How much trouble is Joe Biden really in? John Sides and Michael Tesler - March 19, 2024 There’s precedent for an election-year boost – but it’s not guaranteed.
Trump’s GOP rivals are letting him off easy – again John Sides - December 12, 2023 Just as in the 2016 primary, they’d rather attack each other than Trump.
Partisanship is not just negative partisanship John Sides - December 4, 2023 Hatred for the other party isn’t as prevalent or powerful as you may think.
The myth of Mitt Romney’s 47% comment won’t die John Sides - November 27, 2023 No, this gaffe didn’t cost Romney the election.
Racially divisive parties have more voters now, but voters aren’t becoming more racist. What explains this? Sheri Berman - December 1, 2019 Populists thrive when the mainstream left and right focus on identity politics.
The Obama effect has helped Joe Biden with black voters. Will it last? Michael Tesler - October 7, 2019 With or without the Ukraine issues, Biden needs African American voters to win the Democratic nomination.
This inflammatory ad reveals why Republican women of color have a hard time getting elected Catherine Wineinger - October 4, 2019 What we can learn from how former lawmaker Mia Love upheld the GOP’s racial narratives — until she didn’t.
These were our top 10 most popular posts of 2018 E.J. Graff - December 31, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81973" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump speaks in Fargo, N.D.
Democrats and Republicans used to agree about the n-word. Now they don’t. Michael Tesler / Managing Editor - August 30, 2018 Editors’ note: In this archival piece, first published on August
Donald Trump is a symbol of white identity politics in Europe, too Michael Tesler and John Sides - June 21, 2018 [caption id="attachment_74796" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A woman in London holds a
In the U.S., who votes and why? Here’s how the Constitution shapes the answers. Andrew Rudalevige - August 25, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59973" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A Fairfax County Democratic Committee sign
Five key lessons from Donald Trump’s surprising victory John Sides - November 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49232" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives
Donald Trump’s campaign is still on track to raise amazingly little money John Sides - September 12, 2016 [caption id="attachment_45706" align="aligncenter" width="1795"] Donald Trump's campaign headquarters in August
How many votes will Trump give up by not running a professional campaign? A lot. John Sides - August 25, 2016 [caption id="attachment_45706" align="aligncenter" width="1795"] Donald Trump's campaign headquarters. (Alison Elkin/Bloomberg
Never forget: The 2016 presidential election is supposed to be one that Republicans can win John Sides - August 23, 2016 Donald Trump's poll numbers have slumped over the past three
Everything you need to know about how political conventions affect the horse race John Sides - July 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_43976" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Workers place a sign as they
A deep dive into the news media’s role in the rise of Donald J. Trump Kalev Leetaru and John Sides - June 24, 2016 [caption id="attachment_42412" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump with Fox News anchor
In Hillary Clinton’s run, the ‘woman card’ works in surprising ways. Here’s how. Kelly Dittmar - June 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41931" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets
Would early attack ads actually hurt Donald Trump? John Sides - May 31, 2016 [caption id="attachment_40205" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump models
A Trump campaign will only increase the Democrats’ advantage in data and analytics Daniel Kreiss - May 20, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39147" align="aligncenter" width="4679"] Donald Trump speaks during a rally
The striking decline in women’s support for Donald Trump (in 2 graphs) Michael Tesler - May 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_40257" align="aligncenter" width="630"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. (Andrew
2016 should be winnable for Republicans. But can they win with Trump? John Sides - May 4, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39147" align="aligncenter" width="4679"] Donald Trump speaks during a rally
Voter anger is mostly about party, not social class John Sides - April 12, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35472" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg News)[/caption] The many stories
Barbara Sinclair left a lasting legacy in political science Gregory Koger - March 17, 2016 Last week, eminent political scientist Barbara Sinclair passed away. She
A newly released poll shows the populist power of Donald Trump Michael Tesler - January 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_33811" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks
Will foreign policy be a major issue in the 2016 election? Here’s what we know. Elizabeth N. Saunders - January 26, 2016 At the last two Republican debates, the looming center-stage presence
How Sarah Palin could help Donald Trump with Ted Cruz supporters Michael Tesler and John Sides - January 24, 2016 [caption id="attachment_34723" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, right,
Can we stop blaming the media for Donald Trump? Nope. Not at all. John Sides - September 16, 2015 Yesterday, my Post colleague Chris Cillizza asked, "Can we please
Why is Ben Carson surging? Once again, it's the media. John Sides - September 3, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29100" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson attends
Why is Ben Carson surging? Once again, it’s the media. John Sides - September 3, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29100" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson attends
Why does Trump remain atop the polls? You can still blame the media. John Sides - August 28, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28400" align="aligncenter" width="2200"] Donald Trump answers a question at
There are only 497 things you need to know about tonight's Republican debate John Sides - August 6, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28230" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Republican debate participants (top row L-R)
There are only 497 things you need to know about tonight’s Republican debate John Sides - August 6, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28230" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Republican debate participants (top row L-R)
The decline of Rand Paul's campaign (in one graph) John Sides - August 4, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28162" align="alignnone" width="620" class="align center"] Republican presidential candidate Sen.
