Good to Know: Public backlash Alexander Kustov - May 6, 2024 It’s important to understand the role – and risk – of backlash in today’s politics.
What polls can and cannot tell us about the 2024 elections 🎧 Erik Voeten, John Sides, and Michael Tesler - March 28, 2024 John Sides and Michael Tesler talk about what to expect leading up to the Nov. 5 vote.
Trump-Biden voters could decide the 2020 election Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin - May 19, 2020 Nine percent of Trump’s 2016 voters say they’re planning to vote for Biden, our data suggest.
A coronavirus recession would hurt all kinds of Republican candidates — not just Trump Justin de Benedictis-Kessner and Chris Warshaw - March 16, 2020 We looked at how wages influenced votes over the past 50 years
Racially divisive parties have more voters now, but voters aren’t becoming more racist. What explains this? Sheri Berman - December 1, 2019 Populists thrive when the mainstream left and right focus on identity politics.
This inflammatory ad reveals why Republican women of color have a hard time getting elected Catherine Wineinger - October 4, 2019 What we can learn from how former lawmaker Mia Love upheld the GOP’s racial narratives — until she didn’t.
About The Monkey Cage John Sides - June 10, 2019 What is The Monkey Cage?“Democracy is the art of running
The true origins of political polarization John Sides and Andrew B. Hall / Managing Editor - April 10, 2019 This book argues that raising congressional salaries might help.
These were our top 10 most popular posts of 2018 E.J. Graff - December 31, 2018 [caption id="attachment_81973" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump speaks in Fargo, N.D.
What political science can tell us about mass shootings E.J. Graff - October 29, 2018 [caption id="attachment_79520" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A Pittsburgh Steelers logo with one
Democrats and Republicans used to agree about the n-word. Now they don’t. Michael Tesler / Managing Editor - August 30, 2018 Editors’ note: In this archival piece, first published on August
What data on 20 million traffic stops can tell us about ‘driving while black’ John Sides / Managing Editor - July 17, 2018 Editors' note: In this archival post, Good Authority publisher John Sides
Still trying to understand the wedding cake case? Here are your answers. John Sides - June 6, 2018 [caption id="attachment_74197" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A demonstrator holds a sign supporting David
Why the poor don’t vote to soak the rich Daniel Treisman - February 27, 2018 [caption id="attachment_69815" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (iStock)[/caption] In a democracy, income inequality
Yes, Congress could shut the government down tomorrow. It probably won’t. Molly Reynolds - January 18, 2018 Back in December 2017, Sarah Binder, John Sides and I
These were our 10 most popular posts of 2017 E.J. Graff - December 29, 2017 You've had a curious year in 2017 — at least,
Why 41 percent of white millennials voted for Trump Vladimir Medenica, Matthew Fowler, and Cathy Cohen - December 15, 2017 [caption id="attachment_54524" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption] In the
The 2017 TMC Holiday Gift Guide Laura Seay - December 9, 2017 [caption id="attachment_67150" align="aligncenter" width="570"] Sock monkey's first Christmas (Courtesy of
In the U.S., who votes and why? Here’s how the Constitution shapes the answers. Andrew Rudalevige - August 25, 2017 [caption id="attachment_59973" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A Fairfax County Democratic Committee sign
The 2016 TMC Holiday Gift Guide Laura Seay - December 18, 2016 [caption id="attachment_51518" align="aligncenter" width="768"] Sock monkey. (Laura Seay)[/caption] It’s the
2016 was an ordinary election, not a realignment Larry Bartels - November 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_49160" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton face
How incumbency, not gerrymandering, may protect the Republican House majority Michael Barber - October 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_3720" align="aligncenter" width="606"] (Susan Walsh/AP)[/caption] As we enter the
The Democrats are likely to win a majority of House votes, but not a majority of House seats. Again. Eric McGhee - October 21, 2016 [caption id="attachment_3720" align="aligncenter" width="606"] (Susan Walsh/AP)[/caption] John Sides and I
Poll: Many Americans do not think Donald Trump was born into wealth John Sides - October 3, 2016 In a September 2016 debate, it wasn't long before Hillary
