We are again pleased to have “Gregory Weeks”:http://www.politicalscience.uncc.edu/gbweeks/ provide post-election analysis of the first round of the 2009 Chilean presidential and legislative elections:
In Chile, there will be a second round on January 17. Sebastián Piñera received 44%, to Eduardo Frei’s 29.6%, with “MEO”:https://themonkeycage.org/2009/12/2009_chilean_election_preview_1.html at 20% and Jorge Arrate with 6.2%.
MEO announced that he would not endorse either candidate, though made it clear he preferred that Piñera did not win. Jorge Arrate indicated he would support Frei, but with conditions.
Neither coalition gained a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. The Concertación won 54 seats, in addition to the three seats of the Communist Party, with which it ran in alliance. The right now has 58 of the 120 seats. A similar dynamic holds in the Senate. No coalition has a majority: the right now has 17 seats and the Concertación holds 19. However, Alejandro Navarro from the MAS Party leans clearly toward the Concertación (though he campaigned with MEO).
A few quick thoughts:
First, the campaign will be nasty, brutish, and short. Piñera’s lead is significant, but there will be a fight for MEO’s supporters. Piñera and Frei almost immediately insulted each other, while MEO insulted both.
Second, the Concertación is down but not yet out. The coalition was sagging under its own weight after 19 years in the presidency, but the center-left split at the presidential level did not damage its legislative results (see “Matthew Shugart”:http://fruitsandvotes.com/?p=3680 for a pre-election discussion of this point). The binomial system still provides a strong incentive to remain in a coalition.
Third, change is in the air no matter who wins the presidency. In the Chamber of Deputies over one-third (45 of 120) of the winners were elected for the first time, with diverse platforms. Many of those new faces are from the right. The conservative Independent Democratic Union had the most at 13, followed by National Renovation with 8.