A viral poll result got debunked. People are learning the wrong lesson.
Are all polls with opt-in samples wrong? Not quite.
Almost all Republicans will vote for Trump this fall
Ignore recent exit polls to the contrary. Minds will change by November.
The remarkable rise of isolationist Republicans
Trump’s rise has turned back the clock to the 1930s.
Biden’s low poll numbers are exactly what we should expect
We’re back to a world in which a weak economy hurts presidential approval.
Does the public rally behind leaders who get covid-19?
We analyzed public opinion ratings for Macron, Trump and others who became ill.
The WNBA influenced the Georgia Senate race, new research finds
After Kelly Loeffler attacked Black Lives Matter, the WNBA backed one of her opponents — who pushed her into a January runoff
Why did the polls undercount Trump voters?
It’s not because of ‘shy’ Trump voters, our research suggests
Want to know why the networks finally called it for Biden? Here’s the likely reason.
Game theory explains why the news networks held off calling the election for so long, and then all called it at once
How will Americans respond when there’s another split between the electoral college and the popular vote?
Only Democrats think this scenario makes the election less legitimate
Why Trump has received a much smaller approval bump than other world leaders during the pandemic
The country’s highly polarized two-party system discourages ‘rallying around the flag’
Several black mayors have endorsed Bloomberg. Will that influence black voters?
Some endorsements matter more than others
Can Bernie Sanders break out beyond his base in New Hampshire?
Flexibility brings in a wider range of voters — and enough delegates to win the nomination
Has Trump’s approval rating really shot up to 49 percent? Probably not.
More Republicans — and fewer Democrats — are responding to pollsters. That could skew the results.
Would Booker and Castro be in tonight’s debate if polls counted people of color accurately?
Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate. Here’s how that skews the results.
93 percent of Confederate monuments are still standing. Here’s why.
Local governments are often banned from removing them
The impeachment hearings haven’t changed public opinion. This explains why.
Three factors make opinion difficult to shift.
A new poll shows Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic field, with 28 percent.
That’s 7 percent ahead of Sanders and 10 percent ahead of Biden.
Why young white evangelicals aren’t likely to leave the Republican Party
Maybe they don’t like Trump. But that’s not what counts.
Watching the Democratic debate tonight — with Twitter on the little screen? Keep this in mind.
When journalists treat Twitter as representing public opinion, they’re misshaping the news.
Why it can be rational to vote
[caption id="attachment_64714" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (David Goldman/AP)[/caption] I like to run
How election forecasts confuse Americans — and may lead them not to vote at all
[caption id="attachment_64714" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (David Goldman/AP)[/caption] Where were you on
Russia has been meddling in foreign elections for decades. Has it made a difference?
Russian interference in the 2016 election has gotten an enormous amount
It sure looks as if Kirsten Gillibrand is running for president
Will Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) run for president in 2020?
Why 41 percent of white millennials voted for Trump
[caption id="attachment_54524" align="aligncenter" width="960"] (Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption] In the
4 important takeaways from the Virginia governor’s race
Ralph Northam's convincing victory in last night's Virginia governor's race
Voters value competence. That could be bad news for Trump.
When President Trump’s approval rating hit 34 percent in a
The polls didn’t predict Trump’s win in 2016, but this technique did
[caption id="attachment_59789" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A polling station in Montana. (Justin
After the surprise of 2016, here’s how pollsters can do better in predicting election results
[caption id="attachment_59108" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President-elect Donald Trump, alongside his wife,
Sheriffs are enthusiastic about enforcing U.S. immigration law. That makes a big difference.
[caption id="attachment_58998" align="alignleft" width="960"] Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke speaks
How much coverage did CNN actually devote to Clinton’s emails? Here’s the data.
In a world upended by online news and social media,
A modest proposal for better polls: Gallup and Fox News working together
[caption id="attachment_51426" align="aligncenter" width="960"] "I voted in Arlington” stickers are
Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?
