The Respect for Marriage Act won’t fully protect same-sex parents Alison Gash - December 8, 2022 If the Supreme Court overturns Obergefell, officials in some states could again refuse to recognize the parental authority of two moms or two dads
The Supreme Court may end college affirmative action. Then what? Lauren S. Foley - October 27, 2022 Universities have followed similar bans to the letter but tried other ways to admit racially diverse classes – with mixed results
Why resentful rural Americans vote Republican Nicholas Jacobs and Kal Munis - October 20, 2022 Many of these voters think they are underrepresented, under-resourced and overlooked
How Black and Latino people did in this last round of redistricting Michal Migurski, Eric McGhee, and Christopher Warshaw - October 6, 2022 We examined the first redistricting round since the Supreme Court’s Shelby County v. Holder decision ended ‘preclearance,’ comparing it to the last cycle’s districts
In many states with antiabortion laws, majorities favor abortion rights Jake Grumbach and Christopher Warshaw / Managing Editor - June 25, 2022 Will purple states’ laws eventually reflect their voters’ views?
How will the end of Roe affect IVF? Nicole Kalaf-Hughes, Heather Mohamed, and Erin Heidt-Forsythe - June 16, 2022 Our research suggests that Republicans and Democrats want to preserve infertility care – although some laws could have unintended consequences.
What do Manchin and Sinema want? Neilan S. Chaturvedi - January 26, 2022 ‘Moderate’ senators have to satisfy both red and blue voters. But Democrats can still reach them.
150 years ago, Frederick Douglass predicted the United States’ dilemma today Alan Coffee - August 5, 2021 Douglass foresaw three possible paths for an irreconcilably divided U.S. Which will it take this time?
The Emancipation Proclamation did not end slavery. Here’s what did. Clarence Lusane - June 24, 2021 Two states — Delaware and Kentucky — still allowed slavery until the 13th Amendment was ratified, six months after Juneteenth.
The Supreme Court just took a case that could kill Roe v. Wade — or let it die slowly Mary Ziegler - May 18, 2021 Can states ban abortion before ‘viability,’ meaning before the fetus could survive outside the womb?
The Trump years launched the biggest sustained protest movement in U.S. history. It’s not over. Tommy Leung, Nathan Perkins, Jeremy Pressman, Jay Ulfelder, and Erica Chenoweth - February 7, 2021 Here’s what we learned by counting the protests during the past four years
Why so many House Republicans co-signed Texas’s lawsuit to overturn the election Sarah Binder - December 15, 2020 For some, that meant trying to overturn thousands of their own constituents’ votes.
Biden said he’ll work to advance transgender rights. Here are 4 things to know. Kassandra Miller and Audrey Comstock - December 10, 2020 What is the state of transgender rights and protections in the U.S. and internationally?
Why Indian Americans are not becoming Republicans any time soon Sumitra Badrinathan, Milan Vaishnav, and Devesh Kapur - October 14, 2020 Our study examines why they’re sticking with the Democrats
If Trump appoints a third justice, the Supreme Court would be the most conservative it’s been since 1950 Michael A. Bailey - September 21, 2020 And it would be the furthest it’s been ideologically from the other two branches in a long time
Here’s what Pelosi could do if Republicans tried to manipulate the presidential election’s outcome Daniel Carpenter - August 4, 2020 If the game is constitutional hardball, Democrats could try this play
For Democratic governors, it pays to have a Democratic attorney general. Republicans, not so much. Nicholas Miras - August 2, 2020 Many states split up executive branch power among several elected officials. Here’s what happens when they are not from the same party.
Black communities have been hit hard by the coronavirus. Some think black Americans are to blame. Lauren Goldstein - May 14, 2020 Racial resentment may fuel the belief that African Americans should take more personal responsibility.
Who can convince Americans to follow the science on coronavirus? Religious leaders. Sam Winter-Levy and Bryan Schonfeld - May 7, 2020 They can get people to look beyond partisanship.
Should U.S. states be free to close their borders to other U.S. citizens? Wallace Goodman - April 3, 2020 Without federal leadership, governors and mayors are handling the pandemic very differently.
