Anti-government protests erupted across Iraq on Oct. 1 as mostly Shiite youth protesters took to the streets to denounce corruption, unemployment and deficient state services. Security forces violently suppressed the leaderless demonstrations, resulting in 149 dead and thousands wounded.
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has since introduced reform packages and began an investigation into the killings. Many, however, regard reform efforts and the committee’s investigation as insufficient and plan to take to the streets again Friday.
Protests first concentrated in central squares of Baghdad until security forces pushed them into Sadr City, a mostly poor district of Baghdad governorate and home to almost half of the governorate’s 8 million inhabitants. Mostly Shiite Arab, it’s estimated that approximately 70 percent of residents are affiliated with influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his clerics. Although he doesn’t hold a position in government, many of the residents support his Sadrist movement political party, with its armed wing, Saraya al-Salam, operating as a de facto authority in several key neighborhoods.
Critical of the security forces’ crackdown on the protests, Sadr demanded the government’s resignation and suspended his group’s political engagement with parliament. Sadrists and their allies form the Sairoon Alliance, enjoying strong support across the country with 54 seats in parliament. On Oct. 19, Sadr issued a statement telling followers “it’s your right” to continue protests on Oct. 25 if desired. He stopped short of explicitly instructing his followers to protest, leading many to speculate over his next move.
Based on my research and recent interviews in Sadr City, here’s what to watch for as the anti-government movement develops.
Sadr may seek to co-opt the protests but will struggle to fully portray himself as a government outsider.
While the protests remain a grass-roots movement, Sadr and his allies are a formidable force capable of affecting its trajectory. Sadr City residents previously protested in large numbers and sustained a high number of casualties, stoking anger among its residents.
Iraqi protests have a history of co-optation. Sadr’s co-optation of the 2016 anti-government protests in particular worries activists who fear that he may attempt to co-opt their movement now. The vagueness of Sadr’s Oct. 19 statement allows the cleric to straddle the line between directing protests and distancing himself from protests if and when it’s politically expedient.
Some protesters welcome his show of support, hoping Sadrists’ presence will protect them from further deadly violence. Others, such as one sheikh from Sadr City, believe there to be an agreement between Sadr and ruling parties to enter the street demonstrations to sabotage them.
Sadr supporters, including one from the Baghdad provincial council, reject such accusations, saying Sadr is the voice of the oppressed and acts on their demands, not the other way around. When asked how Sadr can be both against the government and a part of it, he said Sadrists are only members of parliament and the blame is on those with executive power. “Sadrists waived their right to appoint ministers in favor of installing technocrats.” Critics note that such technocrat ministers still informally report to Sadrists.
While Sadr maintains a broad base of support, increasingly some Iraqis, especially non-politically affiliated protesters, do not trust him.
The high death count among Sadr’s followers is aggravating long-standing intra-Shiite power struggles.
Attempts by some to tarnish protesters as Baathists anger all but especially Sadr supporters, who routinely affirm their nationalist, populist credentials vis-a-vis other Shiite political movements. Discrediting other Shiite politicians as “naturalized Iranians,” one Sadr follower in Sadr City said: “Unlike others who fled to Iran, we stayed and sacrificed lots of martyrs over the years. We fought Saddam Hussein, the U.S.-led coalition, ISIS, and now the corrupt Iraqi government. We are not afraid.” Such sentiments should be analyzed within the context of the broader intra-Shiite struggle for power and, in particular, Sadr’s long-standing tension with Iranian-aligned political parties.
Further aggravating intra-Shiite tensions, some Iranian-aligned paramilitary groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — an umbrella organization of armed groups institutionalized by the Iraqi parliament in 2016 — were allegedly complicit in the deadly suppression of protesters.
In Iraq, demonstrators demand change — and the government fights back
Accessing justice from the state for those killed in protests will be a challenge.
Sadr City’s population is distributed based on tribal affiliation. However, residents are unlikely to turn to tribes to inflict violent tribal justice. Most tribal leaders in the area are co-opted through party politics and any major moves would likely require political approval.
Because the state security is the perpetrator of protest violence, not the tribes, demands for justice and accountability are directed toward the state.
The Iraqi government has announced that families of killed protesters will be eligible for state funds allotted to martyrs, but many see this as insufficient.
“There was a war in Hamza square,” one protester said, referencing a neighborhood in Sadr City where many protesters were killed. “The state kills dozens of us and we are just supposed to be quiet and accept money?” asked a grieving mother of a protester killed in Sadr City.
Impunity is rife in Iraq and expectations for justice are limited. Still, people vow to continue demanding their rights.
Here’s what the protests in Lebanon and Iraq are really about
Protesters will return, but they fear more violence.
While there is a strong will to move forward among protesters in Sadr City, many fear further state-perpetrated violence. State security forces are also concerned, recalling instances of fighting against Sadr’s armed forces in the past, even though Sadr dismissed rumors of violence in his recent statement. Due to seemingly unending cycles of armed conflict in the country, gun ownership, legal or illegal, is high, so a defensive response is not outside the realm of possibility should there be continued violent crackdowns on protesters. One protester from Sadr City threatened: “We have weapons, too. If security forces fire on us, we will fire back.”
Sadr is under a lot of pressure from Iran and aligned paramilitary groups. He knows he cannot afford a military confrontation with rival Shiite paramilitary groups, which have only become stronger in recent years. Sadr and his allies have a significant parliamentary presence and it’s not in their interest to lose their hold on power. Still, the government crisis is one of the worst in recent years and many unknowns remain. Sadr is one of several to watch as powerful actors make moves to alter protests’ trajectory to their benefit.
Don’t miss anything! Sign up to get TMC’s smart analysis in your inbox, three days a week.
Haley Bobseine is an Arabic-speaking Middle East-based independent researcher and analyst.
