The map below (from the New York Times) shows the change between 2020 and 2024 in the presidential election results in U.S. counties. The counting of ballots is ongoing, but the pattern is already obvious. Trump did better in almost every county than he did four years ago.
Widespread changes like these should lead us to broad explanations, not narrow explanations. Here’s what I mean.
Narrow explanations tell stories about individual states, counties, even cities. They tell stories about individual groups within the electorate – women, men, Latinos, young people, young men, single people, young single men, etc. The constant tweeting of county results on election night invites us to imagine a specific story about that place. What happened in Miami-Dade? Ooh, look at Queens! And even though people should know better, the constant tweeting of preliminary exit poll numbers invites us to imagine a specific story about each group.
But Donald Trump did better in all kinds of places – red states and blue states, rural places, cities, and so on. So the initial explanations we should seek have to be broader than just one place or one group.
The simplest story is one that Michael Tesler and I wrote about back in March. A spike in inflation dragged down Joe Biden’s approval rating, which never improved very much even as inflation receded. Public views of the economy remained less positive than other indicators – economic growth, employment – would predict.
Replacing Biden with Kamala Harris opened up the possibility that she could outperform his approval rating. Some research suggests that the incumbent president’s record matters less when the incumbent is not running. Of course, Harris was also part of the incumbent administration herself.
As of March, Biden’s approval rating was consistent with a 3-point Democratic loss in the national popular vote. At the latest tally, early on Nov. 6, Trump has a 3.5-point lead. That may change as the remaining voters are counted, but it’s likely to be consistent with what Biden’s approval rating alone predicted.
As we get more and better data – a process that will take months, to be sure – we can add important details. But the central plot lines of the story are already clear, and not that dissimilar from four years ago.
In 2020, an unpopular incumbent lost reelection.
In 2024, an unpopular incumbent’s party lost reelection.
The circumstances and the reasons for their unpopularity differed. Nevertheless, their struggles provided the tailwind for the challenger. That has put Donald Trump back in the White House.
