A couple follow-ups to my WSJ “post”:http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2011/01/25/the-state-of-the-union/.
First, I neglected to mention “this paper”:http://www.jstor.org/stable/3449901 (gated) by Garry Young and William Perkins (hat tip to Brandon Bartels). Here is the abstract:
bq. The rise of alternative viewing choices, brought about by the spread of cable television, has effectively reduced the audience for major presidential addresses. Has this change moderated the influence of major presidential speeches on public opinion? After examining the period from 1954 to 2002, we provide evidence that the impact of presidential rhetoric in State of the Union addresses on public opinion has diminished as cable has flourished.
Second, this came via email:
bq. The theatrics of tonight’s speech are far different than usual and give the White House a definite communications advantage as far as the budget is concerned.
bq. The usual schedule is for the SOTU to be delivered 3-5 days before the budget is released so the president has a very short time to talk about the big positive themes included in the speech before the specific revenue and spending changes become the news. In some years this has started to happen within just a day of the SOTU because the budget details have started to leak or been leaked.
bq. This year will be different because the budget won’t be sent to Congress until the week of February 14 at the earliest. That will give the White House 3 weeks or more to keep the focus on its themes and dreams without having to shift to defending the specific proposals. That will make it far tougher for the GOP to criticize what the president talks about and push them to find creative ways of changing the discussion back to the Republican agenda.
TBD, I suppose.