A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast
Here on the Monkey Cage, Kenneth Bunker and Stefan Bauchowitz
A Non-random Walk Down Campaign Street
Political campaigns are commonly understood as random walks, during which,
Is Mitt Romney a Bad Candidate?
The only way to answer the question in the title
Forecasting House Elections: Democrats Gain 1 Additional Seat
As John suggested in his post this morning, he and
2012 isn’t 2008, but an Estimate Two Months Out isn’t an Election Either
Simon Jackman posted the following graphic on his blog, which
Comparison of forecasts for the 2010 congressional elections
Yesterday at the sister blog, Nate Silver forecast that the
Good timing: The role of quantitative political science and political reporting in shaping perceptions
As you may have heard, the Democratic Congress just passed
The Democrats are gonna get hammered
A few months ago, I wrote that, based on the
Forecasting in reverse: Can we use election returns to learn about economic history?
We all know, following the research of Rosenstone, Hibbs, Erikson,
Special issue on election forecasting from the journal PS: Political Science and Politics
The article by Erikson and Wlezien is probably the first