Big-name Democrats are campaigning in Virginia’s race for governor. Does that help candidates?
They won’t change minds. But Obama, Abrams and Bottoms are likely to help get more Black voters to cast ballots.
Many Americans think that climate-change deniers ‘get what they deserve’ when disasters strike
[caption id="attachment_83005" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Firefighter Jose Corona sprays water as
How worried are you about an impending trade war? That might depend on what your fellow party members think.
[caption id="attachment_75577" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (MaryLB/iStock)[/caption] In late September 2015, then-candidate
Five key lessons from Donald Trump’s surprising victory
[caption id="attachment_49232" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives
Yes, the party in power tends to lose votes over time. But how often?
[caption id="attachment_47303" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Rutherford B. Hayes[/caption] Evidence shows that
These 2 trends are what produced such a negative Republican National Convention
The Republican National Convention in July 2016 received mostly negative
Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls may be larger than it seems. Here’s why.
[caption id="attachment_17379" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Harry Cabluck/AP)[/caption] In 2012, national polls
Do most Americans dislike Clinton and Trump? No, not at all.
[caption id="attachment_41764" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump (Getty
Every latest shift in the polls is news. But it shouldn’t be.
[caption id="attachment_39837" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses
2016 should be winnable for Republicans. But can they win with Trump?
[caption id="attachment_39147" align="aligncenter" width="4679"] Donald Trump speaks during a rally
Voters aren’t talking to the other party’s politicians. Here’s why that matters.
[caption id="attachment_35472" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] If the other side is evil
Could Obama’s liberalism hurt Hillary Clinton in 2016?
[caption id="attachment_23621" align="alignnone" width="620" class="center"] In this Sept. 12, 2012
Could Obama's liberalism hurt Hillary Clinton in 2016?
[caption id="attachment_23621" align="alignnone" width="620" class="center"] In this Sept. 12, 2012
Everything you need to know about our polarized politics (in the palm of your hand)
[caption id="attachment_22391" align="aligncenter" width="2448"] (Photo by John Sides)[/caption] In Jonathan
Could Ohio's redistricting reform make its elections more competitive?
[caption id="attachment_19452" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Ohio Rep. Matt Huffman, right, at
Could Ohio’s redistricting reform make its elections more competitive?
[caption id="attachment_19452" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Ohio Rep. Matt Huffman, right, at
Newest midterm forecasts are bullish for the GOP
There’s no more accurate way to predict the day’s weather
A purple, or even blue, Georgia? Not yet.
[caption id="attachment_13689" align="aligncenter" width="1391"] The Georgia state flag, jonathanturley.org[/caption] Nonwhites
Will Obama drag down the Democratic ticket in 2016?
[caption id="attachment_11920" align="aligncenter" width="620"] (Win McNamee/Getty Images)[/caption] A reporter inquires:
Why the Senate forecasting models differ
"There's not a data journalism bubble (IMO) but there's quite possibly
Are voters in an anti-incumbent mood? Don’t count on it.
This is a guest post by political scientist Eric McGhee,
Are voters in an anti-incumbent mood? Don't count on it.
This is a guest post by political scientist Eric McGhee,
Americans may be divided on abortion, but it won’t matter for the midterms
[caption id="attachment_5727" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Anti-abortion protesters attend the March
Americans may be divided on abortion, but it won't matter for the midterms
This is a guest post by Emory University political scientist
How politically moderate are Americans? Less than it seems.
Keith T. Poole is the Philip H. Alston Jr. Distinguished
Americans aren't polarized, just better sorted
Morris P. Fiorina is the Wendt Family Professor of Political
How race and religion have polarized American voters
Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of
There is no wave coming in the 2014 election
[caption id="attachment_3720" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Susan Walsh/AP)[/caption] Prognostications about the
More on “Missing White Voters”
bq. Beyond the fact that the 2012 dropouts do not
The Republicans and Immigration Reform Redux
Now, perhaps there are unforeseen events that will permanently help
What If the Obama Campaign Didn’t Win Him the Election?
