In June 2020, anti-Trump TikTok users orchestrated a mass prank for a Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma. They booked thousands of free tickets they never planned to use – leaving Trump speaking to rows of empty seats. A few months later, the Trump administration tried to ban the popular video app entirely, arguing that the Chinese-owned company’s “data collection threatens to allow the Chinese Communist Party access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information – potentially allowing China to track the locations of Federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail, and conduct corporate espionage.”
By 2025, at the start of his second term, Trump has completely reversed course. When TikTok went dark for 12 hours due to a Biden-era congressional ban, Trump swooped in as its self-proclaimed savior, taking credit for its return.
This TikTok reversal may be less about strategy and more about Trump’s growing alliance with the tech industry. At his inauguration, tech leaders, from TikTok’s Shou Zi Chew to Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, were prominent guests. Beyond these symbolic gestures, Trump has forged substantial alliances with other tech billionaires. One of his top donors, Jeffrey Yass, is a major TikTok investor, while Tesla and X CEO Elon Musk contributed $200 million to support Trump’s campaign.
Yet, whether intentional or not, Trump’s new position on TikTok may prove politically useful. While the Biden administration showed hesitancy about TikTok’s future in America, Trump seized this opportunity to expand his influence in the tech sphere. Framing this as a “rescue” of TikTok from U.S. government overreach helps energize his traditional base – much like televised immigrant deportations. But Trump’s TikTok stance also appeals to a different segment of the population, including younger voters and Democrats who typically aren’t part of his coalition.
Support for TikTok defies traditional political patterns
How do election survey data explain what Trump’s move on TikTok means for his public support? Our analysis draws on preliminary data from the 2024 Cooperative Election Study (CES), which surveys tens of thousands of Americans during each election cycle. The large CES sample size allows us to examine detailed demographic and ideological breakdowns with more precision than most other surveys. The most recent survey asked respondents before the election whether they favored banning TikTok unless China sells it to an American company, with 54% of Americans supporting a ban and 46% opposing it.
As the graph shows, Trump’s pro-TikTok stance appeals to Democrats and independents more than it does Republicans, an inversion of his typical political playbook. Half of Democrats and more than 40% of political independents support keeping the platform operational. Trump’s base shows the lowest enthusiasm – nearly 70% of Republicans actually supported a TikTok ban. For a president who typically champions policies that his core supporters overwhelmingly back, this represents a dramatic departure.
Contrast this with one of Trump’s signature policies – building the border wall – to highlight how unusual his TikTok position is. Building the wall garners 92% support from Republicans. Democrats staunchly reject the border wall, with only about 21% in favor. Independents are more closely divided on this issue, with 61% supporting the wall. This is the Trump strategy we’ve come to expect: Focus on policies that energize his base and alienate Democrats.
Yet just one day into his second term, the TikTok reversal achieved something few Trump moves ever have – genuine cross-partisan agreement. While his immigration policies may deepen political divides, supporting TikTok appears to be a small step towards bridging them. Trump may only have adopted this position because of his Silicon Valley alliances, but supporting TikTok seems to have given him an unprecedented opportunity to reach beyond his base.
The generational breakdown reveals why Trump’s TikTok position could be particularly significant. Young Americans overwhelmingly support keeping the platform operational – nearly 70% of Gen Z users back it (with even higher support among young Democrats). This strong support continues through the millennial generation.
Will Trump’s TikTok pivot have a lasting impact?
In a way, Trump’s move on TikTok is evocative of Bill Clinton appeasing Republicans by taking moderate positions on minor issues like school uniforms. However, it’s important not to overstate the significance of such moves. When we analyze what truly drove presidential vote choice in 2024, our models show that attitudes on banning TikTok barely registered when compared to core political issues like building a wall at the southern border, banning assault rifles, or expanding abortion access.
While Trump’s change of heart on TikTok has garnered unusual cross-partisan support, particularly among younger voters, this appears more politically intriguing than electorally significant. Much like Clinton’s school uniform initiative in the 1990s, Trump’s shift on TikTok may represent an interesting departure from partisan expectations without fundamentally altering voting patterns.
This cross-partisan agreement, moreover, may prove fleeting. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now X) dramatically shifted partisan perceptions of the platform – with Republican approval surging and Democratic support plummeting. And Trump’s embrace of TikTok could also reshape public opinion along familiar partisan lines. Republicans who previously viewed the TikTok platform with skepticism may warm to it now that Trump has positioned himself as its defender. Democratic enthusiasm could cool as the platform becomes increasingly associated with Trump and his allies. When we examine what actually moves voters, Trump’s actions with TikTok are likely to be more symbolically meaningful than electorally significant.
A new kind of Trump strategy?
Rather than sophisticated political maneuvering, the TikTok reversal is likely more straightforward. This rare moment of cross-partisan appeal appears to stem from Trump’s growing entanglement with tech billionaires, which raises questions about the influence of these individuals and their communities on American democracy.
That said, even if unintentional, any cross-partisan news is noteworthy in today’s polarized environment. But history and the importance of the TikTok issue suggest that such moments of agreement on relatively minor issues – while politically interesting – rarely translate into meaningful electoral shifts. As Trump begins his second term, few are likely to remember his TikTok position as a transformative moment in American politics.
Caroline Soler is a recent graduate of Tufts University, majoring in political science and mathematics, and is currently a research associate for the Cooperative Election Study.
Brian Schaffner is the Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies in the Department of Political Science and Tisch College at Tufts University. He also serves as a co-director for the Cooperative Election Study.