The Belfast News Letter recently had to advise its readers that there was “no need to panic.” It’s the biggest unionist paper, representing the views of people who want Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom. The reason its readers might be worried: the release of figures from the 2021 census, showing that, for the first time, Catholics (42.3 percent of the population) outnumbered Protestants and those of other Christian denominations (37.4 percent).
When the British government partitioned Ireland in 1921, it split Northern Ireland from the south of the island, which later became the Republic of Ireland. It drew borders to give Northern Ireland a two-to-one Protestant majority. Since Protestants almost unanimously supported remaining in the United Kingdom and comfortably outnumbered Catholics (who were overwhelmingly nationalists and supported Irish unity), Northern Ireland’s future as part of the United Kingdom seemed secure.
Now that seems in doubt. Nationalists have greeted the news as hugely significant. Unionists are particularly fearful because the British government made a commitment in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that it would hold a referendum if it seemed likely that a majority would support Irish unity. Some speculate that the census could give the British government a reason to hold a referendum if it wanted to.
So are we about to see a United Ireland soon? It’s unlikely.
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Not all Northern Irish people are Catholic or Protestant
Basic arithmetic tells us that the combined total of Catholics and Protestants is 79.7 percent. Most of the remaining fifth report no religion, but the census explored their religious upbringing. Adding the nonaffiliated on the basis of their childhood religion gives a total of 45.7 percent from a Catholic background and 43.5 percent from a Protestant or other Christian background.
But whatever their background, people who don’t identify with a religion are likely to have different values from those who do. Indeed, they may be becoming a group in their own right. More than 9 percent of the population not only said that they were irreligious, but they hadn’t been brought up in a religion either.
As more people opt out of identifying with a religion, it becomes possible that Catholics may never actually have a formal majority in the census. The share of the population reporting a Catholic background grew by just 0.6 percentage points between 2011 and 2021, even as it overtook the declining Protestant share, which had already dipped below half. Northern Ireland is now a society of three minorities: Catholics, Protestants and “others.”
Queen Elizabeth II was Britain’s lead ambassador.
Catholics aren’t necessarily nationalists, and Protestants aren’t necessarily unionists
There are other ways to try to figure out who belongs to which political community. For example, you could ask people whether they hold a British or Irish passport, as Northern Ireland people can hold either or both. But this is risky. There has been a big increase in the number of Northern Ireland people holding Irish passports since Brexit, because it allows them to travel easily in Europe.
People were first asked about their national identity in the 2011 census. They were allowed to make multiple responses. Back then, just over half those from Catholic backgrounds identified as “Irish” only, and around a quarter as “Northern Irish” only. Two-thirds of their Protestant counterparts identified as “British” only and 15 percent “Northern Irish” only. That suggested that many Catholics weren’t nationalists.
In 2021, fewer people identified as British, either alone or in combination with other options. The figure has dropped from 48.4 to 42.8 percent. That worries some unionists, but it is also true that only a third of people included “Irish” among their responses.
A significant third group, identifying solely as “Northern Irish,” counts for about a fifth of the population. Some politicians and commentators claim that there is now a well-established middle ground bloc, including religious “others” and “Northern Irish” identifiers who are neither unionist or nationalist, and who hold the future of Northern Ireland’s Constitution in their hands.
Northern Ireland has been politically divided. Is that changing?
Nationalists are winning more seats
Unionists are worried by voting patterns as well as population changes. In the 2019 U.K. general election, nationalists won more of Northern Ireland’s Westminster seats than unionists for the first time. In the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election, the nationalist Sinn Féin party became the largest overall party, which meant that it was entitled to the symbolically important post of First Minister.
Still, unionists can console themselves that even though the share of Catholics is rising, nationalist representation in the Assembly is not. Its share in 2022 was identical to that in 1998. Again, the center is rising, represented by the cross-communal Alliance Party, which has particularly strong support among the religiously unaffiliated and those identifying as Northern Irish.
Opinion surveys provide a more direct, if less reliable, insight into voters’ thinking on constitutional matters. Survey research unambiguously finds that Protestants are more attached to Northern Ireland’s current union with Great Britain than Catholics are to the cause of a united Ireland. Brexit has led to higher support for Irish unity, but most polls suggest a large majority still favors belonging to the United Kingdom.
Research says that those who aren’t aligned with one community or another are not necessarily swing voters. Many still consider themselves unionists or nationalists, even if they are more likely to reject such labels than the average voter.
The News Letter was probably correct to say that its unionist readers need not panic. Even so, the trends reported in the census suggest that they will have to adjust to a changed distribution of power and understand that their cultural dominance is gone. Perhaps the status of the union with Great Britain may come into doubt in the future too, as European Union-level geopolitics and U.K.-level lack of interest reinforce Northern Ireland-level demography.
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John Coakley is a fellow in the Geary Institute and emeritus professor of politics at University College Dublin.
Laurence Cooley is an assistant professor in the department of political science and international studies, University of Birmingham.