It’s “here”:http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/predicting-the-midterm-elections-a-freakonomics-quorum/, featuring political scientists Seth Masket, Bob Erikson, and Alan Abramowitz. Perhaps most penetrating is this insight from Justin Wolfers, who gleefully predicts a Democratic tsunami next week:
bq. And if I’m wrong? We both know there won’t be any real consequences. I’ll be sure to sell some clever story. You know, there was weather on election day (hot or cold, wet or dry — it all works!) and this messed with turnout. Or perhaps, This Time Was Different, and my excellent forecast was knocked off course by our first black president, by rising cellphone penetration or a candidate who may not be a witch. I’ll remind you how I nailed previous elections. (Follow the links, you’ll see I’m doing it already!) I’ll bluster and use long words like sociotropic, or perhaps heteroskedastic. And I’ll remind you that my first name is Professor, and I went to a prestigious school. More to the point, if I’m wrong, I’m sure we’ll all have forgotten by the time the 2012 election rolls around. Shhhh… I won’t tell if you won’t.
bq. So yes, my forecast is more about the marketplace for punditry than it is about this election.