How much trouble is Joe Biden really in? John Sides and Michael Tesler - March 19, 2024 There’s precedent for an election-year boost – but it’s not guaranteed.
Good to Know: The Federal Reserve and U.S. monetary policy Alexandra Guisinger - January 15, 2024 The Fed is getting some good press. So what exactly is the Fed, and what does it do?
Good to Know: The U.S. commitment to Taiwan Jeremy Wallace - January 10, 2024 U.S.-Taiwan relations are complicated. Here's an explainer.
Why Congress’s 2023 was so dismal Sarah Binder - December 26, 2023 And be ready for a repeat in 2024.
How Republicans made a U-turn on impeachment Andrew Rudalevige - December 16, 2023 2023 isn’t 2019, it turns out.
Biden will visit Israel during a war. That’s unprecedented. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 17, 2023 The humanitarian crisis and escalation fears heighten uncertainty.
The remarkable rise of isolationist Republicans Michael Tesler - September 20, 2023 Trump’s rise has turned back the clock to the 1930s.
Biden’s broad marijuana pardon has precedents Andrew Rudalevige - October 7, 2022 In some ways, it looks like Jimmy Carter’s amnesty for Vietnam War draft dodgers
We know free school lunches help. What else would end hunger? Clare Brock - September 27, 2022 The White House is looking for solutions with this week’s Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health
Will the Democrats’ big bill get past the hurdles of reconciliation? Sarah Binder - August 6, 2022 From the ‘Byrd bath’ to the ‘vote-a-rama,’ here’s what’s happening with the Inflation Reduction Act
Why is the Jan. 6 committee holding televised hearings? Sarah Binder - June 13, 2022 The committee wants to get Americans off the sidelines and into the fight to hold Trump accountable for the unprecedented attack on the Capitol
Jack Dorsey is wrong. The dollar is still a global reserve currency. Mark Copelovitch - June 1, 2022 There are reasons the dollar is still king
Republican senators used racially coded language to question Ketanji Brown Jackson. There’s history to that. Sharon Wright Austin - March 28, 2022 Compare that to the language senators used to grill Constance Baker Motley in 1966, slowing down her confirmation as the first Black female federal judge.
Germany didn’t used to spend much on its military. Putin changed that. Marina E. Henke - March 6, 2022 Many German politicians were convinced that the Russian president was bluffing about Ukraine
Perhaps Putin thinks acting crazy is a good strategy. My research says otherwise. Roseanne W. McManus - March 6, 2022 ‘Madness’ isn’t a common leadership trait
The Ukraine crisis is now a nuclear crisis Caitlin Talmadge - February 27, 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin just put his nuclear forces on alert
Biden said he won’t make an ‘ideological’ Supreme Court pick. Republicans do exactly that. Amanda Hollis-Brusky - February 14, 2022 Liberals want to counter the influence of the Federalist Society. The Democratic Party may be their biggest obstacle.
Virginia’s new lieutenant governor is a Black Republican woman. That identity is more common than you may think. Andra Gillespie - January 21, 2022 Winsome Sears represents a persistent minority viewpoint in Black politics.
Inflation may be a problem. But it’s also a political opportunity. Elizabeth Popp Berman - January 20, 2022 Since economists don’t agree on what’s causing it, someone will likely use it to sell other policies.
Big government vastly expanded presidential power. Republicans use it to sabotage the administrative state. William Howell and Terry Moe - October 31, 2021 The White House in October. Editor’s note: This article is
Why the Pentagon can’t fully account for all its assets — in Afghanistan or anywhere else Christian I. Bale - September 22, 2021 Incomplete audits make wasteful spending more likely
Gen. Milley reportedly tried to work around Trump on nukes. Did he have authority to do this? Carrie Lee - September 15, 2021 No. And here’s why.
What 9/11 taught us about the president, Congress and who makes war and peace Douglas Kriner - September 11, 2021 It’s more complicated than it appears.
20 years later, America’s ‘War on Terror’ language has gone global Somdeep Sen and John Collins - September 9, 2021 Right-wing governments and movements often use these words to justify authoritarian and racist policies.
This is how Biden eked out his 2020 victory David Brady and Brett Parker - February 12, 2021 In a divided country, elections are won on the margin
What the heck is budget reconciliation? Sarah Binder / Managing Editor - February 3, 2021 Your guide to another arcane congressional fiscal tool.
