Almost all Republicans will vote for Trump this fall
Ignore recent exit polls to the contrary. Minds will change by November.
Presidents can’t declassify documents with Green Lantern superpowers
Let’s look at the many, many holes in Donald Trump’s theory of executive power.
Do political scandals even matter any more?
Increasingly, partisans back “their” candidate. For everyone else, too many scandals make it hard to focus on anyone.
How will Americans respond when there’s another split between the electoral college and the popular vote?
Only Democrats think this scenario makes the election less legitimate
Conservative Supreme Court judges may undermine Trump to get their way
They may care less about the president’s trade agenda than gutting the administrative state.
Trump supporters and opponents are increasingly divided on whether constitutional principles are under threat
There’s little that would unite the country to defend democracy.
The Kavanaugh confirmation polarized women, and motivated them to vote — some for Republicans, some for Democrats.
[caption id="attachment_68027" align="alignnone" width="960"] A voter leaves a polling place
The Supreme Court hasn’t followed public opinion for 50 years. Why would it start now?
[caption id="attachment_78122" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump's Supreme Court nominee Judge
The New York Times revealed how Fred Trump funneled $413 million to his son Donald. Will that change American opinion?
On Tuesday, a New York Times special investigation revealed that
The surprise Mueller indictment tells us how we’ve been wrong about Russian trolls
[caption id="attachment_69343" align="aligncenter" width="960"] The silhouette of Robert S. Mueller
Homegrown ‘fake news’ is a bigger problem than Russian propaganda. Here’s a way to make falsehoods more costly for politicians.
[caption id="attachment_65227" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg at the
These 3 things help make sense of the dangerous Minnesota measles outbreak
[caption id="attachment_59132" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Tahlil Wehlie speaks with his son
New political science initiative calls for evaluating research before knowing the results
[caption id="attachment_19279" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Kacper Pempel/Reuters[/caption] Wednesday saw the announcement
The ‘missing 28 pages’ from the Congressional report on 9/11 won’t stop conspiracy theories. Here’s why.
[caption id="attachment_44889" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] The National 9/11 Flag is unfurled
There are lots of dumb predictions about third parties. Here’s a smarter one.
[caption id="attachment_41353" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Campaign buttons for Libertarian presidential candidate
Will foreign policy be a major issue in the 2016 election? Here’s what we know.
At the last two Republican debates, the looming center-stage presence
Conspiracy theories won’t save the governing party in Venezuela
[caption id="attachment_33090" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro greets supporters
Sometimes political fact-checking works. Sometimes it doesn’t. Here’s what can make the difference.
[caption id="attachment_25669" align="aligncenter" width="864"] True, false, and otherwise: how has
Have the nerds really beaten the campaign pundits? Not yet.
David Leonhardt, the editor of The Upshot, recently took on
How to make scientific research more trustworthy
After Brendan Nyhan’s September 2014 New York Times piece advocating
Don't sleep on Senate endorsements
[caption id="attachment_17199" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of
Don’t sleep on Senate endorsements
[caption id="attachment_17199" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of
Can greater transparency lead to better social science?
[caption id="attachment_16088" align="alignnone" width="620"] Anne Saulnier watches as her husband,
Conspiracy theories aren't just for conservatives
[caption id="attachment_14778" align="aligncenter" width="714"] (REUTERS/Bob Strong)[/caption] Who doesn’t love a
Conspiracy theories aren’t just for conservatives
[caption id="attachment_14778" align="aligncenter" width="714"] (REUTERS/Bob Strong)[/caption] Who doesn’t love a
Some good news about Muslims in Europe
[caption id="attachment_13060" align="aligncenter" width="620"] A picture taken on Aug. 01,
Is Scott Walker really facing any 'scandal' at all?
In Brandon Rottinghaus' post earlier Friday morning, he described research on
Is Scott Walker really facing any ‘scandal’ at all?
In Brandon Rottinghaus' post earlier Friday morning, he described research on
Will Obama drag down the Democratic ticket in 2016?
