How should we think about a mass exodus of Palestinians from Gaza? Elizabeth N. Saunders and Kelly M. Greenhill - October 20, 2023 Governments and non-state actors use mass migration as a tool of war.
What the arrest warrant for Putin really means Kelebogile Zvobgo - October 3, 2023 He may never stand trial, but that’s not all that matters.
Biden called Putin a ‘war criminal.’ That’s risky. Daniel Krcmaric and Alexander Downes - March 24, 2022 Here’s the downside to prosecuting former leaders
Perhaps Putin thinks acting crazy is a good strategy. My research says otherwise. Roseanne W. McManus - March 6, 2022 ‘Madness’ isn’t a common leadership trait
It’s not just a Putin problem. ‘Personalists’ like him are behind much of the world’s bad behavior. Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz - March 1, 2022 Here’s why this style of autocracy is on the rise.
There’s a reason Putin can be so aggressive: Oil. Jeff D. Colgan and Jessica Weeks - February 27, 2022 Putin’s personalist rule leaves few domestic checks on his power.
Are coups really contagious? Salah Ben Hammou and Jonathan Powell - November 21, 2021 The international reaction to a coup attempt may matter more than you think
Many Libyans already dismiss next month’s elections as illegitimate Wolfram Lacher and Emadeddin Badi - November 16, 2021 No prominent candidates appear to have support across Libya’s regional and political divisions.
The E.U. is furious that Belarus allowed more than 4,000 migrants to cross into Europe Gerasimos Tsourapas - August 12, 2021 As countries in the global north outsource refugee management to the global south, expect more poor countries to ‘weaponize’ migration.
Morocco ‘weaponized’ migration to punish Spain. That’s more common than you think. Kelly M. Greenhill - June 1, 2021 My research identified four different approaches to creating ‘weapons of mass migration’
In Europe, former presidents do get sentenced to prison. Sheri Berman - March 4, 2021 It might shock Americans, but convicting political leaders is neither a democratic disaster nor democracy's salvation.
The International Criminal Court just elected a new chief prosecutor. Here’s what you need to know. Nastaran Far, Hailey Robertson, and Kelebogile Zvobgo - February 16, 2021 The ICC’s future will rest on the new prosecutor’s success in opening, trying and closing cases — and being fair
It’s been 10 years since the Arab Spring. Why did people protest then — and not now? Stephanie Dornschneider - February 15, 2021 Egyptians are facing much the same conditions: military rule, harsh repression and economic difficulties. Here’s what makes the difference.
Why was Mali hit with another coup? Joe Gazeley - August 20, 2020 A bloated military makes the country particularly vulnerable
Armed rebel groups lobby in D.C., just like governments. How does that influence U.S. policy? Reyko Huang - February 6, 2020 They push for funding and recognition, and often get it
Could U.S. actions topple Iran’s government? Alexander Downes - January 11, 2020 Here’s why it would be extremely difficult.
Russia wants more influence in Africa. It’s using disinformation to get there. Shelby Grossman - December 2, 2019 Facebook says the oligarch behind the Internet Research Agency is involved.
Is China’s influence at the United Nations all it’s cracked up to be? Courtney J. Fung - October 6, 2019 Here are five things to know
Syrian refugees have become pawns in their host nations’ politics Gerasimos Tsourapas - June 14, 2019 Certain states are using their position to secure unearned external income — refugee rent.
Trump changed U.S. policy toward Libya. This is why it matters. Mieczysław P. Boduszyński and Christopher K. Lamont - May 2, 2019 The Trump administration’s about-face on Libya leaves few options in the face of a dramatic escalation of violence.
Think Libya’s warring factions are only in it for the money? Think again. Wolfram Lacher - April 10, 2019 Why Khalifa Hifter (and Western governments) misjudged the reaction Hifter’s grab at Tripoli would provoke in western Libya
Does the decline of U.S. power matter for the Middle East? Marc Lynch - March 19, 2019 Perceived or not, declining American primacy has real effects.