The decline of Rand Paul’s campaign (in one graph) John Sides - August 4, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28162" align="alignnone" width="620" class="align center"] Republican presidential candidate Sen.
Here's one important way Bernie Sanders is like Sarah Palin John Sides - July 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27979" align="aligncenter" width="745"] (Photos by J. Scott Applewhite and Craig Ruttle/Associated Press)[/caption]
Here’s one important way Bernie Sanders is like Sarah Palin John Sides - July 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27979" align="aligncenter" width="745"] (Photos by J. Scott Applewhite and Craig Ruttle/Associated Press)[/caption]
Why is Trump surging? Blame the media. John Sides - July 20, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27591" align="aligncenter" width="908"] U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump
The unsettled, uncertain, undecided Republican presidential primary (in one graph) John Sides - July 8, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27117" align="aligncenter" width="1310"] Graph by John Sides[/caption] In "The
Why the Republicans can't agree on a presidential candidate (and the Democrats have all but settled on theirs) - May 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_25431" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] The symbols of the Democratic, left,
Why the Republicans can’t agree on a presidential candidate (and the Democrats have all but settled on theirs) Wayne Steger - May 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_25431" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] The symbols of the Democratic, left,
The Democratic advantage in digital, data, and analytics isn't going away easily John Sides - May 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_24717" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Engineers and developers work at President
The Democratic advantage in digital, data, and analytics isn’t going away easily Daniel Kreiss - May 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_24717" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Engineers and developers work at President
Clinton scandals may have defeated one presidential candidate. Could they do it again? Jeremy Pope - March 27, 2015 [caption id="attachment_22987" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Former U.S. secretary of state Hillary
When presidents fall, literally Kim Yi Dionne - February 15, 2015 Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe fell earlier this month after losing his
Your 2012 flashback: Did the Bain Capital ads really matter? John Sides - February 11, 2015 [caption id="attachment_2657" align="aligncenter" width="606"] (Jim Young/Reuters)[/caption] The 2016 presidential campaign
'Wealthy plutocrat' isn't Mitt Romney's issue. It's the Republican Party's issue. John Sides - January 19, 2015 [caption id="attachment_20206" align="aligncenter" width="992"] Mitt Romney, a former Republican presidential
‘Wealthy plutocrat’ isn’t Mitt Romney’s issue. It’s the Republican Party’s issue. John Sides - January 19, 2015 [caption id="attachment_20206" align="aligncenter" width="992"] Mitt Romney, a former Republican presidential
Why the 'war on women' failed in 2014 John Sides - November 26, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18518" align="alignleft" width="300"] Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, (D-Colo.),speaks during
Why the ‘war on women’ failed in 2014 - November 26, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18518" align="alignleft" width="300"] Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, (D-Colo.),speaks during
The 2014 midterm election fundamentals (in 4 graphs) John Sides - November 3, 2014 There is a strong consensus among the election forecasting models:
What do political ads really do anyway? Come find out today! John Sides - August 28, 2014 As part of the annual meeting of the American Political
Mythical swing voter update Andrew Gelman - August 21, 2014 [caption id="attachment_12923" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)[/caption] We received
How Joni Ernst's ad about castrating hogs drove the news and her poll numbers John Sides - May 12, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst
How Joni Ernst’s ad about castrating hogs drove the news and her poll numbers John Sides - May 12, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst
Democrats have a young people problem, too John Sides - March 10, 2014 [caption id="attachment_7665" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)[/caption] A new
The surprising parity of the 2012 ground game Dan Hopkins - February 27, 2014 Ryan D. Enos and Anthony Fowler are assistant professors at
The Obama campaign won GOTV gold in the 2012 campaign games John Sides - February 21, 2014 [caption id="attachment_6934" align="aligncenter" width="542" special=""] Obama, flanked by Suzanne Stern,
Data and analytics have changed campaigns. Now what's next? John Sides - January 23, 2014 [caption id="attachment_5647" align="aligncenter" width="592" special=""] (Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press)[/caption] Lynn Vavreck
The Democratic Party's uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016 John Sides - January 19, 2014 [caption id="attachment_5483" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Haraz N. Ghanbari/AP)[/caption] My Post
Is it really so 'laughable' for Republicans to nominate Chris Christie for president? John Sides - January 15, 2014 [caption id="attachment_5314" align="aligncenter" width="694" special=""] (Mel Evans/Associated Press)[/caption] Charlie Cook
Our 7 most popular posts of 2013 John Sides - December 31, 2013 [caption id="attachment_4558" align="aligncenter" width="691" special=""] (Stirling Council/Creative Commons)[/caption] As 2014