[caption id="attachment_11920" align="aligncenter" width="620"] (Win McNamee/Getty Images)[/caption] A reporter inquires:
State of Union address won't turn Obama's polling numbers around
[caption id="attachment_5747" align="aligncenter" width="586" special=""] President Obama giving State of
State of Union address won’t turn Obama’s polling numbers around
[caption id="attachment_5747" align="aligncenter" width="586" special=""] President Obama giving State of
How damaged is Chris Christie? Here's who will tell you.
[caption id="attachment_5024" align="aligncenter" width="510" special=""] AP Photo/Mel Evans[/caption] What do
Just two sentences make Americans as pro-welfare as Danes
[caption id="attachment_3889" align="aligncenter" width="417" special=""] (Tom Toles/The Washington Post)[/caption] That's
When threatened with fact-checking, politicans really will lie less often.
[caption id="attachment_1388" align="aligncenter" width="640" special=""] (David Greenwald/Creative Commons)[/caption] Imagine you're
What’s Wrong with “What’s Wrong with Obama?”
(With apologies to Larry Bartels...) Yesterday's Politico story trumpeting (despite
The New Journalism: Same as the Old Journalism
bq. As a result, most Americans still get news that
Political Science Graduates As Political Reporters
As the criticism of our current state of journalism and
Is Politifact Biased Against Republicans?
A leading media fact-checking organization rates Republicans as less trustworthy
Improving the First Draft of History
Just wanted to note a quick and surely incomplete census
Reason #17 to Blog about Your Research…
... because someday someone might write this about you: But
Why the “Permission Structure” Makes Obama Smart (and Too Many Pundits Dumb)
It's really extraordinarily pleasing to watch a terribly misinformed view
“Juice” Meets the “Permission Structure”
In his press conference today, President Obama was asked about
Bullied Pulpit
Most denizens of the political science blogosphere will know by
Congressional Dysfunction: Bad for the GOP in 2014?
This question was the subject of a recent Politico piece
Death Panels and the Challenges of Correcting Political Misperceptions
Context: Misperceptions are a major problem in debates about health
A Conversation
"This":http://storify.com/brendannyhan/how-much-does-congressional-process-matter-to-vote?awesm=sfy.co_mD5w&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=sfy.co-twitter&utm_campaign=&utm_content=storify-pingback, between Brendan Nyhan and _Politico_ reporter Alex Burns is
4 Steps for Improving News Coverage of Election Polls
I am speaking on a panel this morning at the
The 2012 Election Was Not a Mandate
When your side wins, it's easy to think you have
More on the Romney Momentum Meme
Brendan Nyhan brings this graph and has more. Again, the
Reports of Media Polarization Effects Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Via Brendan Nyhan on Twitter, a new paper by "Mike
Coming Soon: Congressional Election Forecasts
With all the forecasts of the presidential election -- e.g.,
Symposium on Timothy Groseclose’s Arguments about Liberal Bias
The current issue of _Perspectives on Politics_ includes a symposium
Potpourri: Eastwooding Edition
* Eastwooding from buzzfeed * Eastwooding @FastLaugh: "Give Clint Eastwood
The Racializing Influence of Romney’s Welfare Ad
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/0F4LtTlktm0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> This is a guest
Potpourri
* Annals of partisanship: campaign ethics. * How libertarian is
Potpourri
* Latest election forecast by Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
What Would an Obama Victory Mean for Political Science?
