaign story for the next few days Andrew Gelman - November 3, 2012 Thomas Ferguson writes about the campaign: There’s something chilling that
Do Presidential Debates Really Matter? John Sides - September 10, 2012 In this month's Atlantic Monthly James Fallows has a long
Is Paul Ryan Really the Most Conservative Vice-Presidential Nominee? John Sides - August 13, 2012 This is a guest post from University of California, Berkeley
The Next Four Years of Presidential Fundraising Brendan Doherty - August 2, 2012 With so much focus on President Obama’s record-breaking first-term fundraising
More on Partisan Politics and Economic Perceptions (and Economic Voting) Larry Bartels - July 27, 2012 Andrew questions David Brady's claim that "partisan preferences actually drove
A Foolish Consistency? David Karol - May 17, 2012 Prominent journalist Marc Ambinder is leaving Washington for Los Angeles.
More Hype about Political Independents John Sides - December 8, 2011 Here's a new report by Third Way. They find that
The Electoral Benefits of Lacking Consistency? Erik Voeten - August 30, 2011 Conventional wisdom in political science and elsewhere is that voters
No, You Don’t Have to Win Political Independents to Get Elected John Sides - August 5, 2011 Alan Abramowitz: ...no matter how independents vote in the 2012
Moving from the Debt Ceiling Debate to 2012 John Sides - August 4, 2011 In a series of four posts, I have been trying
Thoughts on Groseclose book on media bias Andrew Gelman - July 29, 2011 Respected political scientist Tim Groseclose just came out with a
On the Rationality or Irrationality of Political Independents John Sides - April 28, 2011 Jon Chait "disagrees":http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/87547/the-irrationality-independent-voters with "my earlier post":https://themonkeycage.org/2011/04/independents_are_not_a_confuse.html on political independents:
Response to Paul Pierson and Jacob Hacker Larry Bartels - December 9, 2010 Inequality is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon. Jacob Hacker and
Foreign Policy and the 2008 Election - January 13, 2009 p. Robert Saldin has written a wonderfully concise piece discussing
The political penumbra of the political science of voting Andrew Gelman - January 3, 2009 A couple of months ago, my article on the probability
Likely Campaign Effects in 2008 John Sides - October 6, 2008 Political scientists routinely emphasize how the "fundamentals" -- the economy,
Russia, Georgia and NATO - August 21, 2008 p. In explaining the roots of Russia’s assault on Georgia,
Lousy Questions and Uninterpretable Answers in Campaign Debates - August 17, 2008 Phil Klinkner’s post (immediately below) about Obama’s and McCain’s responses
The 2008 Democratic Veepstakes, Round 2 - February 21, 2008 Several days ago I posted some very-early-in-the-game projections of the
The Democratic Veepstakes, 2008 Edition - February 7, 2008 There's been a lot of talk lately (click here or
The Odd Delegate Selection Rules - February 3, 2008 As we approach super duper Tuesday, it is increasingly clear
Henry Kissinger, Angelina Jolie, and the International Politics of “Glam” - December 11, 2007 Henry Kissinger, called upon to explain his bizarre emergence as