In Canada, two of Justin Trudeau’s ministers resigned. Let’s catch up on this scandal. Tyler Kustra - March 6, 2019 Jody Wilson-Raybould, pictured with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in
Four reasons it’ll be hard to offer Maduro a golden parachute (and one reason to try anyway) Zacc Ritter, Daniel Krcmaric, Ariya Hagh, and Andrew Bennett - January 26, 2019 [caption id="attachment_83142" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A Venezuelan opposition supporter holds a
Is protest a safety valve against ISIS in Tunisia? Neil Ketchley and Christopher Barrie - December 10, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81311" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Tunisian army troops patrol the streets
How authoritarian regimes use migration to exert ‘soft power’ in foreign policy Gerasimos Tsourapas - July 6, 2018 [caption id="attachment_75407" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has
The Singapore summit’s three big takeaways Mira Rapp-Hooper - June 12, 2018 [caption id="attachment_74419" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump and North Korean leader
Promises on North Korea are easy to make but hard to keep. Here’s why. Andrew Kydd - June 7, 2018 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A commemorative coin featuring President Trump
Making sense of the canceled North Korea summit Matthew Kroenig - May 25, 2018 [caption id="attachment_73812" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A combination photo shows President Trump
Will toughness on Iran help Trump with North Korea? Here are three reasons to doubt it. James Lebovic - May 21, 2018 [caption id="attachment_73598" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People watch a TV report about
This is why North Korea reacted so strongly to Bolton’s mention of the ‘Libya model’ Elizabeth N. Saunders - May 17, 2018 [caption id="attachment_73514" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People watch a TV screen showing
Why Russia is openly violating sanctions against North Korea Samuel Ramani - April 23, 2018 [caption id="attachment_72203" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Maxim Shipenkov/Pool/AP)[/caption]
Should the Obama administration have made different decisions about Syria? This is what a controversial study found. Mona Yacoubian - April 2, 2018 [caption id="attachment_71701" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Civilians flee from reported regime airstrikes
Why North Korea succeeded at getting nuclear weapons — when Iraq and Libya failed Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer - January 2, 2018 North Korea was considered too poor, authoritarian and vulnerable to
Trump’s criticism of the Iran nuclear deal may only lead to more nuclear weapons Nicholas Miller - October 6, 2017 [caption id="attachment_63941" align="aligncenter" width="960"] News reports suggest that the Trump
Will the International Criminal Court’s latest target in Libya be brought to justice? Mark Kersten - August 31, 2017 [caption id="attachment_63104" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Armed Libyan men wave their national
The big problem with the North Koreans isn’t that we can’t trust them. It’s that they can’t trust us. - August 16, 2017 [caption id="attachment_62420" align="aligncenter" width="960"] South Korean Army K1A1 and U.S.
Three big lessons of the Qatar crisis Marc Lynch - July 14, 2017 [caption id="attachment_60977" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Qatar's foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin
Where are Europe’s illegal migrants coming from? Surprise: It’s Bangladesh. Nayma Qayum - May 19, 2017 [caption id="attachment_58568" align="alignleft" width="960"] A rescuer with the Malta-based NGO
Morocco just joined the African Union. Here’s why that matters. Hannah Armstrong - February 20, 2017 [caption id="attachment_54370" align="aligncenter" width="960"] The king of Morocco, Mohammed VI,
Where do ousted dictators go? Fewer countries now offer a warm welcome. Daniel Krcmaric and Abel Escribà-Folch - January 30, 2017 [caption id="attachment_53276" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Gambia's defeated president, Yahya Jammeh, left
Why some dictators are more likely to get nuclear weapons. 5 lessons from Iraq and Libya. Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer - October 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47601" align="aligncenter" width="960"] U.N. safety inspectors from the International
That brief U.S.-Russia strategic partnership 15 years ago? New interviews reveal why it derailed. Andrew Kuchins - September 23, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46757" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Russian President Vladimir Putin talks with
Why it’s good for dictators to have dictator friends Oisín Tansey, Kevin Koehler, and Alexander Schmotz - September 15, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46240" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, welcomes
