A Russian destabilization campaign put Moldova in the news Isabelle DeSisto and Grigore Pop-Eleches - March 5, 2024 Maia Sandu, Moldova's pro-E.U. president, is up for reelection this fall.
How should we think about a mass exodus of Palestinians from Gaza? Elizabeth N. Saunders and Kelly M. Greenhill - October 20, 2023 Governments and non-state actors use mass migration as a tool of war.
Who votes with Russia? Erik Voeten - October 2, 2023 A number of countries refuse to support Ukraine in the United Nations – especially countries that import arms from Russia.
Four reasons Belarus isn’t likely to send troops to Ukraine Tatsiana Kulakevich - September 14, 2022 Fighting Russia’s war would not help Lukashenko stay in power
How many Ukrainian refugees have been trafficked? We won’t know for years. Laura A. Dean - July 21, 2022 Their fates will depend in part on which country they’ve landed in – and whether that country has comprehensive policies and services
The Ukraine crisis may reinvigorate Eastern European democracies Nikolay Marinov and Maria Popova - May 23, 2022 Countries are now focused on Russia vs. Europe, rather than internal corruption
Ukraine’s Eurovision victory was political. So is Eurovision itself. Lauren Gilbert - May 16, 2022 Eurovision songs and voting are sometimes war by other means
Cyber hacktivists are busy undermining Putin’s invasion Max Smeets and Brita Achberger - May 12, 2022 Here’s what we know about one group
Do people in Donbas want to be ‘liberated’ by Russia? John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal, and Gwendolyn Sasse - April 14, 2022 We surveyed people in Ukraine’s contested eastern region to see what they wanted. Here’s what we found.
European countries are welcoming Ukrainian refugees. It was a different story in 2015. Lamis Abdelaaty - March 23, 2022 It’s not merely a shared ‘Europeanness,’ this research finds
The E.U. granted Ukrainian refugees temporary protection. Why the different response from past migrant crises? Nicholas R. Micinski - March 16, 2022 People who fled the war in Ukraine wait for relocation
Will Russians continue to support Putin’s war in Ukraine? William Pyle and Michael Alexeev - March 15, 2022 Patriotic attitudes run high in Russia, our research finds
Ukraine invasion tests the relationship between Russia and China Elizabeth Wishnick and Andrew Taffer - March 14, 2022 Their ‘unlimited’ partnership may have some limits after all
More than 2 million people have already fled the Ukraine conflict. How will they fare in new countries? Peter Esaiasson, Nazita Lajevardi, and Jacob Sohlberg - March 9, 2022 If European nations want to welcome these refugees, here’s what they can learn from our research
Even Russian-speaking Ukrainians don’t want to be evacuated to Russia or Belarus Michał Bilewicz - March 7, 2022 The research shows that Russian speakers across much of Ukraine identify as Ukrainian
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t rely on cyberwarfare. Here’s why. Shawn W. Lonergan, Erica D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen - March 7, 2022 Cyber operations don’t win wars, our research finds.
Worried about the state of democracy? Here are some reasons to be optimistic instead. Miguel Angel Lara Otaola - March 2, 2022 These factors help countries return to democracy after an authoritarian spell, our research finds
Putin is gambling his future — and Russia’s Zhaotian Luo and Scott Gehlbach - February 19, 2022 What would an invasion of Ukraine mean for Russia?
Will Russia recognize the independence of two eastern Ukraine republics? Here’s what people there think. John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal, and Gwendolyn Sasse - February 17, 2022 Those who live in the Donbas region care more about bread-and-butter issues, our latest surveys reveal
Putin likes to talk about Russians and Ukrainians as ‘one people.’ Here’s the deeper history. Jeffrey Mankoff - February 9, 2022 For centuries, Moscow has worried that foreign powers are scheming to separate Ukraine from Russia.
If Russia invades Ukraine, what happens next? David Lake - January 22, 2022 Many Ukrainians wouldn’t favor a pro-Russian leader — but would the U.S. support an anti-Russian insurgency?
Kazakhstan called for assistance. Why did Russia dispatch troops so quickly? Alexander Cooley - January 9, 2022 Preserving autocracies is a primary goal for regional organizations like the CSTO.
