The Netherlands-Spain it will be. This guarantees that a new country will be added to the very small list of World Cup winners. I don’t think anyone can have any complaints about this final. The Dutch haven’t really dominated any of their matches but they have won all of them deservedly and without much controversy, including a gutsy come-from-behind victory against number-one ranked Brazil. Spain has increasingly started to dominate its matches, although it has only managed 1-0 victories in the knock-out rounds.
My earlier statement that quarterfinals and semi-finals tend to be the best matches of any World Cup was confirmed by most matches this year. Finals are often disappointing, although given that I am bleeding orange right now the only way I can be disappointed is if Oranje doesn’t manage to squeeze out another victory. Here are some early thoughts on the final. I may write some more later if the mood strikes me. Feel free to leave your thoughts and reactions in the comments.
* History. The Dutch and the Spanish have played eachother 9 times, each winning 4. Astonishingly, they have never met at a World Cup or a European Championship. Their most antagonistic encounter involves the qualification campaign for the 1984 European Championship. The Dutch were bound to qualify unless Spain somehow managed to win its last game against Malta by an improbable 11-goal differential. Even before the game, the Dutch were convinced that the game was going to be fixed. At half-time, the score was just 3-1 but somehow the Spanish managed to score another 9 goals in the second half. Several Maltese players suffered food poisoning before the game, the goalkeeper was hit by a bottle, and the Turkish referee so blatantly favored the Spanish that he was never again invited to referee another international match. The Maltese goalkeeper, John Bonello, later turned up in a Spanish beer commercial called El Amigo Perfecto (ironically for Amstel beer). No foul play was ever proven or even investigated but soccer-crazy Dutchmen drew their own conclusions. This was a long time ago, though, so there will be no hard feelings either way.
* That other kind of history. There is of course that whole thing about the eighty years war , which began as a Dutch revolt against the rule of Philip II. Not much memory of that except that in the singing of the Dutch national anthem you may hear some Dutch players strangely declaring their loyalty to the Spanish king .
* How to get the damn ball (and keep it)? This is the big question facing any opponent of the Spanish. Spain is just incredibly good in keeping the ball and winning it back when they lose it. At times, the German players seemed so happy just to get a touch that they wanted to use the opportunity to give an improbable 40 yard pass or cross. I thought that Paraguay did a good job with this with their high pressing game but that’s not the way the Dutch play. The Dutch play a decent passing game but they are no match for the Spanish on that front. The first key for the Dutch is to be aggressive, something that I found wanting in the Germans today. Expect some more forceful tackles from De Jong and Van Bommel. The second key is the Sneijder-Robben combo. Given that the Spanish press very high (including with their fullbacks) they are liable for a counter attack if you have a player who has a defense-splitting pass (Sneijder) and a fast attacker (Robben). The Capdevilla-Robben match-up should worry the Spanish.
* Through balls. The major weakness of this Dutch defense is defending through balls to players getting in behind their line. The major strength of the Spanish offense is little through balls to strikers that get in behind the opponent’s defense. I am worried.
* Start. The Dutch had a horrid start against Brazil. They must avoid a similar start at all cost as playing from behind against the Spanish is even harder than against Brazil The Spanish have not managed to score many early goals this tournament. The Dutch need to keep it that way. For the game, an early goal would of course be terrific.
*Prediction: I don’t have a psychic octopus but I am going for a 2-1 victory for the Netherlands.