The New York Review of Books misses the mark on books about 2012 election John Sides - December 20, 2013 [caption id="attachment_2289" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Jewel Samad/Getty Images[/caption] The political
There is no wave coming in the 2014 election John Sides - December 4, 2013 [caption id="attachment_3720" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Susan Walsh/AP)[/caption] Prognostications about the
Did Romney lose because he wasn't likable enough? Probably not. John Sides - November 5, 2013 [caption id="attachment_2657" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Jim Young/Reuters)[/caption] CNN's Peter Hamby
Obama booting Biden? Here’s why that actually doesn’t matter. John Sides - November 1, 2013 [caption id="attachment_2466" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Haraz N. Ghanbari/AP )[/caption] So,
Hurricane Sandy was huge — but not for the 2012 presidential election John Sides - October 29, 2013 [caption id="attachment_2315" align="aligncenter" width="543" special=""] Steve Helber / AP[/caption] Today's
Reforming primary elections won't make government better John Sides - October 18, 2013 Amy Walter on our political dysfunction and polarization: The way
The electoral ramifications of the shutdown are far from clear John Sides - October 15, 2013 [caption id="attachment_1656" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Win McNamee/Getty Images)[/caption] The latest
Media coverage of the 2012 election was fair and balanced after all John Sides - October 14, 2013 [caption id="attachment_1461" align="aligncenter" width="542" special=""] (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)[/caption] A
The Romney campaign's own polls showed it would lose John Sides - October 8, 2013 [caption id="attachment_1234" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Mitt and Ann Romney after
"The definitive account of what really happened and what really mattered in the campaign." John Sides - October 7, 2013 This week I will be writing some posts about a
Republicans and Democrats are treating the 2012 election like a mandate. They're both wrong. John Sides - September 29, 2013 [caption id="attachment_631" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] A scene from the 1995
Nashville Event featuring The Gamble and Collision 2012 John Sides - September 24, 2013 The Washington Post's Dan Balz, Lynn Vavreck, and I will
The Santorum Challenge to Romney: An Excerpt from The Gamble John Sides - September 21, 2013 Salon has an excerpt from The Gamble, Lynn Vavreck's and
How We Wrote The Gamble John Sides - August 29, 2013 We have a new book on the 2012 presidential election,
Why Chris Christie Didn’t Run in 2012 John Sides - August 19, 2013 In the Los Angeles Times, Washington bureau chief David Lauter
One Irony of Nate Silver’s Leaving the New York Times John Sides - July 23, 2013 Nate Silver's imminent departure from the New York Times to
The Harris-VandeHei Interview Sells Even Politico Short John Sides - June 24, 2013 Following up on David's post, I wanted to offer a
Why It Matters that Obama’s Approval Rating Is Falling John Sides - June 18, 2013 Despite ridiculous hype about a recent CNN poll that showed
Why Ted Cruz Needs to Trust Republicans John Sides - May 23, 2013 The senior senator from Arizona urged this body to trust
Video of the Roundtable on the 2012 Election, featuring Ezra Klein and Nate Silver John Sides - May 21, 2013 <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_sHelkLTJPE?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Here is a video
How Much Did the 2012 Air War and Ground Game Matter? John Sides - May 9, 2013 In this third and final post in our mini-symposium on
Mini-Symposium on Campaign Effects in the 2012 Presidential Election John Sides - May 6, 2013 This week, we're pleased to host a little symposium on
Election Roundtable TODAY, with Ezra Klein and Nate Silver (New Location!) John Sides - April 13, 2013 The roundtable on the 2012 election that I mentioned before
Roundtable on the 2012 Election, Featuring Ezra Klein and Nate Silver John Sides - April 8, 2013 At the upcoming meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association
More on the Republican Re-boot: A Rejoinder John Sides - April 1, 2013 Eric Schickler writes: I wanted to offer a quick reply
How Much Did the 47% Video Matter? Not that Much. John Sides - March 14, 2013 The interview with Scott Prouty, the man who filmed Romney
New E-Chapter of The Gamble Available (It’s Free!) John Sides - January 24, 2013 As regular readers know, Lynn Vavreck and I are writing
Were Obama’s Early Ads Really the Game-changer? John Sides - December 30, 2012 I have a new post at 538 on this question.
The 2012 Election Was Good for Political Science John Sides - November 19, 2012 In late September, I was involved in an email exchange
The Fundamentals Mattered in 2012 John Sides - November 7, 2012 In the first e-chapter of The Gamble, "The Hand You're
Mapping Romney and Obama Field Offices John Sides - November 6, 2012 As has been widely reported, the number of Obama field
How Often Do Voters Turn Off Campaign Ads? About 50% of the Time. John Sides - November 6, 2012 This is a guest post from UCLA Ph.D. student Michael
How I think about undecided voters Andrew Gelman - November 2, 2012 Reading this excellent post by Lynn Vavreck reminded me of
The Most Important Ads of the Campaign Are Only Airing Now John Sides - November 1, 2012 HuffPo's Jason Linkins asks: bq. Dunno if @monkeycageblog takes requests,
A Bit More on How Undecided Voters Might Break John Sides - October 31, 2012 In my earlier post, I modeled the choices of decided
Yes, Undecided Voters Are Partisans and Have Opinions John Sides - October 17, 2012 Several of the questions from last night's debate led commentators
Why Romney’s Debate Win May Be a Loss among Female Voters John Sides - October 8, 2012 This is a guest post from political scientist Corrine McConnaughy.
There Go the Undecided Voters Larry Bartels - September 21, 2012 Lynn Vavreck has an informative piece on the New York