In “The Art of War,” the Chinese general and strategist Sun Tzu said: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”
Kevin McCarthy pulled out of the race for the House Speakership on Thursday. As with John Boehner’s resignation, this was both unexpected but, in hindsight, completely predictable. Neither Boehner not McCarthy have the clear support of a majority of the House. Furthermore, McCarthy stood only to lose if Thursday’s votes had taken place. Both of them seem to have taken Sun Tzu’s advice.
The speakership election is, to put it bluntly, weird. Each member votes publicly and in alphabetical order. And each member can vote for anybody they want. That is, everybody’s technically a candidate for the speakership. So, McCarthy can still be elected Speaker regardless of whether he’s thrown his hat in the ring.
Because of this quirk in the election, McCarthy stood only to lose from the vote scheduled for Thursday: he has nothing to gain from a fractured caucus vote would serve as an opportunity for the conservative wing of the party to coordinate their efforts. In addition, over the coming weeks, observers would wonder whether he could hold onto the Freedom Caucus members’ votes in the speakership election. Furthermore, even if he did ultimately win the speakership, people would always wonder what deals McCarthy had struck with the conservative wing of his party.
Right now, the GOP leadership’s principal advantage is that they are, well, the leadership. They control if and when votes occur. That’s a power that’s easy to lose, but very difficult to get back.
In the end, I have a growing suspicion that Boehner will remain Speaker through the end of the Congress. I’m not confident in that yet, but Boehner’s still in charge, and I suspect that he will not let the GOP Conference choose a “nominee” for Speaker until he thinks that nominee will have the clear support of 218 Republicans (as I recommended).
And, unless McCarthy or Paul Ryan put themselves forward, I’m skeptical that such a candidate will emerge. After all, Thursday’s meeting has not been rescheduled, and Boehner’s willing to serve until a successor is chosen.
John W. Patty is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
Updated Oct. 11, 2023