Economic anxiety isn’t driving racial resentment. Racial resentment is driving economic anxiety. Michael Tesler - August 22, 2016 [caption id="attachment_45538" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Nacho Doce/Reuters)[/caption] Much debate continues about whether support for
A deep dive into the news media’s role in the rise of Donald J. Trump Kalev Leetaru and John Sides - June 24, 2016 [caption id="attachment_42412" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Donald Trump with Fox News anchor
In Hillary Clinton’s run, the ‘woman card’ works in surprising ways. Here’s how. Kelly Dittmar - June 10, 2016 [caption id="attachment_41931" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets
A Trump campaign will only increase the Democrats’ advantage in data and analytics Daniel Kreiss - May 20, 2016 [caption id="attachment_39147" align="aligncenter" width="4679"] Donald Trump speaks during a rally
Obama thinks he hasn’t gotten credit for a growing economy. He’s right. John Sides - May 5, 2016 [caption id="attachment_26476" align="aligncenter" width="908"] President Obama. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)[/caption] In
Time magazine’s national debt cover story isn’t just misleading. It’s most likely ineffective too. John Sides and Adam Levine - April 22, 2016 Time Magazine just published a controversial cover story calling attention
Voter anger is mostly about party, not social class John Sides - April 12, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35472" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg News)[/caption] The many stories
No, actually Hillary Clinton won Tuesday night Joshua Tucker - March 9, 2016 [caption id="attachment_37034" align="aligncenter" width="908"] During the Hillary Clinton election night
Here’s why Trump’s supporters tolerate his ‘liberal’ economic positions Howard Lavine, Christopher Federico, and Christopher Johnston - March 8, 2016 [caption id="attachment_36924" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump walks
What the Iowa caucus means for the only count that counts: delegates Josh Putnam - February 2, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35200" align="aligncenter" width="2448"] A poster on the wall of
Iowa forecasts point tentatively to Trump and Clinton victories John Sides - February 1, 2016 [caption id="attachment_35117" align="aligncenter" width="768"] (John Sides)[/caption] We're several hours from
A newly released poll shows the populist power of Donald Trump Michael Tesler - January 27, 2016 [caption id="attachment_33811" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks
This is what Trump supporters and your argumentative uncle have in common Matthijs Rooduijn, Gijs Schumacher, and Bert Bakker - December 23, 2015 [caption id="attachment_33909" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate, businessman Donald Trump
The Monkey Cage Holiday Gift Guide Laura Seay - December 11, 2015 [caption id="attachment_33393" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] (Photo: Personal Creations/Creative Commons)[/caption] The holidays
What do your taxes pay for? This month, U.K. citizens get the answer in the mail. Lucy Barnes, Jake Haselswerdt, Ethan Porter, and Avi Feller - November 24, 2015 [caption id="attachment_32621" align="aligncenter" width="908"] The Internal Revenue Service, on May,
Why Washington doesn’t work John Sides, Marc Hetherington, and Thomas Rudolph / Managing Editor - November 5, 2015 Editors' note: In this archival post, first published on Nov. 5,
What game theory tells us about Wednesday's debate and the Republican primary John Sides - September 18, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29584" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Some of the candidates at Wednesday
What game theory tells us about Wednesday’s debate and the Republican primary John Patty - September 18, 2015 [caption id="attachment_29584" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Some of the candidates at Wednesday
Calling George Clooney: Here's a role with a social scientist as the action hero! - September 15, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28881" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] George Clooney and Colin Powell at
Calling George Clooney: Here’s a role with a social scientist as the action hero! Todd Moss - September 15, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28881" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] George Clooney and Colin Powell at
Trump picks a fight with Fox News. Who wins? Kevin Arceneaux - August 12, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28453" align="aligncenter" width="2480"] Businessman and Republican presidential candidate Donald
