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Fun With Poll Numbers!

- November 15, 2011

Politico’s Arena question yesterday:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll shows that President Barack Obama may be even more vulnerable next year than current polls suggest.

Against a generic, unnamed Republican challenger, Obama tied 43 to 43. When respondents picked between Obama and GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney, the president took at 49 to 43 percent lead. Obama’s job approval rating is hovering around 44 percent, with a dangerously high 51 percent disapproval rating.

Could this poll be right in suggesting that Obama is dangerously close to losing his job? Or is it still too soon to tell how the president will fare in the 2012 election?

Talking Points Memo on the same poll:

A new Politico/Battleground Poll shows Obama edging Romney 49% to 43% — another in a string of recent polls that have shown Obama leading the former Massachusetts governor by statistically significant margins….

Obama’s support has also improved in hypothetical general election match-ups against a generic Republican. As TPM has pointed out, this may have to do with “the generic candidate…morphing into Romney” in the eyes of Republican voters. The Politico/Battleground Poll adds even more evidence that the matchup is tightening: Obama is in a 43% to 43% dead heat with a generic Republican candidate — still worse than his numbers against Romney, but better than he fared against the generic candidate as little as a month ago, when he lost the contest by an average of eight points according to TPM’s Poll Average.