Hissène Habré, Chad’s former dictator, just got a life sentence for crimes he committed in the 1980s Oumar Ba - June 1, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41445" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former Chadian dictator Hissène Habré, leaving
Why unarmed revolutions topple some dictators but not others Daniel Ritter - May 13, 2016 [caption id="attachment_40505" align="aligncenter" width="908"] An anti-government protester flashes a V
Why the United States hasn’t intervened in Syria Steven Heydemann - March 14, 2016 [caption id="attachment_37157" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Secretary of State John Kerry looks
These 5 things help make sense of North Korea’s nuclear tests and missile launch Samuel Ramani - February 18, 2016 On Jan. 7, 2016, North Korea’s state media shocked the
Yes, the U.S. and Russia can cooperate to end the Syrian civil war. Here’s why. Yoshiko Herrera, Fyodor Lukyanov, and Andrew Kydd - February 17, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35862" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Children peer from a partially destroyed
Why Libya’s transition to democracy failed Frederic Wehrey - February 17, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35888" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Libyans wave Kingdom of Libya flags
Daniel Drezner says Donald Trump is the champion of foreign policy ‘realism.’ He’s wrong. It’s Barack Obama. Joshua Rovner - February 11, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35605" align="aligncenter" width="908"] An American bald eagle prepares to
The U.S. can’t fight terrorists in Africa. So guess what it does instead. Charles Thomas - February 1, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35026" align="aligncenter" width="908"] A crashed MQ-9 Reaper drone seen
The Responsibility to Protect doctrine is faltering. Here’s why. Mark Kersten - December 8, 2015 [caption id="attachment_33247" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Residents inspect damage from what activists
Why France is so deeply entangled in Syria Samuel Ramani - November 19, 2015 On Nov. 14, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad declared that French
The UN wants to end Libya’s civil war. Here’s the big challenge they face. Wolfram Lacher - November 5, 2015 [caption id="attachment_31744" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Libyan protesters shout slogans during a
When he bombs Syria, Putin is sending these four messages to the world Samuel Ramani - October 21, 2015 On Sept. 30, the Russian Parliament unanimously approved the use
Sudan, South Africa and the future of the International Criminal Court in Africa Mark Kersten - October 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_30589" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (C) seen
The Arab uprisings as international relations Marc Lynch - September 17, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29517" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Secretary of State John Kerry, second
A provocative article says the Islamic State is a mystery. Here's why that's wrong. - August 27, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28953" align="aligncenter" width="908"] In this June 23, 2014, file
A provocative article says the Islamic State is a mystery. Here’s why that’s wrong. Costantino Pischedda - August 27, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28953" align="aligncenter" width="908"] In this June 23, 2014, file
Can there be good Middle Eastern state-owned enterprises? Abdulwahab Alkebsi - May 7, 2015 [caption id="attachment_24407" align="aligncenter" width="620" class="center"] A June 23, 2008 file
A bold new Arab vision…for 2009 Marc Lynch - March 31, 2015 [caption id="attachment_23239" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud
News coverage of civil conflict is biased in both democracies and autocracies Yuri Zhukov and Matthew Baum - February 26, 2015 [caption id="attachment_21909" align="alignnone" width="620"] Egyptians queue up with
In Libya, will Misrata be the kingmaker? Brian McQuinn - February 24, 2015 [caption id="attachment_21715" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Fighters from the Fajr Libya (Libya
Deradicalization revisited Omar Ashour - February 18, 2015 [caption id="attachment_21457" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Religious, political and law enforcement leaders
Could a U.N.-brokered pact save Libya? Ben Fishman - January 22, 2015 [caption id="attachment_20374" align="aligncenter" width="620"] A member of the Libyan pro-government
Is it possible to meet the 'Responsibility to Protect'? - December 9, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18867" align="aligncenter" width="620"] British warplanes struck a large bunker
Is it possible to meet the ‘Responsibility to Protect’? Roland Paris - December 9, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18867" align="aligncenter" width="620"] British warplanes struck a large bunker
Militaries, civilians and the crisis of the Arab state Yezid Sayigh - December 8, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18780" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Iraqi soldiers parade inside the main
