Race in American political life is often the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Simply put, race (or racism, to be exact) explains a large percentage of people’s political calculus. Strategists and pundits alike often think of Black Americans as monolithic voters because they support Democratic candidates at rates higher than other ethno-racial groups.
Yet, if and when Black voters do not support the Democratic candidate, party leaders often accuse them of not being Black enough – and criticize them for withholding support to which candidates feel entitled. When Black voters do as expected and turn out to support Democratic candidates, the media often heralds this voting bloc as “saviors of democracy.” But when Black voters either stay home or support the GOP, they are chastised.
Black voters save the day
When Black voters in South Carolina delivered Joe Biden a much-needed primary win in February 2020, Democrats hailed them as saviors. Twelve years earlier, when 95% of Black voters supported Barack Obama’s presidential bid, many pointed to the Black vote as a key element of his 2008 victory.
But what about white Americans and their support of the Democratic Party? Spoiler alert: The 1964 campaign was the last time a Democratic candidate won the white vote, in fact. As legend has it, upon signing the Civil Rights Act that year, President Lyndon Johnson quipped that the Democratic Party was losing the South for a generation. That very year, Johnson bested Barry Goldwater in a landslide election. However Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina gave their electoral votes to Goldwater – who infamously failed to support the Civil Rights Act of 1964. In subsequent decades, many white voters across the country, and especially in the South, left the Democratic Party.
When Democratic candidates fall short in their bids for high-profile office, such as the presidency, the election analysis inevitably includes some version of the following question: What happened to Black voters? For instance, when Hillary Clinton failed to win 270 electoral votes in 2016, some pointed to Black voters being less enthusiastic about her campaign than they were about backing Barack Obama’s campaigns. The takeaway point was clear: Had more Black voters showed up to the polls in “blue wall” states, then America would have elected Clinton as the first female president in the country’s history.
Fast forward to the 2024 election cycle. In October, Obama admonished Black men to support Kamala Harris. This warning seems another alert for Black voters: Don’t be the reason Harris might not be elected the nation’s 47th president. News outlets may already be preparing headlines and articles that call out Black voters for not being as supportive of Harris as they were of previous presidential candidates.
Here’s how we examined party choice and Black voters
What can the data tell us? The analysis here relies on data from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), which includes 18 years of survey data collected between 2006 and 2023 and is designed to be representative of all U.S. adults. Across the datasets collected between 2006 and 2023, there are 25,749 Black men and 45,212 Black women in this sample. We rely on these data to show patterns of political support over time.
Figure 1 below shows Black voters drifting away from the Democratic Party since the 2008 and 2012 elections, when Obama was on the ticket. Black voters have left the party at a higher rate than white voters, in fact.
This decline is part of a larger trend over recent decades. CES data shows Americans becoming disillusioned with the two major parties. However, this shift does not mean that Black voters are switching their alliance to the Republican Party. Figure 2, below, shows little net change in the number of Black GOP voters, from 2006 to 2023.
In fact, Black Republican affiliation in 2024 is exactly the same as it was when Obama was elected in 2008 – for women and for men, as Figure 3 shows. Moreover, more than 90% of Black voters still supported the eventual Democratic candidate in each subsequent election.
Although explanations abound in terms of why the party switch occurred, one argument, the relative advantage theory, posits that the increased mobilization of Black voters led to moderate and conservative white voters fleeing a party that no longer represented their interests. All told, Black voters are now not only the backbone of the Democratic Party across the country, but they are absolutely critical to the Democratic Party’s success in the South. In other words, without the support of Black voters, Democratic candidates for high-profile office don’t win.
Since 2012, Black men have been drifting rightward ever so slightly in each election, the data suggest. However, this trend is nowhere near as large as recent accounts have suggested. Further, a number of polls reference “men under the age of 50,” an atypical category for survey data. A more typical lineup of generational categories would include age brackets like this: 18 to 24, 25 to 34, 35 to 44, etc. Strategies based on established political theories and statistical best practices underlie these polling decisions so it is important to consider what such a broad age range of Black voters can tell us about anticipating future voting behavior.
Polling that focuses on swing state voters, while vital for Electoral College projections, also has important implications for whether we can generalize about Black men nationwide. It’s important for polls to disaggregate Black voters – the findings help dispel the myth of the monolithic Black voter. But we caution that historical patterns do not warrant the recent alarms about Black men leaving the Democratic party.
More than race
Intersectional scholarship, rooted in a Black feminism, is useful in making sense of how identities matter in politics. For Black men, the appeal of electing the first multi-ethnic Black woman president may not be as enticing when Donald Trump is emphasizing hypermasculinity to a group that is disadvantaged by race in a racist society, but advantaged by gender in a patriarchal society. The opportunity to get closer to the center of power – one that is predicated on Whiteness and maleness – may be more important and attractive for some Black men.
Furthermore, research indicates that voters prefer their own raced-gendered in-group. Here’s what that means: Latinx women voters tend to favor Latinx women candidates, for example, while Black men voters support Black men candidates. Voters seek commonality with political candidates, and race-gendered representation preference is highest when both identities converge.
When there is no candidate that shares a voter’s race and gender, voters are more likely to vote for the candidate who shares the same race. This finding explains why the biggest supporters of Black women candidates are Black women, followed by Black men. Thus, not only is the race of the candidate important to Black voters – so is the candidate’s gender. This is especially true in the current presidential race, where Trump’s comments frequently lean into masculinity.
Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making appeals to Black male voters. If Harris wins, it’s important not to laud only Black women for her victory. And it’s equally important not to vilify Black men if she loses next week.
Rather, we should be recalculating why race – that 800-pound gorilla – is allowed to live another day in political analysis. After all, the current scholarship already indicates that Black voters are not a monolithic voting bloc. The evidence presented here suggests that we need a more nuanced understanding of how Black Americans engage in politics. This reconsideration will help to see Black voters outside of a binary: either the saviors of American democracy – or the scapegoats of the Democratic party, when the party falls short.
Nadia E. Brown is professor of government and director of Women’s and Gender Studies at Georgetown University. She is the co-author of “Sister Style“ (Oxford University Press, 2021) and author of “Sisters in the Statehouse” (Oxford University Press, 2014).
Christopher J. Clark is associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina. He is the author of “Gaining Voice” (Oxford University Press, 2019).
Anna M. Mahoney is executive director of the Rockefeller Center for Public Policy and Social Sciences, Dartmouth College. She is the author of “Women Take Their Place in State Legislatures” (Temple University Press, 2018).
Periloux Peay is assistant professor of African American and Africana Studies at the University of Maryland. He is the author of “Incorporation is Not Enough: The Agenda Influence of Black Lawmakers in Congressional Committees” (Cambridge University Press, 2020).
Michael G. Strawbridge is an assistant professor of political science at Washington University in St. Louis.
.jpg){kind=link}