Biden can’t instruct the new U.S. attorneys on how to prosecute the Capitol rioters. But they’ll listen to his signals. Michael J. Nelson, Ian Ostrander, Ethan D. Boldt, and Christina L. Boyd - January 31, 2021 That’s been true at least since the 1990s, our research finds
Biden just rescinded the ‘global gag rule.’ The next Republican president will restore it. Jennifer D. Sciubba - January 29, 2021 Policies about family planning once had bipartisan support. Here’s what changed.
Members of Congress want a commission to investigate the Capitol invasion. Here’s when these work. Jordan Tama / Managing Editor - January 19, 2021 Some commissions kick the can down the road. Some prompt real change.
There was no legal way to stop Trump from ordering a nuclear strike if he wanted to, expert says Elizabeth N. Saunders - January 8, 2021 New revelations about Gen. Mark A. Milley’s calls to his Chinese counterpart remind of us of that fact
Trump radicalized the Republican Party. If it doesn’t change course, many supporters will flee. Ken Kollman and John Jackson - October 28, 2020 Our research finds when a party shifts ideology too far, large demographic blocs shift loyalties to the other party
The Trump campaign claims it wants a foreign policy debate. That’s not what we’re likely to get. Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 21, 2020 But foreign policy will definitely be on the ballot on Nov. 3
How a possible Biden victory is shaping international politics, even before Nov. 3 Scott Wolford and Cathy X. Wu - October 21, 2020 Americans aren’t the only ones watching the 2020 presidential election closely
If a president becomes incapacitated, here’s what the Constitution says Andrew Rudalevige - October 3, 2020 The 25th Amendment answers at least some of the big questions.
Trump keeps invoking the ‘American Dream.’ Americans are pessimistic that they can achieve it. Jennifer Wolak and David A. M. Peterson - September 20, 2020 That makes them less likely to respond to rhetoric about it.
How a stronger presidency could lead to more effective government William Howell and Terry Moe - September 13, 2020 And more effective government could help reduce populism
History tells us there are four key threats to U.S. democracy Henry Farrell - August 13, 2020 American democracy is in crisis, but not for the first time
At the heart of Trump’s Taliban bounty crisis are questions about the President’s Daily Brief Michael Poznansky - July 2, 2020 Presidential decision making relies on good intel
The protests started out looking like 1968. They turned into 1964. Omar Wasow - June 11, 2020 As in the mid-1960s, peaceful protests drove news coverage and woke up the public
The George Floyd protests will not help Trump win reelection. Here’s why. Michael Tesler - June 2, 2020 Let’s check the polling.
This is the problem with calling it a ‘war’ against coronavirus Jessica Blankshain and Danielle Lupton - April 20, 2020 War changes the rules — for better or worse
Why Trump and Fauci need each other Sanford C. Gordon and Dimitri Landa - March 25, 2020 They give one another more credibility on the coronavirus pandemic, reaching a broader audience.
Yes, Biden is more likely than Sanders to beat Trump. Here’s how we know. Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke - March 23, 2020 We examined presidential election data over 100 years.
Apparently, Trump ignored early coronavirus warnings. That has consequences. Michael Poznansky - March 22, 2020 Other presidents distrusted their intelligence teams — often with dire results.
Trump wants a deal with the Taliban. Will it hurt him at home? Michaela Mattes and Jessica Weeks - February 28, 2020 Our research looks at how Americans view hawks and doves.
Trump named a loyalist to head intelligence. Will Richard Grenell eliminate dissent? Brent Durbin - February 24, 2020 The incoming director of national intelligence will have a limited tenure
Trump and Modi will meet in India this week. Here’s what to expect. Christopher Clary - February 23, 2020 India is a key strategic partner — but trade, Kashmir and Pakistan complicate the relationship
Trump tweets that he’s America’s chief law enforcement officer. That’s only true if others let him be. William D. Adler - February 19, 2020 Impartial law enforcement is critical for democracy.
Whether it’s from the Oscars or ‘The Apprentice,’ celebrity candidates get a boost. Here’s how we know. Lauren Wright - February 13, 2020 It’s more than putting a face to the name
Romney’s not really alone. Republican senators were ready to oust Nixon in 1974. von Hippel - February 11, 2020 That’s why Nixon resigned first.
What will Trump’s acquittal mean for U.S. democracy? Here are 4 big takeaways. Tyler P. Yates - February 3, 2020 Watch closely what Republican senators say about the defense’s arguments.