Do early campaign polls tell us anything? Let's ask a campaign data guru. John Sides - August 1, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28085" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Engineers and developers work at President
Do early campaign polls tell us anything? Let’s ask a campaign data guru. John Sides - August 1, 2015 [caption id="attachment_28085" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Engineers and developers work at President
The unsettled, uncertain, undecided Republican presidential primary (in one graph) John Sides - July 8, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27117" align="aligncenter" width="1310"] Graph by John Sides[/caption] In "The
Why the Republicans can't agree on a presidential candidate (and the Democrats have all but settled on theirs) - May 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_25431" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] The symbols of the Democratic, left,
Why the Republicans can’t agree on a presidential candidate (and the Democrats have all but settled on theirs) Wayne Steger - May 29, 2015 [caption id="attachment_25431" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] The symbols of the Democratic, left,
The Democratic advantage in digital, data, and analytics isn't going away easily John Sides - May 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_24717" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Engineers and developers work at President
The Democratic advantage in digital, data, and analytics isn’t going away easily Daniel Kreiss - May 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_24717" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Engineers and developers work at President
Compulsory voting can actually weaken support for democracy - April 1, 2015 [caption id="attachment_23257" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] Brazil's president and Workers Party candidate
Where does America's low voter turnout matter the most? In local elections John Sides - March 24, 2015 [caption id="attachment_17379" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Harry Cabluck/AP Photo)[/caption] There is a
Where does America’s low voter turnout matter the most? In local elections Zoltan L. Hajnal - March 24, 2015 [caption id="attachment_17379" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (Harry Cabluck/AP Photo)[/caption] There is a
Everything you need to know about our polarized politics (in the palm of your hand) John Sides - March 15, 2015 [caption id="attachment_22391" align="aligncenter" width="2448"] (Photo by John Sides)[/caption] In Jonathan
When presidents fall, literally Kim Yi Dionne - February 15, 2015 Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe fell earlier this month after losing his
Is public funding really electing extremists? Michael Miller and Seth Masket - January 22, 2015 [caption id="attachment_20250" align="aligncenter" width="500"] Source: Creative Commons[/caption] Last week, John Sides described
The gender gap in political ambition starts at an amazingly young age John Sides - January 19, 2015 [caption id="attachment_20222" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] (The Washington Post).[/caption] If you want
The most popular Monkey Cage posts in 2014 Kim Yi Dionne - December 31, 2014 2014 was Monkey Cage's first full calendar year at The
Why the 'war on women' failed in 2014 John Sides - November 26, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18518" align="alignleft" width="300"] Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, (D-Colo.),speaks during
Why the ‘war on women’ failed in 2014 - November 26, 2014 [caption id="attachment_18518" align="alignleft" width="300"] Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, (D-Colo.),speaks during
How well could we have forecast the midterm election without polls? John Sides - November 14, 2014 One issue that animated some conversation during the 2014 campaign
Is the Election Lab forecast too confident in a GOP Senate majority? Eric McGhee - October 21, 2014 With about two weeks to go until Election Day, a
Why late shifts in the polls probably won't help Democrats in Senate races John Sides - October 17, 2014 All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at
Why late shifts in the polls probably won’t help Democrats in Senate races John Sides - October 17, 2014 All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at
Election forecasting: Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang Andrew Gelman - September 19, 2014 Paul Alper pointed me to an explanation by Nate Silver
Good news for Senate Democrats. Maybe. Ben Highton - September 16, 2014 A couple of weeks ago on The Fix, Chris
