A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast
Here on the Monkey Cage, Kenneth Bunker and Stefan Bauchowitz
A Non-random Walk Down Campaign Street
Political campaigns are commonly understood as random walks, during which,
Forecasting House Elections: Democrats Gain 1 Additional Seat
As John suggested in his post this morning, he and
Comparison of forecasts for the 2010 congressional elections
Yesterday at the sister blog, Nate Silver forecast that the
Forecasting in reverse: Can we use election returns to learn about economic history?
We all know, following the research of Rosenstone, Hibbs, Erikson,
Special issue on election forecasting from the journal PS: Political Science and Politics
The article by Erikson and Wlezien is probably the first