The E.U. continues to sanction Belarus. Some Belarusians approve. Gwendolyn Sasse and Félix Krawatzek - January 5, 2022 But our surveys reveal why that support may be waning
The E.U. renewed its Russia sanctions last week. Not all Europeans are in favor. Paulina Pospieszna, Joanna Skrzypczyńska, Dawid Walentek, and Clara Portela - December 22, 2021 How Europe’s leaders keep the consensus on sanctions — but soften the economic blow at home
The Belarus border crisis shows it’s getting easier to ‘weaponize’ refugees Sigrid Lupieri - November 21, 2021 Countries like Belarus are counting on E.U. governments to see refugees as a security threat
The U.N. has a plan to end AIDS by 2030. But Russia doesn’t like it. Renu Singh and Mara Pillinger - September 14, 2021 The focus on social policies to end discrimination ratcheted up political disagreements
The E.U. is furious that Belarus allowed more than 4,000 migrants to cross into Europe Gerasimos Tsourapas - August 12, 2021 As countries in the global north outsource refugee management to the global south, expect more poor countries to ‘weaponize’ migration.
The Kremlin has a new toolkit for shutting down independent news media Tom Paskhalis, Katerina Tertytchnaya, and Bryn Rosenfeld - June 28, 2021 Worldwide, authoritarians are finding less overt ways to shut down independent news — and independent outlets are finding new ways to stay alive
Belarus forced down a plane because it couldn’t shut down an app Aliaksandr Herasimenka - May 28, 2021 Telegram became a cornerstone of last summer’s anti-government protests
Belarus’s hijacking isn’t a show of strength. It’s a sign of weakness. Sofie Bedford, Olga Onuch, and Aliaksandr Herasimenka - May 27, 2021 Poorly informed leaders with few allies are more likely to take risks, the research shows
How can the world hold Belarus accountable? Alexander Cooley - May 25, 2021 Technology has become the ‘long arm’ of authoritarians
The E.U. can’t stick to its Belarus sanctions. Will this time be different? Alexander Lanoszka - May 25, 2021 Further sanctions might harm ordinary Belarusians — and push leaders and businesses closer to Russia
If Belarus believed the Ryanair flight was a threat, it had authority to make it land. That’s a big if. Ashley Nunes - May 23, 2021 Global rules give countries ‘complete and exclusive sovereignty’ over their airspace but also expect them not to manufacture threats
When Belarus forced down a plane, it may have committed state-sponsored hijacking Yuval Weber - May 23, 2021 International treaties outlaw false communications that might endanger a flight
A new survey of the Ukraine-Russia conflict finds deeply divided views in the contested Donbas region Kristin Bakke, John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal, and Gwendolyn Sasse - February 11, 2021 Many in the breakaway territory see a future with Russia
Russia arrested opposition leader Alexei Navalny, to widespread protests. Joshua Tucker - January 27, 2021 What’s happening, part 1.
Does the public rally behind leaders who get covid-19? Ryan Carlin - January 21, 2021 We analyzed public opinion ratings for Macron, Trump and others who became ill.
Putin’s arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny is a sign of weakness, not strength Samuel Greene - January 18, 2021 Don’t expect mass street protests
In dozens of countries, governments rely on Internet shutdowns to hide repression Sophie Dyer, Likhita Banerji, and Anita R. Gohdes - December 3, 2020 Social media rhetoric from politicians, citizens and others helped influence political moves
Moldova’s new president is likely to seek closer ties with Europe. Russia won’t be pleased. Marius Ghincea - November 23, 2020 The outgoing president favored a strong relationship with Moscow.
Coronavirus is really bad news for Belarus President Lukashenko, for unexpected reasons Samuel Greene and Anna Lyubimtseva - November 12, 2020 People are tuning into dissident news and turning off state TV because they’re desperate for real information
Chile voted to write a new constitution. Will it promise more than the government can deliver? Peter Siavelis and Jennifer Piscopo - October 29, 2020 In a global first, women will make up half the constitutional convention
Election officials annulled Kyrgyzstan’s October election. Here’s why. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili and Colleen Wood - October 9, 2020 Protests in the Central Asian state have pushed out governments before.
If Putin sends troops to Belarus, don’t expect Russians to applaud Maria Snegovaya - September 14, 2020 Russians don’t like military adventures in bad economic times, my research finds
There’s more to Belarus’s ‘Telegram Revolution’ than a cellphone app Tetyana Lokot, Olga Onuch, Mariëlle Wijermars, and Aliaksandr Herasimenka - September 10, 2020 New surveys show protesters had to be creative to share information.
The Belarus protests erupted because of these 4 things Svitlana Chernykh and Sam R. Bell - August 25, 2020 That’s what we learned from 30 years of global election data
What’s driving the Belarus protests? Kristin Bakke, John O’Loughlin, and Gerard Toal - August 21, 2020 Our survey reveals some clues, as well as generational divides
Belarus’s president looks for his sixth election victory on Sunday. He has a well-used playbook to win. Tatsiana Kulakevich - August 7, 2020 Alexander Lukashenko increasingly relies on law enforcement agencies to repress the opposition.