In the wake of the 2012 election, it's become commonplace
Potpourri
* Londoners appear to need some inspiration from Olympic athletes.
Potpourri
* Latest election forecast by Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
Potpourri: 100% Political Scientist Edition
* Seth Masket: "Want a reason to celebrate this Independence
Reconciling different claims about working-class voters
After our discussions of psychologist Jonathan Haidt's opinions about working-class
“The Party of the American Working Man and Woman”
Jonathan Haidt writes that “the Republicans are increasingly becoming the party
Cranky Reader Dislikes The Washington Post Election Predictor
Cranky Reader: Sides, you are not only a moron, but
More on the Big Sort: Bill Bishop Responds to Abrams and Fiorina
This is a response by Bill Bishop, author of The
Getting Gas Prices Right
I just wanted to highlight this New York Times article
Congressional Republicans and the 2012 Election
A journalist writes: bq. I'm tentatively writing a profile of
We Really Don’t Have Anti-Incumbent Elections
A few weeks ago, I was dubious about 2012 as
Underemphasized Points about the Economy and Elections
The latest rounds of "nerdfight" -- Seth Masket vs. Sean
On Obama’s Secret Weapon
Michael Tomasky's piece deserves a few responses. He begins with
Media Bias, Political Science, and the Tea Party
Washington Times, Sept. 4: bq. Academics Dub Tea Partyers Devout,
No, You Don’t Have to Win Political Independents to Get Elected
Alan Abramowitz: ...no matter how independents vote in the 2012
People Don’t Like Congress, and That’s Bad for Republicans
The Gallup data above won't take anyone by surprise. People
Political Scientists Are Colonizing The Onion
bq. "If efforts to destroy the asteroid are successfully overturned,
More evidence of growing nationalization of congressional elections
The other day I posted some evidence that, however things
Why don’t low-income whites love the Democrats?
_Unequal Democracy_ is one of the best books on American
Freakonomics Forecasting Roundtable
It's "here":http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/predicting-the-midterm-elections-a-freakonomics-quorum/, featuring political scientists Seth Masket, Bob Erikson, and
Political Science Forecasts for the 2010 Midterm Elections
At the APSA meeting, there was the traditional election forecasting
On Writing about the Economy and Elections
David Paul Kuhn of Real Clear Politics has a piece
Will the Oil Spill Kick Obama’s Ass?
I use the phrase because, apparently, Obama will be talking
What Happens When Congress Fails to Do Its Job?
That it is a title of a Newsweek essay by
Another Early Midterm Forecast: GOP to Gain 37 Seats
The forecast is Alan Abramowitz's, discussed here. A couple of
A Bit More on Independents
For those who haven't tired of this subject, Mark Blumenthal
Punishing Your Own Representative: What to Make of New CNN Poll?
In a "post last week":https://themonkeycage.org/2010/02/incumbents_and_economic_voting.html, I raised the question of
Does It Matter If Everyone Hates Congress?
This is apropos of Josh's post below. The New York
What We Don’t Know About Polarization
Last week, I linked to my comments at the TPM
Alan Abramowitz on politicians and ideological conformity
In response to my note on the limited ideological constraints
A Few Last Bits on Tuesday’s Election
Greg Marx had two nice posts at the Columbia Journalism
Failure to (Turd) Blossom, Leading to a Digression on Interests and Values
"Failure to Blossom" is the title of Ronald Brownstein's excellent
Don’t blame gerrymandering: the update
This 2006 article by Alan Abramowitz, Brad Alexander, and Matthew
Polarization in the 2005-2006 Congress Highest in 120 Years
While political scientists rarely agree on anything, there seems to
Are Primary Electorates Unrepresentative?
Yesterday's New York Times featured this piece about how the
Polls Find Voters Weighing Issues vs. Electability
When voters in a primary (or caucus) cast their votes,