[caption id="attachment_49524" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A voter casts a ballot at
How to better communicate election forecasts — in one simple chart
On Oct. 30, the Chicago Cubs were down three games
Polls may be making voters worse at predicting elections
[caption id="attachment_49060" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Voters wait in line to cast
Five key lessons from Donald Trump’s surprising victory
[caption id="attachment_49232" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives
Early voting predict who wins. This is good news for Democrats.
Early voting in the 2016 election is underway in many
Why John Kasich could have a better chance of becoming president than Evan McMullin
[caption id="attachment_47989" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Statuettes of presidential candidates Donald Trump
This new tool allows you to easily visualize 2016 campaign finance data
[caption id="attachment_20250" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Source: Creative Commons[/caption] My New York
Is Donald Trump leading a realignment of the GOP? Maybe not.
[caption id="attachment_36766" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listens
No, actually Hillary Clinton won Tuesday night
[caption id="attachment_37034" align="aligncenter" width="908"] During the Hillary Clinton election night
No, Congressional Republicans haven’t become more polarized.
[caption id="attachment_31501" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Newly elected Speaker of the House
Very liberal cities have racially diverse police forces. So do very conservative ones.
Like everything else these days, policing and the fairness of
Newest midterm forecasts are bullish for the GOP
There’s no more accurate way to predict the day’s weather
Election forecasting: Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang
Paul Alper pointed me to an explanation by Nate Silver
The Election Lab midterm forecast, explained
Nate Cohn tweeted yesterday: And he included the Upshot’s table
The midterm penalty is hurting Democrats in the Senate too
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] A group of visitors walks
Predictions for 2014 and happy New Year!
[caption id="attachment_4568" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Cory Booker, Tweeter-in-Chief (Lynne Sladky/AP)[/caption]
Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile
Joshua Tucker: The following is a guest post from London
"The definitive account of what really happened and what really mattered in the campaign."
This week I will be writing some posts about a
What do policymakers want from academics?
We are delighted to welcome the following guest post by Paul
Demographic trends and political change
Alex Hilke writes: (more…)
Is Nate Silver’s popularity good or bad for quantitative political science?
The following is a guest post from political scientists Adam
Too close to call
From my online NYT column: For months now people I
In Defense of the Electoral College
Over the past few weeks, I have had the enjoyable
The Pro Bowl of Political Science
Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver and the Monkey Cage's own
Prior Experience and Presidential Greatness
My new post at 538 discusses a forthcoming paper by
One man’s outlier is another man’s high-leverage case
Nate Silver, over at fivethirtyeight, objects to the conventional wisdom
Potpourri
* Do paper titles matter for citations? [ht to @JustinWolfers]
Charlie Cook on Public Polls: “Dime Store Junk”?
"Charlie Cook":http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20100928_1190.php?mrefid=email_offtotheraces: bq. More than in any previous cycle that
More on Forecasting (and Reacting to) 2010
Last week "Andy mentioned":https://themonkeycage.org/2010/09/a_calibrated_cook_gives_dems_t.html that my colleague Sandy Gordon's new
Election Report: Australia
"Geoffrey Robinson":http://www.deakin.edu.au/arts-ed/shhs/staff-directory2.php?username=geoffr has very kindly written a post for us,
The way I look at 538 is that it’s pushing analysis of politics closer to Moneyball
and further away from a world in which pundits simply make stuff up. The more that happens
FiveThirtyEight to the NYT
The NYT "announces the deal":http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/the-new-york-times-to-host-political-polling-site-fivethirtyeight/?src=twt&twt=mediadecodernyt here. The New York Times
Revisiting that “Republicans are Crazy” Daily Kos Research 2000 Poll
Remember that "Daily Kos/Research 2000 Poll":http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/2/2/832988/-The-2010-Comprehensive-Daily-Kos-Research-2000-Poll-of-Self-Identified-Republicans from earlier this week
Transcript of Obama Q&A with House GOP
For those old-fashioned (i.e., still have real jobs) types who
Me vs. Karl Rove
Rove predicts that Obama will win 338 electoral votes (pdf).
An Obama Effect? (Part III)
Thanks to the folks at the Monkey Cage for letting