What to expect when you’re expecting a Senate impeachment trial Steven Smith - January 10, 2020 Yes, there are some rules. The Senate can change them.
Incumbent presidents usually get more popular when they run for reelection. Will Trump? John Sides - January 6, 2020 Trump’s best-case scenario could be what happened to Barack Obama.
Obama once said that if women ran the world, there’d be less war Abigail S. Post - December 22, 2019 Here’s what the research says.
What Bill Barr doesn’t understand about the office of attorney general Cornell W. Clayton - December 17, 2019 The U.S. attorney general’s office started in the judicial branch, not the executive — and has never been entirely under presidential control
The ‘skinny’ articles of impeachment mean more than you may think Sarah Burns - December 13, 2019 Here’s how they’re like — and unlike — past impeachment charges.
Paul Volcker won his fight on inflation. The battle to regulate big finance is ongoing. Jonathan Kirshner - December 12, 2019 Fed Chairman Paul Volcker testifies in 1981. (Photo by James
Would Republican senators ever vote to convict Trump? Here’s what we can learn from the rest of the world. David Samuels - November 26, 2019 Sure, parties dump their prime ministers — but they rarely throw out ‘their’ presidents. Here’s why.
To remove Trump from office, Democrats need these GOP senators. Christian Grose and Anthony Bertelli - November 25, 2019 Here’s what we can learn from Clinton’s impeachment trial.
Trump said the Navy can’t take away Eddie Gallagher’s SEAL qualification. That could be a problem. Doyle Hodges - November 22, 2019 The U.S. military is supposed to set its own high professional standards.
Would Republicans pay a price if they vote to impeach the president? Here’s what we know from 1974. Robert S. Erikson and Gerald Wright - November 19, 2019 Nixon loyalists paid the price — not Republicans who voted to impeach.
Barr blames lawyers for undermining the president’s power. Actually, they helped build it. Amanda Hollis-Brusky - November 18, 2019 Federalist Society lawyers are the architects in chief of the “imperial presidency.”
Trump’s pardon of two former Army officers has sparked new controversy. Here’s why. Michael Robinson - November 17, 2019 Some ex-military are applauding Trump’s decision. Some are condemning it.
Pelosi will get more out of today’s impeachment inquiry vote than Republicans. Here’s why. Sarah Binder - October 30, 2019 She’s undercutting the GOP’s complaints about process — and daring them to defend the president on substantive grounds.
Republicans say that Trump’s quid pro quos were normal. Here’s why they’re wrong. James Goldgeier and Elizabeth N. Saunders - October 29, 2019 The body of existing testimony shows how Trump has crossed the line
Would a ‘not guilty’ impeachment verdict help Trump? Martin Wattenberg - October 24, 2019 It didn’t help Bill Clinton
No, Trump probably won’t start a war to distract from his difficulties. Here’s what he’ll do instead. Valerie Morkevičius and Danielle Lupton - October 16, 2019 Expect an even more chaotic foreign policy
No, the Trump impeachment inquiry is not a coup Joseph Wright, John Chin, and David Carter - October 15, 2019 There were four coups attempted in 2019. Trump supported one of them.
Is the impeachment inquiry really ‘unconstitutional’? Andrew Rudalevige - October 10, 2019 There’s a long history of White House lawyers saying what the boss wants to hear.
Pelosi finally called for an impeachment inquiry. Here’s what’s happening behind the scenes. Sarah Binder - September 26, 2019 Four insights into why now — and what’s next
What to expect when you are expecting a Trump ‘transcript’ James Goldgeier - September 25, 2019 The record of Trump’s call with Ukraine’s president won’t tell the whole story. Not even close.
When Americans get good government service, they mistakenly give the credit to the private sector. Nikita Lalwani - August 29, 2019 U.S. citizens’ distrust of government isn’t always rational.
Why is Trump attacking the Federal Reserve? We answer your questions. Mark Spindel and Sarah Binder - August 27, 2019 And what will the Fed do next?
Trump has been awarding a lot of Presidential Medals of Freedom. Here’s what that says about his values. Kyle Kopko, Fletcher McClellan, and Christopher J. Devine - June 20, 2019 Arthur Laffer yesterday, Tiger Woods last month — Trump is awarding Medals of Freedom much in the way he’s used his power to pardon.