Belarus votes on Sunday. Our new survey shows what young voters are thinking. Félix Krawatzek - August 7, 2020 In a significant shift, 75 percent of young Belarusians distrust their president
What’s Vladimir Putin’s end game? Other post-Soviet autocrats give a few clues. Timothy Frye - July 2, 2020 Here’s why he will try to stay in power.
The Belarus government is largely ignoring the pandemic. Here’s why. Tatsiana Kulakevich - April 21, 2020 With elections coming, this could be a risky move
Yes, Putin cares about Trump’s impeachment trial — but not for the reason you might imagine Jessica Pisano - January 24, 2020 He has another target in mind
What Lt. Col. Vindman’s critics get wrong about Jews who fled the Soviet Union Yelena Biberman and Matthew Simkowitz - November 19, 2019 To criticize his impeachment testimony, Republicans suggest there was a country called Ukraine in the 1970s.
Where else do leaders do what Trump is accused of? Start with Russia. Scott Radnitz - October 3, 2019 And he has plenty of chances to do it again.
Chernobyl’s effects go far beyond what you’re seeing on HBO. It shook up geopolitics for years. Mariana Budjeryn - July 15, 2019 From the Soviet Union’s fall to Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament, the disaster changed the region.
Ukraine elected a sitcom president. What can Western politicians learn from this script? Mitchell A. Orenstein - April 28, 2019 Voters were drawn to Volodymyr Zelensky’s comedic wit — but also his flexibility.
Will Russia try to occupy Belarus? Ryhor Astapenia - March 27, 2019 Here are the 4 things you need to know about the two nations’ falling out.
Kazakh President Nazarbayev has resigned. Here are three things to watch. Eric McGlinchey - March 20, 2019 A managed succession may be a hard promise to keep.
Without the INF Treaty, Europe could see a new missile power. (Spoiler: It’s not Russia.) Mariana Budjeryn - February 25, 2019 The treaty also curtailed missile programs in former Soviet states.
5 things to know about Russia’s Vostok-2018 military exercises Dmitry Gorenburg - September 13, 2018 Military analysts around the world are keeping a close eye
Why is Belarus cracking down on independent journalists — and the Internet? Tatsiana Kulakevich - August 15, 2018 [caption id="attachment_76715" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, top center,
Russia used to see itself as part of Europe. Here’s why that changed. Andrew Foxall - June 18, 2018 [caption id="attachment_74544" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a
How dangerous is it when Trump calls some immigrants ‘animals’? Daniel Solomon and Aliza Luft - May 25, 2018 [caption id="attachment_73790" align="aligncenter" width="960"] President Trump speaks to media representatives
This is why North Korea reacted so strongly to Bolton’s mention of the ‘Libya model’ Elizabeth N. Saunders - May 17, 2018 [caption id="attachment_73514" align="aligncenter" width="960"] People watch a TV screen showing
What’s behind Alexei Navalny’s digital challenge to Vladimir Putin’s regime? Five things to know. Aliaksandr Herasimenka - February 23, 2018 On Feb. 22, 2018, Russian anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny was
Why would authoritarian Belarus liberalize cryptocurrencies? Tatsiana Kulakevich - January 25, 2018 The rise of virtual currencies is pushing governments around the
100,000 troops will engage in Russia’s Zapad-2017 war games Simon Saradzhyan - September 13, 2017 [caption id="attachment_63490" align="aligncenter" width="960"] A man watches Russian military jets
In Belarus, Europe’s “last dictator” is actually allowing protest. Here’s why. Paul Schuler, Christopher Fariss, and Charles Crabtree - March 24, 2017 [caption id="attachment_55778" align="alignnone" width="960"] A protester shouts slogans and holds
The U.S. was ripe for a women’s protest. And more are likely. Dursun Peksen and Amanda Murdie - January 28, 2017 This is the third post in our series on what social
U.S.-Venezuela relations will probably deteriorate under Trump. Ask ExxonMobil why. Timothy Gill - December 29, 2016 [caption id="attachment_51878" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and U.S.
