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How About Those Election Predictions?

- January 6, 2009

Now that Al Franken is provisionally the junior Senator from Minnesota, Kevin Drum revisits election predictions:

bq. Obama won 365 electoral votes, but nobody got that exactly right. (Thanks, Nebraska!) So I rounded up all the people who predicted 364 electoral votes.

bq. Democrats won 257 House seats and 59 Senate seats (counting the two independents). However, none of the folks in the 364 pool got that exactly right.

bq. But two people came close. Professional prognosticator Sam Wang (founder of the Princeton Election Consortium) guessed 257 House seats and 58 Senate seats, while James Shearer predicted 260 House seats and 59 Senate seats.

bq. Congratulations, James and Sam! A free subscription to Mother Jones is yours for the asking. Just email me your address and I’ll get you signed up.

Ooh, but I predicted 257 and 59! Kevin, can we overlook my prediction of, ahem, 378 electoral votes, especially since Sam Wang waffled on 364 vs. 352? Maybe half a year of Mother Jones?

UPDATE: No dice. Via email, Kevin says “Sadly, the rulings of the judges on the field are final and cannot be reviewed up in the booth.”