Almost all Republicans will vote for Trump this fall Michael Tesler - January 25, 2024 Ignore recent exit polls to the contrary. Minds will change by November.
Iowa showed how Trump has redefined conservatism Michael Tesler - January 17, 2024 Trump performed much better among “very conservative” caucus voters than he did in 2016.
The myth of Mitt Romney’s 47% comment won’t die John Sides - November 27, 2023 No, this gaffe didn’t cost Romney the election.
The remarkable rise of isolationist Republicans Michael Tesler - September 20, 2023 Trump’s rise has turned back the clock to the 1930s.
Most Republicans ignored constituents’ opinions on marriage equality Andrew R. Flores - August 15, 2022 In roughly 90 percent of U.S. congressional districts, a majority support marriage rights for same-sex couples, my research finds. So why didn’t more Republicans vote in favor?
Why people are fighting over Social Security numbers Joshua McCabe - July 19, 2022 Liberal groups don’t like Mitt Romney’s proposal to limit who gets tax credits designed to help lift children from poverty
Will Pennsylvania vote for a Harvard grad with a working-class image? Thomas Gift - May 26, 2022 The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, John Fetterman, is cultivating an unpretentious image. Here’s what the research says.
Americans supported Jackson. Why didn’t more Republican senators? Sarah Binder - April 8, 2022 Partisan fights have become the norm in Supreme Court nominations
Why aren’t Americans rallying around Biden during a war? Peter Enns and Douglas Kriner - April 4, 2022 Encouraged by some of their leaders, more Republicans disapprove of Biden than Democrats disapprove of Trump.
In words and deeds, Putin shows he’s rejecting even Soviet-era borders Daniel Treisman - February 25, 2022 His speech this week makes it clear he’s out to restore “historic Russia”
Politics is still local. When incumbents face off in redrawn districts, community ties make a big difference. Charles Hunt - November 29, 2021 Yes, party matters. But so do incumbents’ deep ties to their districts.
Olympic officials resisted pressure to ban Iran from the Tokyo Games, but they’ve banned teams before Thandiwe Keet, Andrew Bertoli, and Aleksandra Smajevic - July 27, 2021 In these 9 cases, sporting authorities tried to ban a country from international competition — sometimes for years
Trump didn’t bring White working-class voters to the Republican Party. The data suggests he kept them away. Noam Lupu and Nicholas Carnes - April 14, 2021 White working-class voters had been moving to the Republican Party for years. Trump stopped the trend.
Americans are divided over boycotting the 2022 Beijing Olympics. Here’s the data. Craig Kafura - April 11, 2021 Many Americans later regretted the decision not to participate in the 1980 Moscow Summer Olympics
Biden’s pandemic rescue plan may help get White people to trust the government. People like benefits they can see. Aaron Rosenthal - March 26, 2021 Delivering benefits through tax policy hides them from view.
Rubio attacked Romney’s child allowance proposal as ‘welfare.’ Why are conservatives fighting over family support? Joshua McCabe and Elizabeth Popp Berman - February 9, 2021 Pandemic’s economic impact may have changed politics of helping poor
Why Republicans haven’t abandoned Trumpism Pippa Norris - February 8, 2021 Parties can and do change. But these four barriers stand between the Republican Party and moderation.
One in four Latinos voted for Trump last time. They’ll likely do so again. David Leal and Álvaro J. Corral - November 1, 2020 The Latino groups that lean Republican are the segments that are growing
Republicans’ Supreme Court gambit may backfire. Here’s how. Robinson Woodward-Burns - September 23, 2020 Democrats can play constitutional hardball, too
Three things to know about military endorsements for the 2020 campaign Zachary E. Griffiths and Michael Robinson - August 28, 2020 Retired military figures offer endorsements in every presidential election. But these testimonials may not have much effect.
What helps non-black people support Black Lives Matter? A signal from someone in their own ethnic group. Maneesh Arora, Kelsy Kretschmer, and Christopher Stout - June 17, 2020 Our surveys uncover how this messaging works
#NeverTrump conservatives want to shape the Republicans — and the Democrats, too Henry Farrell - June 6, 2020 In 2016, they tried to persuade Mattis to run against Trump.
Here’s why black Americans were mad at Biden’s comment — even if they’d say the same thing themselves Julian J. Wamble, Ismail K. White, and Chryl N. Laird - May 27, 2020 Black Americans enforce party loyalty on behalf of the group. Whites can’t do the same.