In some states, coronavirus measures are effectively banning abortion Miranda Yaver - March 30, 2020 Governors and other officials are declaring abortions to be ‘nonessential’ medical procedures
Trump declared two different kinds of emergencies for covid-19. There might soon be 52. Andrew Rudalevige - March 14, 2020 What does an emergency declaration mean, in law and practice?
Supreme Court will consider whether states can ‘protect’ women from abortion. What’s behind that argument? Mary Ziegler - March 2, 2020 Louisiana is saying that clinics should have no right to challenge state regulations on the procedure
White Trump voters are richer than they appear Thomas Ogorzalek, Spencer Piston, and Luisa Godinez Puig - November 11, 2019 President Trump speaks at a "Keep America Great" rally in
The anti-Trump ‘Lights for Liberty’ events might be the most significant protests you’ve never heard of. Tommy Leung, Nathan Perkins, Jeremy Pressman, and Erica Chenoweth - July 30, 2019 This kind of activism could matter in 2020.
Treating immigrants like criminals has a long history in the United States Melina Juárez Pérez - July 18, 2019 “Crimmigration” started well before the Trump administration.
Should contraception be sold over the counter? AOC and Ted Cruz aren’t actually allies on this. Rachel VanSickle-Ward and Kevin Wallsten - June 23, 2019 Democrats and Republicans remain starkly divided over the details.
Women who’ve been pregnant are more likely to support abortion rights — if you remind them of their pregnancies Eleanor Schiff and Anne Whitesell - June 2, 2019 But does that stay with them when they vote?
Surprised by all these abortion bans? Meet Americans United for Life — the most significant antiabortion group you’ve never heard of. Susan Roberts - May 31, 2019 It designs legislation aimed at staying out of the headlines and minimizing backlash.
Yes, Gillibrand and DeLauro introduced a family leave bill. More important, Republicans are introducing paid leave bills, too. Megan Sholar - February 20, 2019 Paid leave has gone mainstream.
The 2019 Women’s March was bigger than you think Jeremy Pressman and Erica Chenoweth - February 1, 2019 After two years of counting political crowds in the United
What Cindy Hyde-Smith’s victory in Mississippi tells us about the South Seth McKee - November 29, 2018 [caption id="" align="alignnone" width="3606"] Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) celebrates her
An unprecedented number of female military veterans ran as Democrats this year. Here’s why they were unusually successful. Rebecca Best and Jeremy Teigen - November 14, 2018 [caption id="attachment_80190" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democrat Elaine Luria, a former Navy
What gets ex-prisoners politically and civically involved? Michael Owens and Hannah Walker - September 21, 2018 [caption id="attachment_78059" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A sign directs citizens to a
No, Republicans haven’t ‘always’ supported voting rights until now. This is the real story. Jesse H. Rhodes - January 12, 2018 [caption id="attachment_68027" align="aligncenter" width="960"] In this file photo, a voter
Resentful white people propelled Trump to the White House — and he is rewarding their loyalty John Sides - August 3, 2017 The Trump administration is preparing to have the Justice Department’s
The effects of climate change will force millions to migrate Kelly McFarland and Vanessa Lide - April 23, 2017 Here's what this means for human security.
Worried about the decline in democracy? Worry about the politicians, not the voters. Matthias Matthijs and Erik Jones - April 11, 2017 [caption id="attachment_54524" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Virginians received “I voted” stickers at
Trump’s plan to roll back Medicaid will especially affect his voters Francesco Ruggieri, Federico Ferrara, and Andrea Cerrato - January 27, 2017 [caption id="attachment_53153" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Senate Minority Leader Charles E.
