I had wanted to organize a true Monkey Cage pool, where we would predict World Cup results based on political science theories and data. Alas, life got in the way. All I have are some rather random World Cup observations, some related to political stuff some not. At least I have the decency to put it all below the fold.
* Getting work done. Games start at 7:30AM EST and last throughout the day. This is supposed to be my writing month. My plan is to DVR all games and watch in the evenings. This has the added benefit that I cannot check blogs, facebook, e-mail, etcetera during the day (assuming that my friends will not exercise such restraint). Whether I will manage to meet my noble goals remains to be seen: it is hard to work when Algeria is playing Slovenia for World Cup glory.
* North Korea watch. North Korea’s 1966 World Cup run is the stuff of legends. Don’t look for them to repeat in the Group of Death but there are plenty of interesting stories, none more so than their star player Jong Tae-se: a South Korean born in Japan who switched his nationality to North Korea (he was educated in Japanese North Korean schools).
* Zimbabwe watch. Brazil decided that it was a good idea to play a friendly match in Zimbabwe before the World Cup. Why? Apparently, it was all about making money. All I can say is that I hope karma comes back to haunt them in the quarterfinals against a certain orange-clad team. (Apparently, even North Korea canceled its scheduled appearance in Zimbabwe).
* Cinderella watch. Paraguay is an experienced team with top-notch strikers and a favorable draw. Italy is usually a slow starter in these tournaments and Paraguay could just snatch top-spot in the group, which would set them up for a favorable second round match-up (likely against Cameroon or Denmark). Serbia is also capable of upsetting favorite Germany to win its group and get a nice second round match up (likely with the USA, which itself has a great draw for a good run). Nigeria probably won’t win its group but despite the usual chaotic nature of its build-up still has a good chance to proceed to the quarters or further. Given the draw, groups A, B, C, and D are most likely to deliver an upset team that makes it to the quarter or semi-finals.
* Bad luck watch. Ivory Coast has terrific players and could challenge for World Cup glory. Unfortunately, they appear to have lost their captain and star player (Didier Drogba) to injury. They have also been drawn into the toughest group for the second World Cup in a row (last time they were with Holland and Argentina). Should they get out of their group, their likely reward is a match-up with favorites Spain iin the second round. I am going to root for them to pull it off against all odds. Their first round match-up with Portugal on Tuesday is absolutely key: the loser of that game faces a nearly impossible task.
* I have no clue what team will win group A.
* Arjen Robben’s hamstring and Joran van der Sloot are completely overwhelming today’s elections in the Netherlands.