Under Trump, Democrats and Republicans have never been more divided — on nearly everything Larry Bartels - May 20, 2020 And they are holding tightly to their party identities
The Wisconsin primary had extraordinarily high voter turnout Richard H. Pildes and Charles Stewart III - April 15, 2020 We analyzed this two ways. The result was the same: Unexpectedly high rates of voting, despite the chaos.
Whether it’s from the Oscars or ‘The Apprentice,’ celebrity candidates get a boost. Here’s how we know. Lauren Wright - February 13, 2020 It’s more than putting a face to the name
Romney’s not really alone. Republican senators were ready to oust Nixon in 1974. von Hippel - February 11, 2020 That’s why Nixon resigned first.
The Republican Party is white and Southern. How did that happen? Jeffery Jenkins and Boris Heersink - February 7, 2020 Its leaders made a decision to push out blacks. That helped it to dominate Southern politics.
Has Trump’s approval rating really shot up to 49 percent? Probably not. Jacob Long - February 6, 2020 More Republicans — and fewer Democrats — are responding to pollsters. That could skew the results.
Mitt Romney changed the impeachment story, all by himself. Here are 3 reasons that matters. Sarah Binder - February 5, 2020 That’s unusual for a lone politician in our partisan era.
For the Super Bowl, Bloomberg and Trump are each spending $10 million on ads. Travis N. Ridout and Erika Franklin Fowler - February 1, 2020 How unusual is it for a contender for a party’s presidential nomination to drop so much cash on a single ad? Very.
Bolton has disrupted the Senate impeachment trial. What happens now? Sarah Binder - January 29, 2020 So much for Mitch McConnell’s plans for a swift acquittal.
What to expect when you’re expecting a Senate impeachment trial Steven Smith - January 10, 2020 Yes, there are some rules. The Senate can change them.
Incumbent presidents usually get more popular when they run for reelection. Will Trump? John Sides - January 6, 2020 Trump’s best-case scenario could be what happened to Barack Obama.
Trump is moving to secure the Polish American vote in 2020. Here’s how. Dominik Stecula - October 11, 2019 Key counties in swing states have large concentrations of Polish American voters
Political science professors assign fewer readings by women than by men. Here’s why that matters. Heidi Hardt and Amy Erica Smith - August 20, 2019 Here’s the third article in our series on the gender gap in political science.
Who’s winning the Democratic debates? Here’s what Google search trends can’t tell you. Filippo Trevisan - July 30, 2019 What do those search spikes really mean, anyway?
What Roy Moore tells us about the Republican Party David A. Hopkins - June 26, 2019 Who leads political parties these days?
Can Trump still install a loyalist at the Fed? Mark Spindel and Sarah Binder - May 6, 2019 Maybe. But he has to choose them a little more carefully.
Once, the ‘Judeo-Christian tradition’ united Americans. Now it divides them. Anna Grzymala-Busse - April 17, 2019 The Judeo-Christian tradition has become a partisan catchphrase.
The Senate voted to block Trump’s national emergency declaration. Now what? Sarah Binder - March 15, 2019 Here are 3 takeaways from Congress’s highly unusual rebuke.