Noam Scheiber tweets: This prompted replies from me, "Dave McW,"
Supreme Court’s ACA Decision Polarizes, Doesn’t Persuade
Before the Court's decision came down, I predicted: bq. How
Potpourri
* More data on attitudes toward health care reform, from
Gallup’s Problems Are Everyone’s Problems
This is a magisterial exercise in polling forensics by Mark
Potpourri
* Jon Bernstein's 5 myths about swing states. * Michael
Obama and Black Support for Same-Sex Marriage
A new Public Policy Poll finds a substantial increase in
More NSF-Related Links
* Steven Mazie argues for defending social science generally. *
Electoral vs. informational value
Brendan Nyhan writes: "people are missing the forest for the
Potpourri
* Podcasts and more at Sage's Social Science Space. *
Three Ideas for Reforming Journals
From Brendan Nyhan: * Pre-accept articles. * Choose a random
Potpourri
* The Kazakh national anthem is not the one they
Would an “Etch-a-Sketch” Attack Actually Work?
Brendan Nyhan concludes a great post on the Etch-a-Sketch comment
Health Care and the 2012 Election
I have a piece up at Al Jazeera on how
Potpourri
* Jon Bernstein predicts everything that people will say about
Potpourri
* The story behind the fMRI of that fish. Via
SOTU Preview
In case anyone gets a case of SOTU fever, I'll
Potpourri
* The real cost of Romney's home renovation. * Another
Blending Journalism with Academia
bq. I think the press is way too focused on
Underemphasized Points about the Economy and Elections
The latest rounds of "nerdfight" -- Seth Masket vs. Sean
The attack on election forecasting straw men
I agree (again) with Brendan Nyhan here. As I wrote
Forecasting 2012: How much does ideology matter?
Brendan Nyhan and Jacob Montgomery talk sense here. I am
On Obama’s Secret Weapon
Michael Tomasky's piece deserves a few responses. He begins with
Broken Politics, Mixed-Up Media
"Broken Politics, Mixed-Up Media" is the title of a panel
Graphiti: Obama Isn’t Truman
From Brendan Nyhan's post. The upshot: don't claim that Truman's
Let’s Check Some Predictions on Divided Government
Matt Bai, January 7, 2010: bq. Sure, all things being
How Much Have the Debates Hurt Rick Perry?
The debates have knocked his lead over Romney from 12
Why Approval of Congress Matters (Redux)
The new CBS/New York Times poll -- which finds that
More on the Groseclose-Milyo Measure of Media Bias
bq. This research note engages the current research on measuring
Thoughts on Groseclose book on media bias
Respected political scientist Tim Groseclose just came out with a
The Importance of the Invisible Primary
Hans Noel sits down for an excellent Q&A with Greg
Potpourri (Political Scientists Making News Edition)
Harvey Mansfield in the Wall Street Journal on undergraduates' choice
How Political Science Can Help Journalists (and Still Let Them Be Journalists)
This is a long post, and I realize that I've
Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery, Right? New Blog at TNR
"The New Republic":http://www.tnr.com/ has a new blog on their website
The Empty Bench
Jon Bernstein has "a nice op-ed":http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/opinion/09Bernstein.html?_r=1&ref=opinion in the New York
Political Vitriol and Political Violence
This is from a statement by the National Jewish Democratic
Boston Review Piece on 2010
Eric McGhee, Brendan Nyhan, and I melded our respective blogging
2010 Was a Pretty Good Year for Incumbents After All
Back when pundits were tripping over themselves to call 2010
Did Controversial Roll Call Votes Doom the Democrats?
Did Obama's ambitious agenda -- specifically, health care reform, the
How Much Did the Tea Party Help GOP Candidates?
The answer to this question is rife with what Brendan
Back to Basics: Districts and Defeated Democrats
If you had one thing, and one thing only, to
Election Eve Potpourri
* Matt Dickinson to Nate Silver: "Man up":http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2010/11/01/nate-silver-is-not-a-political-scientist! * David
Election Interpretation Bingo
The card is courtesy of Brendan Nyhan, who did yeoman's
Tea Party Candidates Are Quality Candidates
That's Brendan Nyhan's "conclusion":http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/blog/2010/10/did-the-tea-party-weaken-gop-candidate-quality.html: bq. More importantly, while it's true
Continuing efforts to justify false “death panels” claim
Brendan Nyhan gives the story. Here's Sarah Palin's statement introducing