Elite fragmentation and securitization in Bahrain Toby Matthiesen - December 5, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18700" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Riot police line up to block
The resurgence of Arab militaries Robert Springborg - December 5, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18665" align="aligncenter" width="620"] A supporter of Egyptian President Abdel
Reflections on the Arab uprisings Marc Lynch - November 17, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18237" align="aligncenter" width="5616"] Egyptian anti-government protesters chant slogans as
Burkina Faso and the growing vulnerability of autocrats to revolt Erica Frantz and Andrea Kendall-Taylor - November 12, 2014 [caption id="attachment_17975" align="alignnone" width="620"] Troops face protestors on October 30,
Burkina Faso’s uprising part of an ongoing wave of African protests Zachariah Mampilly - November 2, 2014 In 1984, a year after coming to power at the
Is Libya a proxy war? Frederic Wehrey - October 24, 2014 [caption id="attachment_17106" align="aligncenter" width="620"] The remains of a burnt airplane
What’s behind Libya’s spiraling violence? Frederic Wehrey - July 28, 2014 In a region with no shortage of human catastrophes, Libya
What really made the Arab uprisings contagious? Merouan Mekouar - June 13, 2014 [caption id="attachment_11833" align="aligncenter" width="460" special=""] Egyptian anti-government protesters gather at
The stakes and symbolism of voting from abroad Laurie Brand - June 5, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Syrian nationals living in Lebanon
The ICC may not bring justice to Syria Mark Kersten - May 12, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] People inspect a site hit
How oil wealth can make Russia and other countries less cooperative Michael Ross and Erik Voeten - April 30, 2014 Many observers are puzzled by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s belligerent
Autocrats now more vulnerable to being ousted by revolt Erica Frantz and Andrea Kendall-Taylor - April 9, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] (Miguel Gutierrez/EPA) Opposition demonstrators clash
Petro-aggression: How Russia's oil makes war more likely Jeff Colgan - April 1, 2014 [caption id="attachment_8839" align="aligncenter" width="620" special=""] The Trans-Siberian Pipeline, Russia's main
Petro-aggression: How Russia’s oil makes war more likely Jeff Colgan - April 1, 2014 [caption id="attachment_8839" align="aligncenter" width="620" special=""] The Trans-Siberian Pipeline, Russia's main
Why the Modest Harvest of the Arab Spring? Joshua Tucker - October 21, 2013 Joshua Tucker: The following is a guest post from political
Why is Syria So Important to Russia and Putin? Joshua Tucker - September 5, 2013 The following is a guest post from UCLA political scientist
The Unintended Consequences of an Oil Embargo on Iran Erik Voeten - January 6, 2012 We are delighted to welcome the following guest post by
Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and the Fate of Dictators Joshua Tucker - January 4, 2012 As part of our continuing relationship with section newsletters of
Why Didn’t Qaddafi go into exile? Erik Voeten - October 25, 2011 Below are some thoughts on Qaddafi's death and his decision
More on Qadaffi’s Death: Violent Leader Removal Increases Likelihood of Democratization Joshua Tucker - October 21, 2011 In response to my request for research on the effect
Qaddafi is Dead. Does it Matter for Libya’s Future? Joshua Tucker - October 20, 2011 The NY Times is reporting that Muammar Qaddafi is dead.
The Dictator’s Handbook I: Gaddafi’s Failing? Too Kind Joshua Tucker - September 26, 2011 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and "Alastair Smith":http://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/161039044X are professors of
Putin in 2012: Expert Analysis Joshua Tucker - September 26, 2011 Following up on my "previous post":http://tmc.org/blog/2011/09/25/putin-in-2012-guest-commentary-2/, here are a number
This Week in Political Science Jonathan Robinson - September 13, 2011 ANATOMY OF THE 9/11 RALLY EFFECT. The increase in support
What to Watch in Libya in the Coming Months (and Years) Joshua Tucker - August 22, 2011 From the perspective of someone who knows little about Libya
Request for Guest Post from Libya Experts? Joshua Tucker - August 21, 2011 Things are picking up in "Tripoli today":http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/21/world/africa/21libya.html?partner=rss&emc=rss, and it is
Lots of Buzz about Drones Erica Chenoweth - June 22, 2011 The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal have
Civil War and Mission Creep in Libya Erik Voeten - April 8, 2011 Below is another guest post from "James Fearon":http://www.stanford.edu/~jfearon/. Jim wrote
It’s So Hard to Say Good-Bye (to Rogue Dictators) John Sides - April 5, 2011 bq. Today, hope abounds that the pressure is getting to
Qaddafi-wise, I’m (retrospectively) pure! Andrew Gelman - March 30, 2011 I happened to be going through some old blog entries