There may have been shy Trump supporters after all - November 12, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49179" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Donald Trump speaks at a campaign
Why did Republicans outperform the polls? Joshua Tucker - November 5, 2014 [caption id="attachment_17779" align="aligncenter" width="578"] https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/529864519955537921[/caption] As election results continue to
The secret truths of election forecasting John Sides - September 22, 2014 In case you missed it, election forecasting can be fractious.
Election forecasting: Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang Andrew Gelman - September 19, 2014 Paul Alper pointed me to an explanation by Nate Silver
Good news for Senate Democrats. Maybe. Ben Highton - September 16, 2014 A couple of weeks ago on The Fix, Chris
Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile Joshua Tucker - December 9, 2013 Joshua Tucker: The following is a guest post from London
Asian Americans Voted Democrat: We Should Not Be Surprised Erik Voeten - November 29, 2012 We are delighted to welcome the following guest post by Karthick
How did our House prediction do? Eric McGhee - November 14, 2012 We offered some predictions about House elections in earlier posts
Is Nate Silver’s popularity good or bad for quantitative political science? Joshua Tucker - November 7, 2012 The following is a guest post from political scientists Adam
Is Nate Silver Incentive Compatible? Henry Farrell - November 7, 2012 I'll leave it to John to write the bigger post
What About Tomorrow’s Election Would Prove Me Wrong? (Plus a Prediction) John Sides - November 6, 2012 To date, I haven't made a formal forecast of the
On Moneyball and Romney’s “Momentum” John Sides - October 24, 2012 The lesson of this debate over Romney's momentum -- see
Do Democrats have a 75% chance of taking back the House? Eric McGhee - September 24, 2012 Sam Wang has criticized our model of House elections that
Obama/Romney forecasts: Wang 53/47, Hibbs 47/53, consensus 50/50-ish Andrew Gelman - August 27, 2012 Sam Wang (who's a biologist in his day job and
The Forecasts and The Outcome John Sides - November 3, 2010 [UPDATE, 4:11 pm: Mark Blumenthal of Pollster notified me via
How About Those Election Predictions? John Sides - January 6, 2009 Now that Al Franken is provisionally the junior Senator from