Here’s why Pelosi won’t allow the House to pursue impeachment — at least not yet Sarah Binder - June 14, 2019 But the speaker is giving investigating committees more freedom — and that matters.
There’s a problem with Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s approach to revitalizing South Bend. Josh Pacewicz - May 12, 2019 Struggling cities and towns are in a costly, zero-sum competition for jobs.
Can Trump still install a loyalist at the Fed? Mark Spindel and Sarah Binder - May 6, 2019 Maybe. But he has to choose them a little more carefully.
How the Mueller report reminds us of Watergate Andrew Rudalevige - April 19, 2019 Four curious echoes of the iconic White House abuse of power.
The Senate voted to block Trump’s national emergency declaration. Now what? Sarah Binder - March 15, 2019 Here are 3 takeaways from Congress’s highly unusual rebuke.
Huawei is better positioned to spy on us than we think Jack Hasler - March 12, 2019 The United States shares the blame.
Does Trump really have ‘absolute power’ to declare a national emergency? Let’s examine the statute. Andrew Rudalevige - February 15, 2019 Editors' note: We are reposting this analysis, first published on January
The point of the Afghanistan ‘peace deal’ is simple: The U.S. wants to get out James Lebovic - January 31, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83301" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former insurgents surrender their weapons during
People used to joke about ‘Democrats in disarray.’ They’re not joking now. Henry Farrell - January 30, 2019 The comedian Will Rogers famously joked: “I am not a
Compared with recent presidents, Trump does not like to travel — except when he’s campaigning Kathryn Tenpas and James McCann - January 25, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83062" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump exits Marine One as
This is why the federal government has a hard time regulating prescription opioids Herschel Nachlis - January 13, 2019 [caption id="attachment_82553" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Bottles of the prescription painkiller OxyContin,
Big elections are coming in 2019. Here’s how they could reshape foreign policy. Scott Wolford - January 3, 2019 [caption id="attachment_80963" align="aligncenter" width="960"] At the Group of 20 summit
40 years ago, Deng Xiaoping changed China — and the world Abraham Denmark - December 19, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81752" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People pose in front of a
Will a new White House chief of staff matter? Not unless Trump wants change. Andrew Rudalevige - December 12, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81464" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Nick Ayers, left, chief of staff
Will the violent ‘yellow vest’ protests backfire? Not necessarily, our research finds. Ryan Enos, Melissa Sands, and Aaron Kaufman - December 11, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81407" align="alignleft" width="960"] Riot police water canons sprayed at yellow
What can House Democrats accomplish with their new oversight and investigative powers? Eric Schickler and Douglas Kriner - November 28, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80751" align="aligncenter" width="960"] House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks
Saudi Arabia hinted at a U.S. oil embargo. It’s not 1973. Jeff Colgan - October 16, 2018 [caption id="attachment_78961" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Saudi Arabia's King Salman, right, meets
Trying to understand how Jeff Flake is leaning? We analyzed his Twitter feed — and were surprised. Joshua Tucker, Jonathan Nagler, Jan Zilinsky, and Gregory Eady - October 5, 2018 [caption id="attachment_78576" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), right, and
No, the U.S. didn’t just threaten a preventive nuclear strike. 5 things you need to know. James Cameron - October 4, 2018 During an Oct. 2, 2018, press briefing, the U.S. permanent
Is Obama breaking norms as a former President? Not really. Nicholas Jacobs - September 25, 2018 As former president Barack Obama has begun campaigning for Democrats
What’s most shocking about the ‘resistance’ op-ed? How personal the attacks are. Andrew Rudalevige - September 8, 2018 It turns out that studying the workings of the presidency
The DNC voted to strip superdelegates of their powers. Will it matter for 2020? Boris Heersink - September 4, 2018 [caption id="attachment_77305" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A model of the White House
Trump revoked John Brennan’s security clearance. The long-term consequences may be dire. Michael Poznansky - August 20, 2018 When President Trump revoked former CIA director John Brennan’s security
Hundreds of scholars have signed a statement defending the international institutions that Trump has attacked Peter Gourevitch and David Lake - August 14, 2018 [caption id="attachment_76696" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump poses with Germany's Chancellor
This is why the Senate should care about Brett Kavanaugh’s time as Bush’s staff secretary Andrew Rudalevige - August 4, 2018 [caption id="attachment_76325" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), left, and