Brazilians are voting Sunday in the first round of elections for a variety of offices. This election has received particular attention, as President Jair Bolsonaro — a retired member of the armed forces — seeks reelection. Bolsonaro, who is widely known for being tough on crime, once stated that “a police officer who does not kill is not a police officer.”
But the buck does not stop with him: compared to Brazil’s 2018 elections, the number of active and retired police and military officials running for public office has grown by 27 percent.
Why is campaigning on crime and violence a popular strategy among candidates across levels of government? And what does it mean for the Brazilian electorate? To analyze this, my research looks at the ways in which politicians campaign on public security. My fieldwork in Brazil during the 2022 election season includes over 60 interviews, including with politicians and campaign staff for state and national office. In addition, I use a survey to analyze what leads citizens — particularly progressives — to support “tough-on-crime” candidates.
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What is the current situation of insecurity in Brazil, and what do voters want?
According to the Brazilian Forum on Public Security’s annual report, in 2021 Brazil recorded 20.4 percent of the world’s homicides — yet the country accounts for just 2.7 percent of the global population. The report indicates 78 percent of Brazil’s homicide victims were Black and 50 percent were between the ages of 12 and 29.
Concerns about personal safety can affect voter preferences. I conducted an online survey in Latin America in March 2021 — including 1,500 Brazilians — with a sample designed to approximate the population in terms of gender, age, socioeconomic status and region. My findings suggest that perceptions of insecurity and the belief that crime is driven by gangs can lead even the most progressive voters to support tough-on-crime candidates. Other research shows that victimization has a similar effect, and that shocks in the crime rate can increase the vote share of law enforcement candidates.
This makes crime and violence an important issue for Brazilian politicians. Signals to voters that candidates will be tough on crime can increase support at the polls, and likely helped Bolsonaro win the 2018 election.
How are politicians campaigning on this issue?
Research indicates that candidates for the 2022 election are campaigning on public security in three main ways.
First, the increase in the number of active and retired law enforcement personnel running for office is a powerful signal. Some candidates register with their professional titles to communicate their position to voters — examples include “Colonel Salema” or “Sergeant Clemente.” Research indicates that the use of professional names can help improve the likelihood of election. This phenomenon is not just happening among conservatives — in the state of Bahia, a police officer and member of the left-leaning Workers’ Party is running for election as “Major Denice.”
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Second, experts from the Network of Security Observatories in Brazil have called attention to other, more violent, methods politicians may be using. For example, gubernatorial candidates seeking reelection seem to be deploying the police at increased rates to combat criminal groups. My interviews with politicians and experts suggest this is an effort to show a commitment to crack down on crime.
Here’s an example, from Rio de Janeiro — where the number of police operations jumped 18 percent in the months leading up to the election, compared to the same period in 2021. Rio’s Governor Cláudio Castro, a Bolsonaro supporter, is seeking reelection and has applauded police operations. He claims they are fighting organized criminal groups.
My research suggests leftist candidates are also working to capture votes from citizens concerned about security matters, including centrist voters and those who believe the left’s typical approaches are too “soft.” These candidates are shifting their focus away from human rights protection and crime prevention — instead campaigning on increased investment in the police, including better salaries and additional spending on intelligence and technology.
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Some candidates even changed their policy priorities altogether. The leading progressive candidate for governor in Rio de Janeiro — Marcelo Freixo, from the Brazilian Socialist Party — built his career by fighting to defend human rights. But Freixo recently shifted gears, speaking out against the legalization of drugs, and about why is important “to put criminals in jail.”
The focus on being tough on crime is concerning
This election season, this focus has seen clear short-term consequences. And there are important long-term consequences.
In the short term, campaigning to appear tough on crime has taken a deadly toll — in the month of May alone 41 individuals were killed in police operations in Rio de Janeiro, including 22 deaths in the city’s second-most lethal police operation. This underscores the importance of restrictions on aggressive police operations, which recent research indicates can markedly decrease police use of force — and police killings — and bring about a decline in civil homicides.
In the long term, experts point out a number of possible negative consequences of the overrepresentation of law enforcement officials in politics. One report suggests that the election of city council members with careers in law enforcement can increase the homicide rate — particularly among low-income, non-White men — by favoring the allocation of police and state resources to communities that voted for them. Further, my interviews suggest that law enforcement candidates’ investment in efforts to “prevent” crime often involve investing in military schools for youths.
More broadly, if Brazilians elect candidates who claim to be tougher on crime, it would be a powerful and consequential message from voters. This outcome would represent continued citizen support for policies that the research suggests have little to no demonstrated efficacy — and support for a presidency that has almost tripled civilian gun ownership in three years. Further, it could point to increased threats to Brazil’s democracy, a possible second Bolsonaro presidency and the continuation of a repressive approach to public security.
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Isabel Laterzo (@IsabelLaterzo) is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and a Fulbright-Hays DDRA Fellow. The views expressed in this article are those of Isabel Laterzo and do not represent the views of the Fulbright Program, the U.S. Department of Education or any of its partner organizations.