To many in Georgia and elsewhere, the Oct. 26, 2024 parliamentary elections marked a pivotal moment. Would the South Caucasus nation of about 3.8 million people move closer to the European Union and the E.U.’s commitment to the rule of law? Or would Georgians choose the alternative, and veer toward Russia’s more autocratic and illiberal system of governance?
The ruling Georgian Dream party, founded in 2012 by billionaire and former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, won 54% of the votes according to the country’s Central Election Commission. This majority vote share gives Georgian Dream (with 89 of 150 parliamentary seats) and its current prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze the power to run the country for another four years.
Reports of ballot stuffing, assault, and intimidation against voters, vote buying, and other allegations of fraud swiftly emerged. On Oct. 27, tens of thousands of Georgians – many of them young, draped in Georgian, E.U., and even Ukrainian flags – began protesting what they claimed were fraudulent elections. Georgia’s President Salome Zurabishvili – who ran as an independent and has openly confronted the Georgian Dream, but has limited political power under Georgia’s constitution – accused the ruling party of using Russian-style tactics to steal the vote. Zurabishvili called the election results a “total falsification.”
Other leaders have voiced their concern
E.U. and U.S. officials echoed calls by international election observers for a transparent investigation. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urged the government to “respect the fundamental freedoms of all Georgian citizens.” Sweden announced it would cut direct cooperation with the current Georgian government, while Canada revealed a plan to reassess its relationship with the Georgian leadership.
The Georgian Dream party continues to insist that the election was legitimate and that Georgians should accept the results. One party ally is Hungary’s longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who immediately welcomed the election outcome. Orbán, whom many political scientists credit as laying the groundwork for “illiberal democracy” in Hungary, is the current president of the European Union. And Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, called President Zurabishvili a “puppet” and indicated she should be arrested.
The controversial legislation in the lead-up to this election
In May of this year, Georgian Dream lawmakers passed a law requiring nongovernmental organizations that receive more than 20% of their funding from sources outside of Georgia to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power.” The law mirrors the “foreign agents laws” of other authoritarian regimes, including Russia (2012), Hungary (2023), and Kyrgyzstan (2024).
These controversial laws give t governments wide power to target individuals and organizations arbitrarily by imposing audits, fines, and other punishments. Critics of Georgia’s foreign agent law – which many dubbed the “Russian law” – believe the Georgian Dream party will use this legislation to target, punish, and neutralize dissenting and independent voices, including independent election monitors and media outlets. A majority of NGOs in Georgia receive funding from outside donors, including USAID and the European Union.
A major consequence of the law is that it separates Georgia from the west at a time when many Georgians express concern about the looming threat of Russian encroachment. To many Georgians, Russia’s historical pattern of territorial expansion in the region, including its actions in Ukraine and the broader Caucasus, offers an alarming precedent. Since the Russo-Georgian War of 2008, Russia has occupied approximately 20% of Georgian territory in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Large protests in the past two years
A first attempt to pass this legislation in March 2023 led to large street protests in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi and other cities – prompting the Georgian Dream government to retract the proposed bill. Yet the government proposed a very similar bill just one year later, in April 2024, once again sparking massive street protests. These protests spurred a harsh government crackdown, including the deployment of tear gas and water cannons against protesters, and beatings and arrests.
Georgian Dream also introduced two further pieces of legislation this spring, one known colloquially as the “offshore law.” This law passed in April under an accelerated process and allows for untaxed money transfers into Georgia. Many experts see this as a move by Ivanishvili, who remains involved in politics behind the scenes, to bring his assets into Georgia – in the event he is sanctioned by Western institutions. The new law also prompted concerns that others – such as wealthy elites seeking to evade sanctions, or organized crime syndicates — could bring in money of illicit origin and use Georgia as their playground.
Weeks later, parliament approved a package of bills curbing LGBTQ+ rights. These laws reiterate the existing ban on same-sex marriage, gender-affirming surgery, and the spreading of public information on queer topics (similar to Russia’s anti-LGBTQ propaganda law).
What are protesters’ biggest concerns?
These laws, coupled with the disputed election results, leave many Georgians deeply worried about the future of their country. Since 2004, Georgia’s nascent democracy has steadily moved toward greater integration with Europe. In 2014, Georgia was granted an E.U. association deal. Georgians became eligible for visa-free travel to the E.U. in 2016. And in December 2023, Georgia received E.U. candidate status.
According to a 2023 poll by the International Republican Institute, 89% of Georgians support their country joining the E.U. – a level of support that has been documented for many years. Yet the policy moves by the Georgian Dream government represent a direct backsliding in democracy, and a risk to Georgians’ aspirations for E.U. membership and closer ties with the West.
Simply put, the Georgians protesting the election results are worried that the government is bringing their country into the Russian orbit, against the will of the people. At dozens of street protests this past year, protesters called the government “Slaves!” “Russians!” the “Russian Dream,” and chanted “No Russian Law!” and “Where are we going? To Europe!”
The Georgian Dream’s directional turn against the country’s traditional Western allies became clear in 2022 with the Ukraine war. The Georgian Dream-led government refused to join international sanctions against Russia, despite a long history of friendship and solidarity between the Georgian and Ukrainian peoples. For two years, the ruling party has warned the Georgian public about supposed groups trying to force Georgia to open a “second front” against Russia, which they have referred to as the “global war party.” The party claims to be the force keeping Georgia away from war.
Georgians also have reason to worry about the protection of their physical freedoms and safety. Civil rights monitor groups note a number of attacks on opposition leaders, activists, and even their family members, including threats and physical assaults by groups of masked men. Many see these attacks as a government-led intimidation tactic in the run-up to the elections. Most recently, in October, police entered the homes of two Georgian researchers working for the Atlantic Council – a U.S.-based think tank– and confiscated their computers and other materials. The two researchers were investigating Russian disinformation.
What happens next?
Many of the protesters hoped that the laws passed earlier this year – the foreign agents law, offshore law, and anti-LGBTQ law – would have little chance of full implementation if voters had successfully voted the Georgian Dream out of power. But Georgians are now deeply concerned that they have limited power to stop a set of laws that can further limit the activities of the nongovernmental sector – including advocacy groups, professional organizations, universities and other civil society groups. To many Georgians, these restrictions would exacerbate Georgia’s slide away from both the West and democracy.
After 12 years of Georgian Dream rule, Georgia has a fractured opposition, restrictions on civil society operations, and now a fraudulent election. The country remains in the shadow of Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine, yet the pro-Russia Georgian Dream seems to have entrenched its rule… for now, at least. The massive street movements of 2023 and earlier this year failed to achieve a regime change – and now the ballot box hasn’t either.
Alexis Lerner (@postsovietgraf) is an assistant professor of political science at the United States Naval Academy. She is the author of Post-Soviet Graffiti: Free Speech in Authoritarian States (University of Toronto Press, 2025). This article reflects Lerner’s own views and research findings, and not those of the Department of Defense or the United States government.
Arianne Swieca is a communications consultant and digital content creator based in Tbilisi, Georgia.
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