A presidential candidate can’t threaten to imprison his opponent if he wants to live in a democracy Joshua Tucker - October 11, 2016 In the aftermath of the second U.S. presidential debate on
Read this book if you want to know what China’s citizens really think about their government Sam Winter-Levy and Nikita Lalwani - October 4, 2016 [caption id="attachment_47215" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, shakes
Putin just sent Armenia MiG-29 fighters and military aid. Here are three key reasons why. Samuel Ramani - April 14, 2016 In February 2016, the Russian air force announced that MiG-29
Ukraine has been part of Europe for nearly a millennium. Christian Raffensperger - April 7, 2016 [caption id="attachment_38816" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Flags of the Dutch E.U. presidency
How long will Putin stay in power? Nelli Babayan - March 20, 2016 [caption id="attachment_22253" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Russian President Vladimir Putin talks to
Ukraine isn’t unified yet. These 4 charts explain. Grigore Pop-Eleches and Robertson Graeme - November 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_32142" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Ukrainian activists demonstrate in front of
6 reasons not to worry about Russia invading the Baltics Robert Person - November 12, 2015 [caption id="attachment_32090" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Russian President Vladimir Putin and Serbian
Surprise! Belarus’s Lukashenko wins a fifth term in a landslide! (Okay, no surprise. Here’s what happened.) Matthew Frear - October 22, 2015 [caption id="attachment_31002" align="aligncenter" width="908"] Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, left, Belarus
Hey, Putin, have you seen how much China is investing in Ukraine? Samuel Ramani - July 24, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27756" align="aligncenter" width="982"] Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets
What the European Court judgment on same-sex couples in Italy means Erik Voeten - July 21, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27670" align="aligncenter" width="982"] Participants at the Mediterranean Pride 2015
Belarus's president has scheduled the next election. Has he already won his fifth term? - July 15, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27466" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] A Belarusian detainee, arrested during the
Belarus’s president has scheduled the next election. Has he already won his fifth term? Tatsiana Kulakevich - July 15, 2015 [caption id="attachment_27466" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] A Belarusian detainee, arrested during the
How do you measure 'democracy'? - June 23, 2015 [caption id="attachment_26386" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] A woman prepares to vote in
How do you measure ‘democracy’? Seva Gunitsky - June 23, 2015 [caption id="attachment_26386" align="aligncenter" width="1484"] A woman prepares to vote in
How democratic institutions are making dictatorships more durable Erica Frantz and Andrea Kendall-Taylor - March 19, 2015 [caption id="attachment_22871" align="alignnone" width="620"] Supporters of Sudanese President and National
Five fatal flaws in realist analysis of Russia and Ukraine Alexander Motyl - March 3, 2015 [caption id="attachment_22253" align="alignnone" width="620"] Is Russian President Vladimir Putin rational
The best and worst elections of 2014 Pippa Norris - February 16, 2015 [caption id="attachment_21285" align="aligncenter" width="1430"] The global map of electoral integrity,
Mistrust about political motives in contested Ukraine John O’Loughlin and Gerard Toal - February 13, 2015 [caption id="attachment_21233" align="aligncenter" width="992"] Left to right, Russian President Vladimir
How the West selectively promotes democracy through sanctions Michael Wahman and von Soest - January 10, 2015 [caption id="attachment_20012" align="aligncenter" width="620"] Supporters of President Nicolas Maduro
How Putin turned Ukraine to the West Oxana Shevel - October 29, 2014 [caption id="attachment_17378" align="alignnone" width="620"] Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko holds his
Lessons from 25 years of post-communism: the importance of reform, democracy, and geography Daniel Treisman - June 10, 2014 [caption id="attachment_11538" align="aligncenter" width="512" special=""] Berliners sing and dance on
What Putin gets about soft power Tomila Lankina and Kinga Niemczyk - April 15, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special="MANDATORY CREDIT "] Russian President Vladimir
Why Ukraine’s Euromaidan is not spreading to other post-Soviet states Nozima Akhrarkhodjaeva and Farid Guliyev - March 22, 2014 [caption id="attachment_8465" align="aligncenter" width="620" special=""] An anti-government protester runs during
Why the leaders of Kazakhstan are not (yet) losing sleep over Crimea Galymzhan Kirbassov - March 17, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] People holding Russian flags gather
Why Crimea might be worse off under Russian rule Tomila Lankina - March 9, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Volunteers of a self-defense group
Why Ukraine's crisis keeps central Asian leaders up at night Sean Roberts and Marlene Laruelle - March 7, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] A protester holds a placard
Why Ukraine’s crisis keeps central Asian leaders up at night Sean Roberts and Marlene Laruelle - March 7, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] A protester holds a placard
Is Crimean independence or annexation a good outcome for Russia? Nadiya Kravets and Helena Yakovlev-Golani - March 6, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] Members of a pro Russian
A graph that shows how the Ukraine got stuck between the West and Russia Erik Voeten - March 3, 2014 The graph above shows how the positions of the United
How Putin's worldview may be shaping his response in Crimea Joshua Tucker - March 3, 2014 [caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="606" special=""] A woman holds a board