bq. Since Turkey’s aid flotilla to Gaza, many foreign policy pundits and analysts have suggested that Turkey may be turning East in its foreign policy. While this East/West dichotomy is pervasive in discussing Turkey’s foreign policy, few have bothered to empirically analyze public perceptions to see if Turks perceive this dichotomy. We analyze the Pew Global Attitudes Project surveys for Turkey from 2004 to 2009, and find little evidence to support an East/West divide in foreign policy attitudes. Rather, the main division seems to be between isolationists and internationalists. Qualitative evidence and the analyses of several major Turkish scholars back up this conclusion.
From a new paper (ungated) by Ryan Kennedy and Matthew Dickenson. Here is more at Matt’s blog, where he quotes the concluding paragraph of the paper:
bq. The refutation of axis theory suggests that Turkey is not allying with the US’s primary geopolitical competitors. Greater antipathy towards the US and the EU, however, is not unproblematic, even if it does not mean greater support for Iran or other actors. Indeed, contrary to rosier analyses, it seems that the attitude that “A Turk has no friends other than a Turk” still carries currency. Similarly, greater nationalism may still lead Turkey to distance itself from NATO or abandon its elusive quest for EU membership, much as Gaullism led France to abandon NATO. Even with these risks, the policy recommendations of axis theory supporters, to marginalize Turkey as punishment for recent actions, would likely be counter-productive. Given the broad cohesiveness we observe in the Turkish electorate, it is likely that Turkish foreign policy will continue on a trend toward autonomy no matter which party wins a plurality of votes in the upcoming elections in June.