When asked about their emotions over the past year, Americans say they have felt stressed, worried, frustrated and overwhelmed. A majority of Americans described 2020 as a year filled mostly with sadness rather than happiness. But as U.S. vaccinations rise, coronavirus cases continue to fall and pandemic restrictions are lifted, Americans are looking forward to returning to a more normal life. Now, two-thirds describe themselves as optimistic about the year ahead.
This upbeat thinking is consistent with a sense that the United States is a nation of optimists. From Alexis de Tocqueville in the 1800s to surveys today, observers find that Americans stand out from the people of other nations for their distinctive optimism about the future. Americans’ collective hopefulness may fuel the pursuit of the American Dream. In our research, we find that optimism also improves civil society, and it is associated with individuals who get more engaged in politics and have more trust in one another and in government.
How we conducted our research
In our recent article, we consider the political consequences of people’s optimistic expectations for their lives. Some people tend to look at the bright side of things and expect good things to happen, while others worry about what might go wrong. We measured an optimistic disposition using a scale of six questions that we included in the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, two nationally representative surveys of Americans conducted online. We coded people as “optimists” if they answered our questions in ways that indicated they generally expect things to turn out well; those whose answers suggest they rarely expect good things for themselves we coded as “pessimists.” We then explored how optimism and pessimism informed their approaches to politics.
Optimists are more politically engaged and trusting
We find that optimists are more likely to be interested and engaged in politics than pessimists. Those who were most optimistic had a 65 percent likelihood of saying they were “very interested” in politics. For the most pessimistic people in the sample, that dropped to a 46 percent likelihood. Pessimists are less likely to follow current events than optimists. Negative events — like disasters, violence or political conflict — may attract more news coverage, but those with a positive mind-set are more likely to follow politics.
Similarly, optimists are more likely than pessimists to believe that they can be influential in politics, and to discuss politics and participate in campaigns at a higher rate. The most optimistic people in the sample have a 63 percent chance of having discussed politics in the past day, which drops to 48 percent for the most pessimistic. This suggests that an optimistic personality serves as a psychological resource in politics, helping people overcome the costs of becoming politically engaged. Knowing this, we would expect that optimists, rather than pessimists, would bring up politics at the dinner table and attend political rallies.
Not only do optimists believe their personal lives will improve, but they also believe politics will as well. Optimists express more trust in other Americans and in government, as well as higher levels of national pride. The most optimistic respondents have a 40 percent likelihood of saying they trust government “a good deal,” while the most pessimistic have only a 20 percent likelihood of saying the same.
In this, optimists contribute to a collective base of diffuse support in government. Some political scientists consider trust to be the glue that holds society together. Data suggest that optimists rather than pessimists are more likely to provide this type of collective trust.
Are there downsides to being an optimist?
Pessimists might wonder whether optimists are wrong to hope for the best. Optimists may hold unrealistic expectations of government, believing that difficult political challenges can be solved. If optimists see conditions as better than they are, they may fail to hold politicians accountable for economic downturns.
But we fail to find much evidence that optimists misperceive political realities or that they see the world through rose-colored glasses. Optimists and pessimists are just as likely to believe that most big issues facing the country today do not have clear solutions. Optimists are also just as accurate as pessimists in estimating the health of the economy and in projecting their party’s fortunes in the next election. Ultimately, optimism does not appear to hurt viewers’ eyesight about political realities.
In all, we find little evidence that having an optimistic personality has a political downside. Optimism seems to be a civic virtue, one tied to greater civic and political engagement. Optimists contribute trust in the political system, which can promote cooperation, reciprocity and better democratic performance.
In other words, Americans’ tendencies toward optimism don’t just benefit their own lives and social relationships; they also strengthen the political system. As Americans look forward to a better year ahead, this hopefulness may also spread to optimism about U.S. government and public life.
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Carey Stapleton is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Notre Dame.
Jacob Oliver (@jacobnoliver) is a small-town reporter and radio producer in Iowa.
Jennifer Wolak (@j_wolak_) is a professor of political science at the University of Colorado and author of “Compromise in an Age of Party Polarization” (Oxford University Press, 2020).