Will protests over the Israel-Hamas war shift U.S. policy?
Two experts share their insights on the growing number of U.S. protest events.
The Trump years launched the biggest sustained protest movement in U.S. history. It’s not over.
Here’s what we learned by counting the protests during the past four years
This year’s low oil prices will hurt these countries the most
We looked at these 3 factors.
What are the Socialist Party’s chances of winning in France? Very low.
[caption id="attachment_53628" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Former French education minister Benoît Hamon
Where are coups most likely to occur in 2017?
[caption id="attachment_43902" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters of Tukish President Tayyip Erdogan
How do you forecast a coup? Don’t forget on-the-ground sources.
[caption id="attachment_44462" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
How the world is proving Martin Luther King right about nonviolence
[caption id="attachment_34516" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Yemeni activist Tawakkol Karman (right, white
A new project wants to forecast mass killings before they happen. Here’s how.
[caption id="attachment_27291" align="aligncenter" width="908"] A Muslim woman visits the Potocari
A new project wants to forecast mass killings before they happen. Here's how.
[caption id="attachment_27291" align="aligncenter" width="908"] A Muslim woman visits the Potocari
Calling George Clooney: Here’s a role with a social scientist as the action hero!
[caption id="attachment_28881" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] George Clooney and Colin Powell at
Calling George Clooney: Here's a role with a social scientist as the action hero!
[caption id="attachment_28881" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] George Clooney and Colin Powell at
Five things you should know about the political crisis in Burundi
Just under two months before a general election, Burundi has
There wasn’t a coup in Lesotho, but will there be?
Lesotho Parliament. (OER Africa, shared with Creative Commons License) Late
There wasn't a coup in Lesotho, but will there be?
Lesotho Parliament. (OER Africa, shared with Creative Commons License) Late
Yes, Forecasting Conflict Can Help Make Better Foreign Policy Decisions: A Response to Salehyan
Over at Dart Throwing Chimp, Jay Ulfelder responds to yesterday's Monkey
Can forecasting conflict help to make better foreign policy decisions?
Below Idean Salehyan grapples with the question whether forecasting conflict can help
How Computers Can Help Us Track Violent Conflicts — Including Right Now in Syria
This is a guest post by David Masad of Caerus
What Can Research on Coups Tell Us About Egypt?
This is a guest post by University of Kentucky political
Around the Polisci Blogosphere
Here's our second installment (last week's was here). Once again
Around the Polisci Blogosphere
This is the inaugural post in what we hope will
Potpourri
* Jay Ulfelder on confirmation bias in comparative politics *
Potpourri
* Pacific Standard magazine -- formerly Miller-McCune -- is well
What do legislatures in authoritarian regimes do?
No, this post is not going to feature another picture
What About Tomorrow’s Election Would Prove Me Wrong? (Plus a Prediction)
To date, I haven't made a formal forecast of the
Forecasting Political Instability
bq. The purpose of the tournament was to evaluate systematically
Potpourri
* Which industry is the biggest donor to federal candidates?
Anti-Film Riots in Middle East Much Smaller than Arab Spring Protests
bq. While media reports on the Arab uprisings discussed the
Potpourri
* Razib Khan brings more data on the subject of
Potpourri
* On leaving academia. Via Chris Zorn. * On experimentation
Can Peace Be Engineered? Institutions, Political Inclusion, and Ethnic Conflict
Continuing our on going partnership with the Comparative Democratization Section of
Two Lessons for Improving Forecasts
bq. For each of four weeks, participants made probabilistic forecasts
My NSF Grant
Now that the House has voted to defund the political
Potpourri
* Campaign spending matters more down the ballot. Ezra Klein
Potpourri
* Jim Warren's dispatch from the Midwest Political Science Association,
Forecasting by the Dashboard Light
Two interesting follow-ups to the discussion about presidential election forecasting
Potpourri
* Why does the Senate sometimes adjourn and sometimes recess?
Potpourri
* Every scientist vs. journalist debate. Guilty as charged. *
Can Computers Recognize Political Events?
I posted earlier on Jay Ulfelder's skepticism. Phillip Schrodt is
Muddling Through
Jay Ulfelder has a nice critique of pieces by David
Prospects for New Democracies in the Arab World: Chronicles of Deaths (and Rebirths) Foretold
This is a guest post from Jay Ulfelder, former research
Forecasting Revolutions: To (Statistically) Model or Not To Model?
The following is a guest post by Jay Ulfelder. ****