There are huge holes in how the U.S. states investigate politicians’ conflicts of interest Pedro Cruz, Mike Beaudet, and John Wihbey - January 12, 2017 [caption id="attachment_50207" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A voter casts a ballot behind
8 questions about the future of banking regulation under Trump Brent Sutton - November 23, 2016 [caption id="attachment_38035" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (Mark Lennihan/AP)[/caption] One of President Obama’s
This is why Senate Republicans might (not) go nuclear Sarah Binder - November 14, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49494" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President-elect Donald Trump with wife Melania
Early voting predict who wins. This is good news for Democrats. Brian Schaffner and Anthony Rentsch - November 1, 2016 Early voting in the 2016 election is underway in many
Everything you need to know about election observers — and why the U.S. needs them Katy Collin - October 28, 2016 [caption id="attachment_48344" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Voters line up Oct. 20 during
Of course Donald Trump goes low. That’s the populists’ winning style. Pierre Ostiguy and Benjamin Moffitt - October 20, 2016 [caption id="attachment_48165" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds
Sanctuary cities do not experience an increase in crime Loren Collingwood and Benjamin Gonzalez-O'Brien - October 3, 2016 [caption id="attachment_28863" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Immigration reform activists hold a sign
GOP voters picked Trump. Party leaders aren’t falling in line. Here’s why that’s surprising. Jeffery Jenkins and Boris Heersink - May 10, 2016 Now that Donald Trump has all but wrapped up the
Why is Hillary Clinton doing worse among whites now than in 2008? Racial attitudes. Michael Tesler - May 4, 2016 [caption id="attachment_37363" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders thinks the Democratic primary process ‘distorts reality.’ Does history back this up? Jeffery Jenkins and Boris Heersink - April 17, 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont recently said his
If Sweden and Germany became U.S. states, would they be among the poorest? Andrew Gelman - April 15, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39034" align="aligncenter" width="376"] Are Sweden and Germany poorer than
This one chart shows which Republicans bashed Hillary Clinton in Tuesday night’s debate. We explain why. David A. Hopkins - November 11, 2015 [caption id="attachment_32085" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidates John Kasich, Jeb
A surprising factor that may increase voter turnout: a cancer diagnosis Wendy Rahn and Sarah Gollust - October 22, 2015 [caption id="attachment_31065" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] (Bigstock)[/caption] Preliminary forecasts predict a close
You can print your own guns at home. Next it will be nuclear weapons. Really. James Gilley and Daniel Tirone - September 7, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29190" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] An undated image released by Defense
When Katrina evacuees moved to new places, people's attitudes changed — for the worse John Sides - August 30, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29003" align="aligncenter" width="1100"] Victims of Hurricane Katrina stayed at
When Katrina evacuees moved to new places, people’s attitudes changed — for the worse John Sides - August 30, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29003" align="aligncenter" width="1100"] Victims of Hurricane Katrina stayed at
How to get reelected if you are an Iranian MP Paasha Mahdavi - August 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28478" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Women stand in the line to
When the teacher’s edition is wrong Mark Palko - July 14, 2015 Perhaps the strangest thing about the heated debate over the
Republicans say goodbye to the Confederate flag–and hello to a new strategy Joseph Lowndes - June 24, 2015 [caption id="attachment_26439" align="alignnone" width="620" class="center"] File: Protesters hold a sign
Times have changed, KKK edition Andrew Gelman - December 30, 2014 Rep. Steve Scalise (R) of Louisiana got into the news
Election Lab on track to forecast 35 of 36 Senate races correctly John Sides - November 5, 2014 With almost all of the Senate races called, we can
Final forecast: Republicans have a 98% chance of taking the Senate John Sides - November 4, 2014 Barring any changes due to polls released in the next
The 2014 midterm election fundamentals (in 4 graphs) John Sides - November 3, 2014 There is a strong consensus among the election forecasting models:
Why late shifts in the polls probably won't help Democrats in Senate races John Sides - October 17, 2014 All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at
Why late shifts in the polls probably won’t help Democrats in Senate races John Sides - October 17, 2014 All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at