Republicans in Wisconsin and Michigan want to weaken incoming Democratic governors. Here’s what’s the usual partisan politics — and what isn’t. Matt Glassman - December 11, 2018 Last week, lame-duck Republican state legislatures in Wisconsin and Michigan
How Donald Trump appeals to men secretly insecure about their manhood Eric Knowles and Sarah DiMuccio - November 29, 2018 From boasting about the size of his penis on national
What Cindy Hyde-Smith’s victory in Mississippi tells us about the South Seth McKee - November 29, 2018 [caption id="" align="alignnone" width="3606"] Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) celebrates her
Want a less partisan senator? Elect a former governor. Misty Knight-Finley and Alex Keena - July 31, 2018 [caption id="attachment_76207" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former GOP presidential nominee and current
Free trade is becoming more popular — especially among Republicans Diana Mutz - November 17, 2017 [caption id="attachment_66375" align="aligncenter" width="960"] U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer,
Does the Republican Party really have a young person problem? Deborah Schildkraut - October 6, 2017 [caption id="attachment_64614" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Students in the Congressional Page program
In the U.S., who votes and why? Here’s how the Constitution shapes the answers. Andrew Rudalevige - August 25, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59973" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A Fairfax County Democratic Committee sign
Trump shifted gears on Afghanistan — but what role do foreign policy advisers play? Here’s what the research says. Elizabeth N. Saunders - August 23, 2017 [caption id="attachment_62694" align="aligncenter" width="960"] This image released by the
Here’s what white supremacy looks and sounds like now. (It’s not your grandfather’s KKK.) Daniel Kreiss and Kelsey Mason - August 17, 2017 In a remarkable exchange with the press Tuesday about the
Trump raided Congress for his Cabinet, giving us four special elections. Will that hurt Republicans? Jessica Gerrity and Brendan Doherty - June 16, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59960" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican Karen Handel, left, and Democrat
How attitudes about gender may have helped Hillary Clinton in 2016 Marianne Stewart and Harold Clarke - June 12, 2017 [caption id="attachment_49049" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton
Trump’s nominations for U.S. ambassador are hardly draining the swamp Dennis Jett - May 22, 2017 [caption id="attachment_58630" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former senator Scott Brown speaks in Nashua,
Gun ownership used to be bipartisan. Not anymore. Mark Joslyn and Don Haider-Markel - May 9, 2017 [caption id="attachment_58017" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump speaks during the National
Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted. Sean McElwee, Jesse Rhodes, Brian Schaffner, and Bernard Fraga - May 8, 2017 [caption id="attachment_57944" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton arrive at the
Americans are proud to pay taxes — except when they think others are cheating. Vanessa Williamson - April 18, 2017 [caption id="attachment_56970" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Due to the Emancipation Day holiday,
Trump’s plan to roll back Medicaid will especially affect his voters Francesco Ruggieri, Federico Ferrara, and Andrea Cerrato - January 27, 2017 [caption id="attachment_53153" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Senate Minority Leader Charles E.
Donald Trump will probably be the most ridiculed president ever Stephen Farnsworth, Robert Lichter, and Deanne Canieso - January 21, 2017 Donald Trump takes office as the most ridiculed presidential candidate
How people’s sensitivity to threats illuminates the rise of Donald Trump John Hibbing - December 23, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49426" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump, speaking aboard the World
Here’s the real reason Rust Belt cities and towns voted for Trump Josh Pacewicz - December 20, 2016 Donald Trump won the 2016 election largely because he carried
Why there’s a battle royale to lead the Democratic Party, and what it means for the Trump era Boris Heersink - December 19, 2016 After a bruising election year, both the Democratic and Republican
Trump’s secretary of state pick could give Putin some very unfortunate ideas Jeff Colgan - December 13, 2016 Donald Trump has apparently chosen Rex Tillerson, chief executive of
An underappreciated fact about the 2016 election: The massive generation gap David A. Hopkins - December 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47860" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Hillary Clinton supporters cheer the Democratic
Voters actually don’t prefer wealthy politicians Noam Lupu and Nicholas Carnes - December 6, 2016 [caption id="attachment_50682" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A man votes at City Hall
Donald Trump did not win 34% of Latino vote in Texas. He won much less. Francisco Pedraza and Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta - December 2, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47873" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Fabiola Vejar, right, registers Stephanie Cardenas
We checked Trump’s allegations of voter fraud. We found no evidence at all. Sean Westwood, Michael Herron, and David Cottrell - December 2, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49957" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks
How the tea party learned to love Donald Trump Elizabeth Yates - December 1, 2016 [caption id="attachment_50280" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump speaks at a tea
Want to know if the Trump administration will lurch into radicalism? Don’t look at Trump. Sheri Berman - November 29, 2016 [caption id="attachment_50222" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Campaign Against Racism and Fascism (CARF)
Views about race mattered more in electing Trump than in electing Obama Michael Tesler - November 22, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49986" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] In this photo taken Nov. 10,
The county-by-county data on Trump voters shows why he won Loren Collingwood - November 19, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49810" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters cheer as they wait for
Polls may be making voters worse at predicting elections Benjamin Toff - November 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49060" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Voters wait in line to cast
