Elections do not always provide clarity and resolution. Sometimes they merely prolong uncertainty. On Sunday, Bulgarians went to the polls for the fourth time in 18 months, but the chances of forming a stable government look slim. Here are four reasons Bulgaria’s elections failed to produce a more definitive outcome.
The novelty of new parties fades
A new party, Change Continues, won the November 2021 elections with a recipe familiar to observers of Central and East European politics: a strong dose of anti-corruption combined with a claim of competence, a dash of celebrity and the appeal of newness.
But party leaders Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev formed a coalition that lacked the skills and experience to navigate the corridors of power. They struggled to deliver on their promises, and the coalition was derailed when a junior partner left the government — a move taken in protest over the government’s decision to lift Bulgaria’s veto on North Macedonia starting E.U. accession negotiations. A caretaker government replaced Petkov’s administration in August.
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In Sunday’s election, Change Continues saw its support slip to 20 percent. Its campaign sought to mobilize voters around an anti-corruption agenda, strong pro-E. U. position and center-left issues such as higher pensions and more kindergartens. Its limited time in office, and the fact that no new anti-corruption party had appeared to lure away its voters, allowed Change Continues to hang onto at least some of its electorate.
So what do we know about the winner?
The winner of Sunday’s election was three-time prime minister Boyko Borissov. His GERB party won 25 percent of the vote. Mobilizing GERB’s strong local networks and pointing to his successful infrastructure projects, Borissov even managed to win over some former Change Continues voters. Borissov seemed to offer a stability that many Bulgarians seek as the country grapples with high energy prices and a cost-of-living crisis. But corruption allegations against GERB may have curtailed votes from frustrated and disillusioned Bulgarians. For some voters, chaos appeared preferable to corruption.
Another party often accused of corruption, the Movement for Rights and Freedom (MRF), also maintained much of its prior support, ending up with more than 13 percent of the vote. Its success is based largely — but not exclusively — on the party’s strong partisan attachment among ethnic Turkish voters both in Bulgaria and in neighboring Turkey.
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Bulgarians are divided over Russia
The war in Ukraine and Russia’s energy politics have heightened divisions in Bulgarian party politics. Strong historical ties between Bulgaria and Russia helped to fuel support for the nationalist party, Revival, which doubled its support to 10 percent. And a new party with a pro-Russian orientation, Bulgarian Rise, won just under 5 percent of the vote. Petkov had sacked its leader, Stefan Yanev, as defense minister after he refused to describe Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a war.
The pro-Russian stances of Revival and Bulgarian Rise took away potential supporters from the once-dominant vehicle of the country’s politics: the Bulgarian Socialist Party. As the successors to the Bulgarian Communist Party, the Socialists have long-standing links with Russia, but they have become bit-part players in politics in recent times. Despite disagreements with Change Continues, particularly on sanctions against Russia and armed support for Ukraine, the Socialists remained loyal coalition partners until the collapse of the government.
Bulgarians played new and nationalist cards
The pro-Russian parties also won votes from There Is Such a People — a new party centered on its leader, a pop-singer and TV media personality named Slavi Trifonov. The party burst onto the scene in Bulgaria’s April 2021 election. It then won in early elections three months later, but Trifonov failed to form a government. Following Bulgaria’s third elections of 2021, There Is Such a People joined the governing coalition of Change Continues, only to leave it over the North Macedonian veto. The language, identity and the very use of the name of Macedonia is contested by some sections of Bulgarian society.
Trifonov played on nationalist sensitivities, claiming, “Macedonia is an important part of our history and our soul.” He denounced the decision to support Macedonia’s E.U. accession as “national treachery.” He triggered a no-confidence vote in the hope of better results at the ballot box. But by then his star was fading. Support for his party dropped by more than half, leaving it below the 4 percent threshold required to enter parliament. There Is Such a People appears to be following the trend of many new parties in the region of living fast and dying young.
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What happens now?
There is little hope that this week’s elections will produce any government, even a short-lived one. As one leading Bulgarian sociologist put it, “The mathematically possible coalitions are politically unviable and the politically viable coalitions are mathematically impossible.” As predicted by analysts and political leaders alike, these elections were inconclusive and ultimately fruitless.
At the same time, the need for a stable and regular government in Bulgaria is more acute than ever. Geostrategic uncertainties amid Russia’s war in Ukraine — coupled with a Europe-wide economic downturn and a worldwide energy crisis — require immediate attention and resolute political decisions. Instead, Bulgarians are likely to be confronted yet again with another round of early elections.
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Emilia Zankina is dean of Temple University Rome.
Tim Haughton is professor of comparative and European politics at the University of Birmingham. Find him on Twitter @HaughtonTim.