Can political party super-PACS reduce polarization? Richard Pildes - September 26, 2014 [caption id="attachment_16139" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of
New forecast gives GOP a 63% chance of taking the Senate John Sides - August 22, 2014 Our Election Lab midterm forecast has been bullish about a
The Election Lab midterm forecast, explained John Sides - July 17, 2014 Nate Cohn tweeted yesterday: And he included the Upshot’s table
New Election Lab forecast suggests 86 percent chance that GOP wins Senate John Sides - July 15, 2014 Election Lab, our midterm elections forecast, has been updated with a
What’s the value of early Senate polls? John Sides - July 10, 2014 Some recent discussions of Senate forecasting models have looked at current
Electing women makes for better citizens Danny Hayes - June 23, 2014 [caption id="attachment_12219" align="aligncenter" width="660"] Representative Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.) (left), talks
When and why do U.S. states make English their official language? Amy Liu and Anand Sokhey - June 18, 2014 Rick Santorum. Made in America. Not “Hecho en América” (Mike
Take this quiz and see if you can pick the ‘gerrymandered’ redistricting plan John Sides - May 27, 2014 So there has been some recent debate about redistricting or
Take this quiz and see if you can pick the 'gerrymandered' redistricting plan John Sides - May 27, 2014 So there has been some recent debate about redistricting or
Why Republicans may avoid the ghost of Senate elections past John Sides - April 9, 2014 [caption id="attachment_9242" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] 2012 Republican Senate candidate Richard
The 8 most pivotal Senate seats in 2014 Ben Highton - April 1, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark.,
Why Republicans can be even more optimistic about taking the Senate John Sides - March 31, 2014 [caption id="attachment_6481" align="aligncenter" width="620" special=""] (Michael Hicks/via Flickr)[/caption] Democrats' prospects
Politico mocks and then agrees with our Senate forecast John Sides - February 7, 2014 Friday's "Playbook" features some commentary on our Senate forecasting model,
How Republicans can win the Senate in 2014 John Sides - February 6, 2014 This is a guest post by University of California, Davis,
How U.S. state legislatures are polarized and getting more polarized (in 2 graphs) - January 14, 2014 Boris Shor is an assistant professor at the Harris School
What Max Baucus's departure means for the Montana Senate race John Sides - December 19, 2013 [caption id="attachment_4286" align="aligncenter" width="600" special=""] (Haraz N. Ghanbari — Associated
Was the nuclear option about filling the courts or filling the courts with Democrats? Erik Voeten - November 23, 2013 The following guest post is by Tom Clark and Sanford
Earning More Seats with Fewer Votes: Why the 1996 House Election Results are Not Necessarily a Good Analogy for 2012 Joshua Tucker - December 6, 2012 The following is a guest post from Yale University political
First Responder-in-Chief, 1965 edition Andrew Rudalevige - October 29, 2012 Thanks to Will Nelligan for alerting me to this --
Arlen Specter and “Moderation” Andrew Rudalevige - October 15, 2012 Longtime senator Arlen Specter (R, er, D-PA) has died and
The Key to Surviving Natural Disasters John Sides - August 29, 2012 bq. Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in Louisiana last night,
Why don’t low-income whites love the Democrats? - December 6, 2010 _Unequal Democracy_ is one of the best books on American
Politics Everywhere: Monks Making Coffins John Sides - August 27, 2010 bq. Five years ago, Hurricane Katrina gave the Benedictine monks
New Developments in APSA Boycotts John Sides - February 22, 2010 Inside Higher Ed describes a new petition regarding the upcoming
Debunking the so-called Human Development Index of U.S. states Andrew Gelman - May 21, 2009 Alex Hoffman pointed me to this widely-circulated map comparing the
Economic Hardship and the 2008 Presidential Vote John Sides - April 10, 2009 Wendy Tam Cho and Jim Gimpel have a new piece
Corruption Smackdown: The Graph John Sides - December 17, 2008 Andy suggests a graph to replace Lee's table below. Here
The Corruption Smackdown - December 16, 2008 Over at Slate, Jacob Weisberg has posted a smackdown between
Bridging the gulf Henry Farrell - August 21, 2008 "Marc Ambinder":http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/no_offense_to_political_scient.php at _The Atlantic_ blogs ... No Offense To
Rating the Performance of the 50 State Governments - March 4, 2008 Governing Magazine and the Pew Center on the States have
Louisiana Is #1: Let the Good Times Roll! - January 24, 2008 No, I'm not talking about football. (Well, Louisiana is #1
Telecommunications Exorcism in Reeves, LA John Sides - January 4, 2008 bq. A town in the US state of Louisiana is
Children and Presidents, Redux John Sides - November 28, 2007 To follow up on Lee's post, there is actually some