Secular voters didn’t turn out for Clinton the way white evangelicals did for Trump Mark Brockway, Geoffrey Layman, and David Campbell - November 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49753" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Worshipers pray during a service at
Rural Hispanic voters — like white rural voters — shifted toward Trump. Here’s why. Geraldo Cadava - November 17, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49732" align="aligncenter" width="960"] undefined[/caption] Many observers contend that Hispanic
Trump got more votes from people of color than Romney did. Here’s the data. Karthick Ramakrishnan - November 11, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49295" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters cheer for President-elect Donald Trump
In record numbers, Latinos voted overwhelmingly against Trump. We did the research. Matt A. Barreto and Gabriel Sanchez - November 11, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49349" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump rides an escalator to
2016 was an ordinary election, not a realignment Larry Bartels - November 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49160" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton face
Five key lessons from Donald Trump’s surprising victory John Sides - November 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49232" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives
Why it can be rational to vote Andrew Gelman - November 8, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49104" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Wristbands for voters in Chicago. (Jim
Everyone is sure their side is going to win, even when it loses big. Here’s how we know. Ryan Enos and Eitan Hersh - November 7, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49082" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters cheer as Republican presidential candidate
Hillary Clinton would win in Australia, New Zealand, England, Canada, France, Mexico and Germany. But not Russia. Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies, and David Rothschild - November 7, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49048" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton meets
‘Low information voters’ are a crucial part of Trump’s support Sanford Schram and Richard Fording - November 7, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49038" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks
Who’s voting early? Latino turnout is surging, but white turnout is, too. Brian Schaffner and Bernard Fraga - November 4, 2016 [caption id="attachment_48973" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Voters walk into a polling site
When evangelical clergy oppose Trump, their flocks listen. But they’re not speaking up. Paul Djupe, Andrew Lewis, Anand Sokhey, and Amanda Friesen - November 4, 2016 [caption id="attachment_48917" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (iStock)[/caption] Although Donald Trump is doing
Early voting predict who wins. This is good news for Democrats. Brian Schaffner and Anthony Rentsch - November 1, 2016 Early voting in the 2016 election is underway in many
How incumbency, not gerrymandering, may protect the Republican House majority Michael Barber - October 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_3720" align="aligncenter" width="606"] (Susan Walsh/AP)[/caption] As we enter the
China’s state-run media favors Clinton over Trump Erin Carter - October 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_48476" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Obama and Chinese President Xi
How sexism drives support for Donald Trump Nicholas Valentino, Marzia Oceno, and Carly Wayne - October 23, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47792" align="aligncenter" width="960"] In this 2005 frame from a
Will Republican voters flee Trump, post-video? Here’s what we found. Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies, and David Rothschild - October 14, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47792" align="aligncenter" width="960"] In this 2005 frame from a
Evangelical voters will almost surely vote for Donald Trump. Here’s why. Paul Goren and Christopher Chapp - October 3, 2016 For at least three decades, the Republican Party has won
Here’s what a study of Russian business leaders in politics can tell us about Donald Trump David Szakonyi - September 29, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46983" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Steaks described as “Trump meat” are
Forget Trump’s temperament and Clinton’s stamina. Voters care less and less about candidates’ personalities Martin Wattenberg - September 29, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46891" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump debated
Here are 5 keys to watching Monday night’s debate between Clinton and Trump John Sides - September 26, 2016 Monday night's presidential debate — or the "Clash of the Century,"
Birtherism was why so many Republicans liked Trump in the first place Michael Tesler - September 19, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46466" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks
Trump is right. Let’s get moderators out of the debates. Jesse Richman - September 15, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46222" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and
A politician walks into a joke. Does she get elected? Amy Becker - September 14, 2016 [caption id="attachment_46180" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Actress Tina Fey, left, plays Sarah
How many votes will Trump give up by not running a professional campaign? A lot. John Sides - August 25, 2016 [caption id="attachment_45706" align="aligncenter" width="1795"] Donald Trump's campaign headquarters. (Alison Elkin/Bloomberg
Will Donald Trump succeed in stoking fears of a media conspiracy? Joseph Uscinski - August 24, 2016 [caption id="attachment_45311" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump speaks during a campaign
Donald Trump is making the border wall less popular Michael Tesler - August 16, 2016 When Donald Trump announced his campaign for president, he famously
White Christian America is dying John Sides - August 15, 2016 Robert P. Jones is the founding CEO of the Public
A racially diverse America could make the economy less important to elections Michael Tesler - August 12, 2016 [caption id="attachment_17379" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Harry Cabluck/AP Photo)[/caption] Last month’s Democratic