It now seems increasingly likely that the Netherlands will get a new minority cabinet of the VVD (right, Liberals) and the CDA (center-right Christian Democrats). Geert Wilders’ anti-Islamist PVV will sign an agreement to support the coalition on key socio-economic issues, including a supposed 18 billion euros in cutbacks, but the PVV will not actually join the cabinet. This gives the cabinet majority support (by one seat) on issues covered by the agreement but not on anything else. Ruud Lubbers ( the informateur) has called this construction a “special majority government.”
It is easy to understand what the VVD and the PVV like about this construction. The VVD has become the biggest party for the first time in its history and will not want to miss its chance to deliver the prime-minister and be the senior coalition partner. It would have a much harder time getting the policies it wants in a coalition with the left. The PVV derives its hopes from the success of a similar construction in Denmark where a Conservative-Liberal government has been in power since 2001 with tacit support from the Danish People’s Party. Wilders has strong affiliations with Pia Kjaersgard, the leader of the People’s Party. The construction minimizes the responsibilities Wilders has while still providing a healthy measure of influence over what the cabinet will do.
It is much harder to see what the CDA will get out of this. Indeed, I wrote not long ago that I didn’t think the CDA would or should join such a coalition. The CDA has traditionally been the most influential party in Dutch politics but it suffered a historic loss in the last elections. Moreover, its core values and principles clash seriously with PVV proposals such as instituting a tax on wearing headscarves and outlawing the Koran. Not surprisingly, the decision to move ahead with serious negotiations with the PVV has caused a lot of resistance among prominent CDA members. The CDA party congress may still reject the proposed coalition or may pressure the party leaders to demand more serious concessions from the PVV.
From a bargaining perspective, one would think that a party that is necessary for coalition formation but that has the least at stake in its success would have the most bargaining power. After all, it could threaten to walk away from negotiations and not lose much. Right now it seems like the CDA has simply bent over without getting any meaningful concessions from the PVV. This could be weak leadership or perhaps they have something up their sleeves. I wouldn’t be surprisedl if CDA leaders would protract the negotiations further with demands for public reassurances from the PVV. They may also force a cabinet crisis as soon as the polls appear more favorable.
Even if the government comes into being as it is currently proposed, it is important not to exaggerate the influence Wilders is likely to have. He will surely pull some “Mitch McConnells”: anti-immigration proposals that are popular with a vocal minority but that have no chance of passing and that run counter to constitutional principles. On the other hand, Wilders is an extremely savvy career politician who has somehow managed to create the perception that he is fighting the establishment. He gets away with shouting extreme things to one audience and appearing like a responsible coalition partner to another. It seems like he has convinced the Dutch center that he doesn’t really believe half the things he is saying while he has simultaneously convinced the anti-Islamists that he is their guy. Something will have to give but I am not fully confident that the current crop of Dutch politicians will be able to successfully expose him.