There is surely something interesting to be said about the domestic politics of World Cup failures. Politicians across the globe appear exceptionally eager to deride the lazy millionaires who have failed to bring glory to their countries. French president Sarkozy investigates the failures of the French team, Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan suspends the Nigerian team following its elimination, and a British Conservative MP demands an inquiry into the English failure. Amidst all this, Berlusconi has remained remarkably silent. What’s up with that?
Unfortunately, I am not in the mood today to look for political science angles to write about the World Cup. In case you don’t know: Holland plays Brazil tomorrow morning. If you are a Dutch soccer fanatic (like me), these types of games don’t come around too often. The last time was in 1998 when “we” lost to Brazil in the semi-finals after a penalty shoot-out. In 1994, we lost to Brazil in a 3-2 quarterfinal that was widely considered to be the best of the tournament. The Dutch did beat Brazil in the 1974 semi-final through great goals by Neeskens and Cruyff. It would be awfully nice to win this time.
Quarterfinals and semi-finals are generally the best games at any World Cup. They almost always feature two teams of roughly equal strength that are able to come back if the other team scores first. The games are tense but tension is not as overwhelming as it is for finals, which almost always disappoint. The Germany-Argentina and Holland-Brazil games are especially tasty prospects but I am also looking forward to see the Ghana-Uruguay battle. In case you are interested, I’ll write a bit more about the Holland-Brazil game below the fold. in case you are not interested, at least I got it out of my system. It’s difficult being a lonely Oranje fan here with no opportunity to demonstrate my oh-so perceptive outlook on tactics.
Both Brazil and Holland play in a similar defensive tactical formation with a back four and two defensive midfield players to provide protection in front of that. The offensive tactics differ somewhat. Holland plays with wingers that keep the field wide whereas Brazil mostly relies on its fullbacks (Maicon and Bastos) to provide offensive width. Robinho plays nominally from the left but is allowed to wander in support of striker Fabiano who is supported in the back by Kaka, who has had a strong tournament so far.
The Dutch will probably start with Kuyt on the left, who will also have the task of tracking back when Maicon storms forward. Robben will start on the right with Van Persie as a center forward. Sneijder will be the key player behind these three. The Dutch front four regularly change positions, which makes defending them difficult. Van Persie has not had a strong tournament so far and he will again have a difficult time against Brazil’s phenomenal center backs Juan and Lucio. Yet, he was in great shape before the tournament and the Dutch hope for a spectacular game from him. The Brazilians fear Robben the most and they should as he gave Bastos a torrid time when Bayern played Lyon in the Champions League.
The Brazilians also have to worry about their midfield with Gilberto Silva aging, Elano out through injury, Ramires suspended, and Felipe Melo an injury doubt. If they have to play Silva and Josue in the middle of the park that could be a potential vulnerability that the Dutch may exploit.
To some degree, this game will be about which creative trio will succeed in breaking down the opponent’s defense: Robinho-Kaka-Fabiano or Robben-Van Persie-Sneijder? In terms of their individual qualities, I wouldn’t trade the Dutch trio for the Brazilian trio but the Brazilian defense is stronger than the Dutch defense (or really any defense at this World Cup). Moreover, the Brazilians get more offense from their other players (especially Maicon, Alves, and Lucio). The Dutch do have great offensive options from the bench with Van Der Vaart, Elia, Huntelaar, and Affellay, who could all come in and change the game in their own way. I actually think the Dutch bench is stronger in terms of offensive options, although I shudder to think what would happen if we had to replace our defensive players.
On the other hand, games like this are often decided not by the main creative players but by goals from corner kicks, freekicks, defensive errors, lost possession in midfield, red cards, bad calls and so on. The Brazilians tend to be a bit better in avoiding errors and scoring from free-kicks and corners than the Dutch. Sneijder’s free-kicks have so far looked more like field goal attempts than shots at goal.
In all, the Brazilians are probably slight favorites but the Dutch can certainly pull it off. Let me predict a 3-2 victory for Oranje with a last minute goal by substitute Eljero Elia who will nutmeg Maicon in the process.