Do betting markets outperform election polls? Hardly.
[caption id="attachment_44984" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] President Harry S. Truman holds up
In Scotland, the polls got it wrong. Or did they?
[caption id="attachment_15885" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Copies of British daily newspapers, including
On the ethics of Facebook experiments
[caption id="attachment_12164" align="aligncenter" width="600"] This January 30, 2014 file photo
Playing high school sports makes women have more children? Not so fast.
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] A softball game at Blair
The New York Times is creating a new data-driven journalism venture
[caption id="attachment_3300" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty)[/caption] The New Republic
Why It Matters that Obama’s Approval Rating Is Falling
Despite ridiculous hype about a recent CNN poll that showed
Thomas Hobbes would be spinning in his grave
A few years ago I watched a bunch of Speed
The Veep Debate, and What Commentators Don’t Understand about Who Watched It
All throughout last night's debate, I read a zillion tweets
A Non-random Walk Down Campaign Street
Political campaigns are commonly understood as random walks, during which,
Potpourri
* Summary of social science on gun violence. Via Justin
The Critics of Social Science Are Sometimes the Best Defenders of Social Science
Washington Post columnist Charles Lane's opposition to National Science Foundation
Sunny Days Make For Tea Party Success
bq. Can protests cause political change, or are they merely
Polisci Valentines Contest!
A Monkey Cage reader has suggested some reply to the
Potpourri
* First-mover advantage and the President's budget. * Big Data.
A “Mere” Political Scientist? Or Merely HOT?
From today's New York Times profile of economists Betsey Stevenson
Why Is It So Hard to Count Votes in the Iowa Caucus?
So apparently Santorum did win the Iowa caucus. Maybe. Eight
Potpourri
* Top earthquake tweets * How to cause an earthquake
Potpourri
* Running an Academic Blog Can Make You Feel Like
Freakonomics Forecasting Roundtable
It's "here":http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/predicting-the-midterm-elections-a-freakonomics-quorum/, featuring political scientists Seth Masket, Bob Erikson, and
The polls are not a random walk
Justin Wolfers and Nate Silver.
Responses to Fabio Rojas
A little while back, "Fabio Rojas threw down the gauntlet":http://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2010/03/04/political-science-exports/.
Problems in Census Data
bq. We discover and document errors in public use microdata
Wolfers vs. Erikson on the Election
I've previously posted Bob Erikson and Chris Wlezien's paper arguing
Football freakonomics
This morning's Wall Street Journal contains a round-up of recent
Polls vs. Prediction Markets
Andrew Gelman responds to Justin Wolfers' piece in the Wall