The opportunities and challenges of online open-access publishing Erik Voeten - August 25, 2014 This week around 7,000 political scientists will descend on Washington for the
Mythical swing voter update Andrew Gelman - August 21, 2014 [caption id="attachment_12923" align="aligncenter" width="908"] (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)[/caption] We received
Why David Perdue is the favorite against Michelle Nunn in Georgia Ben Highton - July 25, 2014 [caption id="attachment_13646" align="aligncenter" width="982"] Republican candidate for U.S. Senate David
Let the millennials grow up (the apathetic youth, and other myths) Kaat Smets and Anja Neundorf - May 19, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] A voting sign hangs on
The surprising parity of the 2012 ground game Dan Hopkins - February 27, 2014 Ryan D. Enos and Anthony Fowler are assistant professors at
The Obama campaign won GOTV gold in the 2012 campaign games John Sides - February 21, 2014 [caption id="attachment_6934" align="aligncenter" width="542" special=""] Obama, flanked by Suzanne Stern,
Politico mocks and then agrees with our Senate forecast John Sides - February 7, 2014 Friday's "Playbook" features some commentary on our Senate forecasting model,
Republicans have a 54 percent chance of taking the Senate Andrew Gelman - January 29, 2014 The other day in this space, John Sides wrote an
Why people call themselves "independent" even when they aren't John Sides - January 10, 2014 This is a guest post by political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and
How the myth of messaging gets politicians into trouble - October 22, 2013 [caption id="attachment_1999" align="aligncenter" width="339" special=""] Sens. Rand Paul and Mitch
Reforming primary elections won't make government better John Sides - October 18, 2013 Amy Walter on our political dysfunction and polarization: The way
Does public broadcasting increase current affairs knowledge? Joshua Tucker - October 18, 2013 [Joshua Tucker: Continuing our series of collaboration with political science
"The definitive account of what really happened and what really mattered in the campaign." John Sides - October 7, 2013 This week I will be writing some posts about a
What do policymakers want from academics? Erik Voeten - September 25, 2013 We are delighted to welcome the following guest post by Paul
Creating More Knowledgeable Americans via Public Broadcasting John Sides - September 3, 2013 This is a guest post by Patrick O’Mahen, a fellow
Flood Exposure and Civic Engagement Erik Voeten - July 31, 2013 From a new paper by Jacob N. Shapiro, Patrick M. Kuhn, C. Christine
The Pathologies of Politico David Karol - June 19, 2013 Politico produces much valuable reporting. Yet it is also frequently
Video of the Roundtable on the 2012 Election, featuring Ezra Klein and Nate Silver John Sides - May 21, 2013 <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_sHelkLTJPE?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Here is a video
Develop New Apps to Make Government Work Better John Sides - April 1, 2013 I'm a judge in a new competition sponsored by ChallengePost
Tweeting Monkeys Joshua Tucker - November 20, 2012 As Twitter becomes an increasingly important part of politics, political
How Often Do Voters Turn Off Campaign Ads? About 50% of the Time. John Sides - November 6, 2012 This is a guest post from UCLA Ph.D. student Michael
For Congressional Candidates, Party Trumps Constituency Eric McGhee - November 5, 2012 This post is jointly authored with Boris Shor of the
How I think about undecided voters Andrew Gelman - November 2, 2012 Reading this excellent post by Lynn Vavreck reminded me of
Out of State, Out of Sample? - October 15, 2012 Obama up in Arizona? Romney leading big in Florida? The
A Non-random Walk Down Campaign Street Andrew Gelman - September 28, 2012 Political campaigns are commonly understood as random walks, during which,
There Go the Undecided Voters Larry Bartels - September 21, 2012 Lynn Vavreck has an informative piece on the New York
Over-the-top claims about politics: one more time Andrew Gelman - September 13, 2012 I'd like to see Paul Krugman's evidence for this claim:
Here We Go Again… Joshua Tucker - September 11, 2012 Niall Ferguson at The Daily Beast yesterday: It’s a paradox.
The Racializing Influence of Romney’s Welfare Ad John Sides - August 20, 2012 <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/0F4LtTlktm0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> This is a guest
The Perils of the Perception of a Politicized Presidency Brendan Doherty - August 3, 2012 The prospective rewards for a president who devotes substantial time