We all know, following the research of Rosenstone, Hibbs, Erikson, and others, that that economic conditions can predict vote swings at state and national levels.
But, what about the reverse? Could we deduce historical economic conditions from election returns? Instead of forecasting elections from the economy, we could hindcast the economy from elections.
Would this make sense as a way of studying local and regional economic conditions in the U.S. in the 1800s, for example? I could imagine that election data are a lot easier to come by than economic data.
P.S. Don’t forget that there have been big changes over time in our impressions of the ability of presidents to intervene successfully in the economy.